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2008 College Basketball Article Archive
(Jan - Current)
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Return to Doc's 2008 Article Archive home page
Previous Archive 2007 College Basketball Archives
Below is a listing of articles appearing on Doc’s site sorted by date.
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College Basketball Scoring Threats and ATS Profitability
by T.O. Whenham - 03/05/2008
Back in January I took a look at how the number of scorers an NBA team had affected the ATS success of that team. There were some interesting conclusions to be drawn, but it all boiled down to the same basic conclusions - an NBA team was better off ATS when it had a more balanced scoring threat. Given that conclusion, it only seems logical to now look at college basketball to see what trends emerge.
Read more about College Basketball Scoring Threats.
Mid-Major Tourneys Prove As Exciting As Big Ones
by Strike Point Sports - 02/28/2008
March is upon us, and before the Big Dance comes the conference tournaments. Certainly most think of the Big East in Madison Square Garden, the Pac-10 in the Staples Center or even the ACC with a great shot at seeing a third showdown between North Carolina and Duke. But there is much more to this two-week stretch, and the mid-major conference tournaments hold a bit more under-the-radar luster, mainly because if the favorite goes down, any team can get hot and steal a bid during a three- or four-game stretch. Here are some of my thoughts on several of these tournaments:
Read more about Mid-Major Tournaments.
Bubble Watch: Florida and Ohio State
by Max Powers, Senior Handicapper - 02/27/2008
It was less then a year ago that these two teams were battling for the NCAA Championship in Atlanta. Florida dominated most of the game as their veteran leadership proved to be too much for the young upstart Buckeyes, led by two freshmen, Greg Oden and Mike Conley. The Gators won the game by nine points and thus completed back-to-back NCAA Championships for the first time since Duke did it in the early 90s. A team that reaches the championship can pretty much be assured a place in next year's NCAA Tournament field, but that is not the case with these two squads, as both sit clearly on the bubble. The following will examine their resumes and compare and contrast the likelihood that either could reach the Final Four yet again.
Read more about Bubble Watch.
Tennessee Vols Earning Potential No. 1 Seed
by T.O. Whenham - 02/27/2008
Tennessee had the perfect situation on Saturday night - a nationally televised game against a hated in-state rival with the No. 1 ranking in the country on the line. They took advantage of it as well as they possibly could have. Memphis, the home team, and undefeated No. 1 team to boot, was favored by six points or more, but Tennessee was able to keep it close in the first half and pull away late as the Tigers went ice cold with their shooting. With the win, the Volunteers became, like Memphis before them, the unanimous top team in the country. There is little question that they deserve that position. The question is how well that ranking sets them up down the stretch of the season, into the SEC tournament, and, by far most importantly, into the NCAA Tournament.
Read more about Tennessee Vols.
Bracket Buster Handicapping
by Robert Ferringo - 02/22/2008
Thursday was an off day from selections, but there's no rest for the weary. I spent most of my day analyzing the Bracket Buster matchups on Saturday's card and I have several juicy situations circled. But before we get to this year's hyper-inflated version of the annual mid-major hoops orgy, we should take a look backwards to see if we can glean any useful information from past Bracket Buster weekends.
Read more about Bracket Buster Handicapping.
Best Sports Book to Watch March Madness
by T.O. Whenham - 02/22/2008
March Madness is the best time of the year, and a sports book in Las Vegas is the best place (outside of a host arena) to watch it. On tournament days the books fill up early, and they are absolutely buzzing with passion, tension, and raw excitement. Just think of everything that the tournament makes you feel and then multiply it by the hundreds of people who are there and you have the ingredients for a perfect day. I don't get to Vegas as often as I wish I did, but when I do I definitely have some favorite sports books that I have to visit. This, in no particular order, is my list of the best sports books to watch March Madness, or anything else for that matter:
Read more about Best Sports Book to Watch March Madness.
Purdue Surprising Atop the Big Ten
by T.O. Whenham - 02/19/2008
It's been a season of surprises in college basketball - the unlikely success of Drake, the toughness of Duke, the depth of the Pac-10, the emergence of St. Mary's. There isn't a story as impressive or surprising, though, as what Purdue has done. They came into the season with few expectations because of their incredibly young lineup - starting three freshmen and two sophomores. They didn't elevate those expectations with December losses to Wofford and Iowa State, two games in which the Boilermakers were heavily favored.
Read more about Purdue Basketball.
Down Year for MVC
by Max Powers - 02/19/2008
For the past couple of seasons the Missouri Valley Conference has been the media darling of the NCAA Tournament. They have become a major player in the college basketball landscape despite being a basketball only mid-major conference. Through creative scheduling MVC teams amass high RPI numbers that the selection committee can't help but notice and therefore they have received multiple at-large bids similar to those of major conferences. With their recent success it appeared that they would be in for another strong conference this year, but things have blown up and traditional powers have fallen flat on their face.
Read more about MVC.
How to Cap Struggling Teams Down the Stretch
by T.O. Whenham - 02/14/2008
For college basketball teams that are playing well this is an incredibly exciting time of year. The conference season is drawing to a close, so every single game couldn't possibly be more important. Teams at the top of their conferences are playing to improve their seeding in the NCAA Tournament, while those one step behind the elite are trying to get themselves a ticket to the dance. Passion and intensity are what make college basketball so great, and they both jump up a notch or two as we get into February. There are a lot of teams that don't enjoy this time of year very much, though.
Read more about College Basketball Teams Down the Stretch.
Worst 10 Major Conference Schools ATS
by Jason Owens - 02/11/2008
Some of these teams are riding the laurels of past performances. Some of them have suffered injuries or failed to live up to preseason hype. Some of them are just plain bad. Regardless of the reason, the following 10 teams have proven to be consistent losers against the spread and should be avoided. From the bottom up, here are the 10 major conference teams with the worst ATS records.
Read more about Worst 10 ATS.
Money Line Parlays in College Basketball
by Robert Ferringo - 02/08/2008
Conventional wisdom says that parlays and teasers are for suckers. However, conventional wisdom also used to be that a woman would never be president, that cigarettes are actually good for you, and that that melancholy could be cured by draining black bile out of one's head. Needless to say, conventional wisdom is not canon.
Read more about Money Line Parlays.
How Big is Home Court Advantage in College Hoops?
by T.O. Whenham - 02/08/2008
A couple of weeks ago I took a look at the home court advantage in the NBA, so it only makes sense that we do the same for college basketball. Unfortunately, this is a much more difficult task. There are so many teams and so many factors involved that analyzing the college home court advantage is an imprecise science at best.
Read more about College Basketball Home Court Advantage.
Ranked Teams On ATS Slide
by T.O. Whenham - 02/08/2008
Spending just a little bit of time analyzing stats and crunching numbers can sometimes turn up some valuable handicapping insights. More often, though, it can give you a dangerously incomplete picture that could lead you to lose some money if you followed through on it. For an example we need to look no further than an interesting situation that has cropped up regarding ranked teams in college basketball.
Read more about Ranked Teams On ATS Slide.
Tennessee to be Major Hurdle For Memphis
by T.O. Whenham - 02/08/2008
Can Memphis go undefeated? Absolutely. They only have nine games to go, including four against teams that they have already beaten, and they have wins over some pretty decent teams already. Will Memphis go undefeated? Well, that's an entirely different story. (Whether they should strive to go into the tournament undefeated is a different question entirely, and we will leave that for another time) Let's take a look:
Read more about Memphis Basketball.
Tar Heels Backers Have the Blues Lately
by T.O. Whenham - 02/08/2008
There's something rotten in the state of North Carolina. (Bonus points if you caught the Shakespeare reference.) Now, there's no need to panic - they are still 21-2, and at 15-5 ATS they are right near the top of the heap for betting success. It's just that the team that looked like they were virtually unstoppable at the beginning of the season suddenly looks mortal. They have lost twice in their last five games, and both times it was at home. They are just 3-3 ATS in their last six, and they needed overtime against Florida State to put away an opponent that had no business being even remotely close.
Read more about UNC Basketball.
Penn State Basketball: The Rise and Fall
by Max Powers, Senior Handicapper - 02/07/2008
The Penn State Nittany Lions have had a remarkable season that started off well and now they have fallen back to Earth a bit and are well on their way to a double-digit seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Doc's College Basketball selection service has been along for an amazing ride with this team, often using them as a selection for or against. The following will examine the highs and lows of the Penn State basketball season.
Read more about Penn State Basketball.
Drake no Fake - One of Most Profitable Teams in Nation
by T.O. Whenham - 02/07/2008
There have been some great stories and some big surprises in the college basketball season so far, but no story is better or more surprising than the success of Drake. They moved to 21-1 with their 20th consecutive victory on Tuesday night, and at 15-3 ATS they have been the most reliably profitable team in the country. I don't know any of your friends, but if you have any friends who say that they could have seen that coming then be careful, because they are huge liars. For much of the year this anonymous team from the Missouri Valley Conference has been flying under the radar, but they are starting to be noticed because they are becoming increasingly hard to ignore. If you don't know much about this team, you should. Here's the story in a nutshell to get you up to speed.
Read more about Drake Basketball.
Duke-UNC Betting Preview
by Robert Ferringo - 02/05/2008
Outside skill or inside will? Royal blue or baby blue? Home favorite with an individual vendetta or higher-ranked road underdog looking for team revenge? Lots of questions about the regional and national college basketball landscape are going to be answered on Wednesday night when Duke wanders down Tobacco Road to tussle with No. 3 North Carolina in the biggest rivalry game in college basketball.
Read more about Duke-UNC Preview.
Any Parallels Between College Stats and ATS Record?
by T.O. Whenham - 01/19/2008
Last week I looked at how some different offensive and defensive statistics in the NBA related to against the spread success for teams. The results were very interesting, and not always what was expected. For example, scoring a lot of points or winning the rebounding battle might seem like sure ways to success at the NBA betting window, but the truth is that the teams that score a lot of points and rebound well aren't necessarily the profitable ones at all. On the other hand, teams that play stingy defense appear to be a great bet, and teams with high field goal percentages are often worth a look, too.
Read more about College Stats/ATS.
Mountain West Conference - Top 4 Teams Critiqued
by T.O. Whenham - 01/18/2008
You probably didn't notice unless you were playing pretty close attention last year, but the Mountain West Conference played some pretty solid basketball. Leading the way were the Running Rebels of UNLV who returned to part of their past glory as they won two games in the tournament. BYU joined them in the dance, and covered and nearly won against a tough Xavier team that almost beat Ohio State. Air Force missed the NCAA Tournament due to a late season collapse, but made up for it by making a run to the semifinals of the NIT. San Diego State was good enough to make the NIT and win a game as well. That's not bad for a conference that gets little attention and even less respect.
Read more about Mountain West Conference Betting.
Five College Basketball Teams to Bet On
by T.O. Whenham - 01/17/2008
When it comes to teams with unimpressive records there are two basic types - those that are better than their record would indicate, and those that really aren't. Both can be interesting from a college basketball betting perspective - the bad teams can be good to bet against, and the teams that are better than they appear can present real betting value if you catch them before they start winning and the public figures out that they are better than they appear. Here are five teams that fit into the latter category - teams that are better than they seem and stand a good chance of proving it during conference play:
Read more about Value College Hoops Teams.
Kentucky Could Hold Value
by T.O Whenham - 01/09/2008
Kentucky basketball fans are known for many things, but patience and understanding are not two of them. It goes without saying, then, that the pathetic start by the Wildcats this year is not sitting well with their fans and backers. Things weren't supposed to go this way in Lexington. Tubby Smith had been blamed for all the recent woes, but he had been banished to a basketball wasteland, and the savior had arrived in the form of Billy Gillispie. All was supposed to be right with the world. Instead, the team is at 6-7, and a pitiful 2-7-1 ATS.
Read more about Betting Value on Kentucky.
College Basketball Handicapping: Conference Play
by T.O. Whenham - 01/09/2008
One of the big challenges of college basketball handicapping is that things are constantly changing. In the NFL, for example, every game during the regular season is a regular season game, and can be looked at in much the same way. In college basketball, though, the season goes through many distinct phases, and each must be handled differently: preseason games give way to early season tournaments, followed by non-conference action, then conference play, followed by the conference tournament and then whatever postseason action the team may qualify for.
Read more about College Basketball Handicapping.
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