Brett Favre Effect
by Matt Foust - 08/23/2008
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The Brett Favre saga related to his "un-retirement" seemed as though it would never end. Everyday, all day was a Favreapalooza. Well, now that he has finally left Green Bay, now that the party is over, let's talk about him some more. We all know in our hearts we don't want it to end, we want Favre to play until he's 85 years old just so we can talk about him. Seriously though, now that the dust has settled, what does this move mean for the teams involved; what does it mean for the AFC East and what does it mean for Favre?
If the oddsmakers know what they are doing (and they usually do), then the Favre trade means quite a bit to the Jets and Packers. In July, online bookmaker SBGGlobal had the Jets at +7500 odds to win the Super Bowl and +4000 odds to win the AFC Championship. After the Favre trade, SBGGlobal shifted their lines dramatically. The Jets now sit at +3000 odds to win the Super Bowl and +1200 odds to win the AFC title game. New York's win total, however, has remained at seven as has their odds to win the AFC East (+800).
The Jets are not the only team to see their odds move. The Packers, who were plowing ahead with Aaron Rodgers regardless, actually saw their odds become more favorable after the Favre deal. As of early last month, Bodog had Green Bay at 8/1 odds to win the NFC Championship and 25/1 odds to win the Super Bowl. Now the bookmaker has them at 11/1 odds to win the NFC and 35/1 odds to win Super Bowl XLIII. Like the Jets, Green Bay saw little movement in their odds to win their division or in their season win total odds (it remained at eight).
Just a couple of months ago pundits were debating who would take second place in the AFC East (first and last place appear to be etched in stone). Based upon last season's performance the Bills were probably the favorite to edge the Jets. The Favre acquisition has changed all of that thinking. The Bills sit at +3500 odds to win the Super Bowl and +1900 odds to win the AFC, both relatively close to what they were last month. The Jets have now flown right by them as the favorite to finish behind the Patriots.
All of this odds shifting would indicate that most people believe the Jets will see the same Brett Favre that finished runner up in 2007 MVP voting. Favre seemed to have a career renaissance last season after back-to-back dismal years in 2005 and 2006. The Packers improvement as a whole probably gave him the incentive he needed to put his best foot forward and it showed in the decreased number of careless passes. Favre threw just 15 interceptions in 2007; he had averaged 23.5 in the previous two seasons. If the Jets get out of the blocks strong, look for Favre to be every bit of what he was in Green Bay last year and look for the Jets to improve upon last year's win total by at least three or four games.
