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The Breeders' Cup is just around the corner. To get ready to take the money home this year we need to be sure that we are as prepared as we can be. One way to do that, at least before the fields are set and we can do some real handicapping, is to look back on recent history. By understanding what has happened in the recent past we can have a better idea of what works, what doesn't, and where we should be spending our efforts and directing our focus. Here are five recent trends that will help you make the best of your bankroll on thoroughbred racing's second biggest day:
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1. Look beyond the low priced horses. The favorites can win, but the public can also get it very wrong. Horses have raced on different surfaces in different countries against different competition, so handicapping properly can be a huge challenge. This is reflected by recent win prices. The average win price in 2006 was $24.60. The average winner in each of the last five years has paid at least 10/1. That doesn't mean that low priced horses can't win - Ouija Board was almost even money last year, and Dreaming of Anna was 5/2. It just means that you don't have to second-guess yourself if your handicapping directs you towards a higher priced horse. Four of the eight winners last year paid off at 14/1 or better, including eventual Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, who went off at more than 15/1.
2. Be careful of supplemented horses. In theory, a horse that has been supplemented to the BC should be well worth a look. Both stallions and foals have to be nominated to the Breeders' Cup. If that didn't happen then the owners of the horse have to pay either nine or 15 percent of the total purse (depending on the situation) in order for the horse to be able to run. You would think that the huge cost would only be paid when a horse is ready to run well, but that isn't always the case. 2004 provided an excellent example. That year, Ouija Board was supplemented to the Filly and Mare Turf, and she won it to prove the investment worthwhile. Eight other horses were supplemented that year, though, and none of them did anything. Moscow Burning was fourth behind Ouija Board, and she was the only one of the eight to even get a piece of the bottom of the superfecta. A supplemental fee by itself is not an indication of race readiness.
3. Don't look for value in the Juvenile Fillies. Of all the races, the Juvenile Fillies has proven to be the most predictable and therefore the least profitable. Dreaming of Anna only paid $7.20 to win last year, yet that was the highest price we had seen in five years. It's usually pretty clear who is at the head of the class heading into the race, and those top runners haven't faltered in recent years. The race has been a good confidence builder early in the card recently, but it has certainly not been a fast road to easy riches. If you are lacking a clear idea when post time draws near for the young ladies, just close your eyes and go with the public.
4. Like Exotics? You'll love the Sprint! The Sprint has seen some high-priced winners, as we saw with Thor's Echo at 16/1 last year. Though the win prices have fluctuated between high and low in recent years, the one constant has been that the superfecta in the race has been spectacular. Last year, Thor's Echo topped a superfecta that paid a whopping $113,911.80. The $35,358 it paid in 2005 was the lowest it has paid in the Sprint in five years, and it was still the biggest superfecta on the card that year. I'm obviously not advocating that you should box the field in the superfecta, but it would have paid off pretty well the last half-decade. Boxing a 14-horse field for a $2 superfecta costs $48,048, for a total cost of $240,240 over five years. The payoff off that period has been $301,256.30. That's a 25 percent ROI with no chancing of ending up with nothing. If only it were always that easy.
After you finish this horse betting article check out our horse racing gambling terms page. Doc's Kentucky Derby odds resource is a must read for horse wagering. Our Preakness stakes odds page is also a valuable tool for your horse betting research. Is there a horse betting or handicapping topic you would like to see covered? Email service@docsports with your recommendations.
5. Consider the Pick Three. For both casual and serious bettors the Pick Three has the ideal combination of being hard enough to win that the payoffs can be sizable, yet easy enough that a solid handicapper can win it once in a while. Over the last few years the Pick Three has been a great place to put your money on Breeders' Cup day. Last year, for example, the average Pick Three payout was almost $4,380, and two of the wagers paid out at over $9,000. Only one Pick Three, the first, paid poorly at $384, but even that wasn't entirely bad. The first and third races in the set had winners in Dreaming of Anna and Ouija Board that could very easily have been keyed, so the low ticket price would still allow for a good ROI despite the low payout.