Taking Down 2006 Regular Season Win Totals
by Robert Ferringo - 07/27/2006
Here are, in order, my top nine plays for NFL regular season win total over/unders. I fully endorse a wager on any one of these top selections, and have chosen the best line from either Pinnacle Sportsbook or Bodog. Some may consider that cheating, but I'm in mid-season form when it comes to line shopping!
Without further ado, here are my choices:
New Orleans: Under 7 - All the warm and fuzzy feelings from drafting Reggie Bush have pretty much been smashed on the windshield of Reality. The Saints have a new quarterback with a bum shoulder, still don't have full support from its owner or fan base and don't have any defensive playmakers to speak of. Throw in that they play in the second-toughest division and this may be my Lock on this list.
Dallas: Under 9.5 - This is a weak line, and if it wasn't for all the square Cowboy money rolling on The 'Boys it would be torn to pieces. The Cowboys are undisciplined, have several head cases (besides T.O.), and are weak on both the offensive line and defensive front seven. Oh yeah, they also play in the toughest division in football. I don't see double-digits for Dallas.
Detroit: Over 6.5 - I know the Lions are the sheik sleeper pick for a lot of folks. Well count me in. I am not terribly impressed by Detroit, but I don't see a six-win team here. Both the offensive and defensive lines are very solid, with guys capable of taking it to the next level. If their linebackers stay healthy they could have a very good defense. Also, I believe Mike Martz brings a ton to the table for a lackluster offense. The Cats will surprise.
Cincinnati: Under 9 - This may seem like a reactionary pick to Cincy's bad press lately. It's not. Carson Palmer either won't be ready to start the season or won't be 100 percent. Also, the defense can't stop anybody - and I mean anybody - and that was before their leading tackler got suspended for being a dope fiend.
Kansas City: Under 9.5 - I absolutely refuse to crown a club with absolutely no defense to speak of as a 10-win team (see: Cincinnati). Especially when you can make a simple argument that both Denver and San Diego are better than the Chiefs. There has been no significant upgrade on either side of the ball and no change in philosophy. That means we'll get what we've come to expect out of the aging Chiefs: mediocrity.
Tennessee: Over 5 - I love this pick. Very quietly I think the Titans had a great offseason. I don't like the way they dealt with the Steve McNair situation, but this is a deeper and more experienced team. Kevin Mawae was a nice pickup for a weak offensive line, David Thorton gives Keith Bulluck linebacking help, Chris Hope will stabilize the secondary, and David Givens brings experience to the No. 2 receiving slot.
Chicago: Over 9 - The Bears return all 22 starters from the No. 2 seed in the NFC last year. Their division has three new coaches and all kinds of quarterback issues. Chicago also has a cushy schedule, with crossover games against the weak NFC West and easy AFC East. Bad karma abounds, however, surrounding several players unhappy with their contracts. But even that shouldn't keep a club with Super Bowl-potential under 10 wins.
Buffalo: Under 6.5 - If there's one thing I know about Tricky Dick Jauron it's that he can take a good team and make it mediocre, and take a mediocre team and make it bad. With no offensive line, horrid receivers, no quarterback and an aging defense with holes in the secondary, the Bills are in for another cold winter.
Jacksonville: Under 9.5 - The Jaguars are a very good team, and I fully expect them to push for a playoff slot again this season. However, they benefited from a cupcake schedule last year, and were man-handled by top-notch competition. The shocking retirement of Jimmy Smith further weakens an already thin receiving corps. I don't think they'll miss by much, but I expect the Jags to regress a bit this season.
Here are three other plays that just missed making my top tier. I like each pick, but don't feel as strongly about them:
Baltimore: Over 7.5 - I would feel much better about this pick if they had dumped Jamal Lewis and kept Chester Taylor, but what can you do. The defense is no longer dominant, but it's good enough. And if they can get 12 games out of McNair I could see an 8-8 year.
Atlanta: Over 8 - Watch out for the Dirty Birds. I am a notorious Mike Vick basher, but I think they can win in spite of him. I really like what they've done defensively and they can still run the ball. If Tampa Bay slips, the Falcons will be there to take advantage.
New York Giants: Under 9 - All four teams in the NFC East have win totals set at 8.5 or higher. Someone has to finish in the basement, and my vote goes for the Giants. I think they are very talented offensively, and have some defensive standouts, but I'm not sold on their toughness or their depth.
Below is what I think will happen, but I don't fully endorse a play. There is just too little value or line weakness on these teams. I'm putting this out there more as a touchstone for you to bounce your own thoughts about a certain team off of. Maybe you see something I don't, or maybe my feelings echo your own:
Arizona: Under 8 - I actually really like the Cardinals this season, but until they prove otherwise they're still losers.Carolina: Over 10 - They'll finish 10-6. Brutal schedule, but very good team. Cleveland: Under 6.5 - Like Arizona, I love what the Browns have done, but they haven't earned the benefit of the doubt. Denver: Over 10 - Last four seasons they've won 9, 10, 10 and 13 games. Green Bay: Under 6.5 - They're not as bad as people think, but they aren't a .500 team either.
Houston: Over 5.5 - They have six-win talent on that team.
Indianapolis: Under 11.5 - I think their offseason losses were significant.
Miami: Under 9 - Do you trust Joey Harrington or Dante Culpepper?
Minnesota: Over 8 - If Detroit isn't the surprise in the North, the Vikings will be.
New England: Under 10.5 - Is this team honestly better than last year's 10-win bunch?
New York Jets: Over 5.5 - Somehow the Jets are a good "bad" team, if that makes sense. The always manage to scrape out wins.
Oakland: Under 6.5 - Aaron Brooks.
Philadelphia: Under 8.5 - I think that half-game is going to come into play one way or another.
Pittsburgh: Under 10.5 - Very tough call here on the defending champs. They have a brutal schedule though.
San Diego: Under 9 - Internal organizational fighting and a rookie QB is enough for me.
San Francisco: Under 5 - Averaging just over four wins a year since start of 2003.
Seattle: Under 10.5 - I expect the Super Bowl hangover. They also have a tougher schedule this season.
St. Louis: Over 7 - Different faces, but same old unpredictable Rams.
Tampa Bay: Under 8 - This team is getting really, really old. Does it have one last run in it?
Washington: Over 9 - If Brunell of 2005 shows up, they should come out of a stacked NFC East. If Brunell of 2004 shows up, the wheels could come off very quickly.
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