Kentucky Derby Alumni at the Breeders' Cup
by Trevor Whenham - 10/04/2007
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For the first time in a long time, the horses that we got to know in May are going to be a serious factor in the Breeders' Cup Classic. The last couple of years we have seen horses run in both the spring classic and the fall one, but not as a legitimate threat. In 2005, Flower Alley and Sun King were the two that did double duty. Flower Alley was second to Saint Liam in the Classic, but at 10/1 to he was not among the elite contenders. Sun King was an also-ran at 30/1. 2006 also saw two dual-runners - Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron. Neither horse was a factor before or during the race. Brother Derek was fifth at 22/1, while Lawyer Ron, who had just moved to the Todd Pletcher stable, was ninth at 20/1.
Things are going to be different this year. As many as five starters from the 2007 Kentucky Derby are on course to start in the 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic. Top three finishers Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin are all being pointed to Monmouth Park, and they are likely to be joined by seventh place finisher Tiago and Any Given Saturday, who was eighth. Here's a look at those five horses as they get ready for their rematch:
Street Sense: Despite having a stellar record this year (four wins and three seconds in seven starts) the Derby champ is going to be the topic of much discussion heading into the race, and it will be difficult to come to a consensus. On the plus side, he followed his Derby win with victories in the Jim Dandy and Travers, so he's proven what he can do. On the downside, though, he has had two serious stretch duels -- with Curlin in the Preakness and Hard Spun in the Kentucky Cup Classic -- and he was beat both times. Both of those horses will be at Monmouth along with several other horses who won't let him get away alone in the stretch. In the Travers Street Sense eked out a victory in a tough stretch duel with Grasshopper. That horse went on to disappoint badly next time out.
If you buy into Beyer ratings then Street Sense has some concerns. He posted a 110 in the Derby and 111 in the Preakness, but he hasn't had a number that high since. Critics will say that the Kentucky Club Classic, in which he challenged Hard Spun down the stretch but never got the lead, shows that he hasn't developed as much as we would hope since the Derby and he is vulnerable. His many supporters would point out that the Kentucky Cup was on a synthetic surface, and jockey Calvin Borel never really worked for the win, so it was nothing more than a glorified workout. I'm not sure which side I'm on, but I have more than three weeks to figure it out.
Hard Spun: After a frustrating Triple Crown trail, Hard Spun came back in the Haskell. He finished second behind Any Given Saturday. Curlin was third. That was his last loss. He beat a fairly decent field in the King's Bishop at Saratoga, and then beat Street Sense last week in the aforementioned Kentucky Cup Classic. In a four-horse field it wasn't difficult for him to get the lead, and he was impressive in maintaining it. That's the good news. The bad news is that it's relatively easy to pick holes in his accomplishments. The King's Bishop was just over seven furlongs, and Street Sense may not have been at full effort in the Kentucky Cup. Beyond that Hard Spun has proven that he is very good, but he has yet to prove that he is good enough to beat the best of his class. His attractiveness will be hurt somewhat by the fact that his victory over Street Sense will cause his odds to be lower than they might otherwise have been.
Curlin: I'll say up front that I absolutely love this horse. I have also been continually confounded by what he will offer on any given day. At the Derby he just wasn't good enough. At the Preakness he looked good enough to beat anything on four feet. His Belmont loss to rags to Riches was an epic stretch duel against a great horse. He was disappointingly flat in the Haskell and I was ready to write him off. He faced probably the top older dirt horse in North America, Lawyer Ron, in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. I was certain he wouldn't catch the older horse in the stretch, but somehow he did, and probably earned favorite status in the Classic at the same time. If the Curlin we saw in the Preakness or the Gold Cup shows up at Monmouth then the world is in trouble. If he's flat then he'll still factor in the exotics, but not as the winner. The challenge is figuring out who might show up, and if the low price is worthwhile.
Tiago: After a seventh in the Derby and a third in the Belmont, the Santa Anita Derby winner went back home to California. He only hit the track there, but there was no one who could beat him. It's very hard to know what to do with this horse. None of the other West Coast three-year-old stars of the spring season are still active, so there is no good measuring stick for the horse's development. He won the Swaps Stakes, but it was against a very undistinguished field. The Goodwood would have been a great test of Tiago, but Lava Man was withdrawn in the days leading up. It was still a decent field, with horses like Awesome Gem and Lewis Michael, but it was far from a classic field. The race was over a synthetic track, too. Tiago is clearly improving, and he's the best the West Coast will likely have to offer, but he was a big step behind the best of the class in the spring, and the price would have to be very high to make it attractive to bet that he has closed that gap.
Any Given Saturday: One of the bigger disappointments of the Derby has turned into one of the biggest surprises of the summer. He hasn't lost since that day at Churchill. He's won three races, and he has the advantage of having beaten Hard Spun and Curlin in the Haskell over the same track was he will face in the Breeders' Cup. No horse in six tries has won both the Haskell and the Classic as a three-year-old, though Skip Away won the Haskell at three and the Classic at four. Any Given Saturday hasn't been over the classic 1 ¼-mile distance since the Derby, and he didn't handle it well then. It will be a challenge for him to step up to that distance again against a deep field. On the other hand, this horse is less glamorous then some of the other top horses, so the price may just be high enough to make it worth a gamble that he's matured into the distance.
