One quarter of the NFL season has been completed and after a Sunday full of shocking upsets the number of undefeated teams has been reduced dramatically.
Having 10 teams in mid-September that can all say they have not lost a game is not that out of the ordinary. But it is the teams that managed that feat that no one expected. It's not that having 10 teams without a loss in mid-September really looked that out of place; it was more a case of who was undefeated that seemed strange.
The Detroit Lions, at 3-1, are a team that not many expected to jump out of the gate to a hot start.
But after beating up on Chicago on Sunday, the "Cinderella" slipper is actually starting to fit. Could it be that team President Matt Millen has finally saved the team?
The folks at FireMillen.com might not be yet convinced.
The Lions will face a rested team in Washington on the road this week and there are a couple of trends in this game that favor the home squad. First of all, Washington was part of the initial group of bye teams this year and since the league was realigned these teams have earned a 12-6 SU/13-5 ATS record in the week following their bye. The subset of this profile also says to play the home favorite, which at 4-0 ATS looks like a solid investment for NFL betting.
Detroit gets their bye in Week 6 but then the Lions host to a surprisingly good Buccaneers team just before heading on the road for their rematch with the Bears. Do you think Chicago has revenge on their minds after getting pasted for 34 points in the fourth quarter?
The Broncos come to Detroit in Week 10. Many think that the Broncos are a bad team playing in domes. But consider this: Denver's loss at Indy on Sunday is just one of three away losses the Broncos have suffered to the Colts in the past four years. The Broncos record in dome-games played against any other team is 5-2 ATS since 1999.
Perhaps the Lions can win against the Cardinals or Giants, but the best time to gauge whether or not this team has a legitimate shot at a Wild Card will be when it's also time to decide between turkey, ham and that fascinating turducken creation that John Madden made famous.
The biggest shock of the season has to be the San Diego Chargers. Sure, everyone knew coming into the season that Norv Turner's all-time record as a head coach stunk, but wasn't a mix of mediocre opponents, a "Lights Out" defense and the best running back in the league supposed to cure all that?
In the past two decades, only four other teams that recorded at least 14 wins started off the next season so poorly. They were the 1987 Giants, 1999 Falcons, 1999 Broncos and the 2002 Rams. All four were 0-4 SU after the first month and all four finished the season with a losing record (24-39 SU combined). ATS records down the stretch were mixed for those teams as bookmakers and bettors didn't know what to expect, but Denver stood out with a 9-2-1 ATS mark in its final 12 games of 1999.
It just so happens that the Chargers are in Denver this weekend and the line is sitting at pick'em. It will be interesting to see which way the money goes on this one.
So the Lions are winning, the Chargers are losing, and Tom Coughlin is actually starting to look like he might know what he's doing. In a world gone mad, at least football fans can always look at Devin Hester to provide some relief. (Hester returned his eighth TD in his past 20 regular season games last weekend in a losing effort against the Lions)
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