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2008 NBA Basketball Article Archive
(Jan - Current)
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Return to Doc's 2008 Article Archive home page
Previous Archive 2007 NBA Basketball Archives
Below is a listing of articles appearing on Doc’s site sorted by date.
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How Important are Free Throws in the NBA Playoffs?
by T.O. Whenham - 05/07/2008
We hear time and time again that the ability to hit free throws is crucial in post-season basketball. Futility from the line was why Memphis was supposed to be unable to beat Texas or UCLA, and it contributed to their loss to Kansas. The same common wisdom is held in the NBA - teams can't win if they can't score the free points. As a sports bettor I am naturally skeptical, and I don't like to trust common wisdom without verifying it first. With that in mind, then, here's a look at how well free throws have converted into wins in the playoffs this year.
Read more about Free Throws in the NBA Playoffs.
Will U.S. Win Gold in China? Don't Bet On It
by T.O. Whenham - 05/01/2008
It seems hard to believe, but the Olympics are just over three months away. For the most part I don't get too excited by two weeks of water polo, kayaking, and pole vault, and I am dreading all of the protesting and turmoil we will see from Beijing. I'm all in favor of anything I can bet on, though, so men's basketball has captured my imagination. The schedule isn't set yet because the last of the teams have yet to qualify. That means that we can start to look at the first props available on the tournament with at least a reasonable amount of logic.
Read more about US Olympics Basketball Team.
Why the Celtics are Favored To Win It All
by T.O. Whenham - 04/24/2008
There seems to be a strong and growing sentiment that the Boston Celtics are going to cruise through the Eastern Conference and make the finals. That sentiment certainly gained steam when Boston dealt with Atlanta easily in their first playoff game, while Detroit, Boston's biggest impediment along the way to the Eastern championship, blew a 15-point second quarter lead and lost to Philadelphia (order was restored in the second game when Detroit dominated. The odds also suggest this sentiment to be strong - Boston is at 3/2 to win the NBA championship.
Read more about Celtics Favored.
Western Conference Series Odds and Predictions
by Vegas Sports Informer - 04/18/2008
The first round of the NBA Playoffs start on Saturday and the series prices are now available to bet against. The odds are pretty tight throughout the NBA playoff bracket out West. The first round of the Western Conference will be exciting and should have at least one or two upsets, so pop some corn and get tons of beer because I wouldn't be surprised to see all four matchups to go seven games. No matter what, the NBA Playoffs are here and we are ready to make some cash on these series.
Read more about Western Conference Series Odds.
Eastern Conference Series Odds and Predictions
by Vegas Sports Informer - 04/18/2008
The first round of the Eastern Conference NBA playoffs start Saturday and the series prices are up and we do have some shocking numbers. In the East, besides one matchup (Washington versus Cleveland), there are some lopsided lines. Everybody knows the Boston Celtics or Detroit Pistons will be in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Orlando Magic could be the sleeper in the Eastern Conference and I wouldn't be surprised to see them advance to the second round. No matter what, the NBA Playoffs are here and we are ready to make some cash.
Read more about Eastern Conference Series Odds.
2008 NBA Playoffs Preview
by T.O. Whenham - 04/17/2008
The NBA playoffs are here, and it is time to look at the series one-by-one. As I take a look at what is in store, I break them into four different groups - the locks, the potential upsets, the deserved favorites, and the wide-open contests. Here's a look at how I split the different series up (all odds are from Bodog):
Read more about 2008 NBA Playoffs Preview.
Betting on the NBA MVP
by T.O. Whenham - 04/16/2008
The NBA season ends today, so it is time to make the final predictions for the MVP race. Unfortunately, it isn't turning out to be much of a race. It's not that there aren't a lot of deserving players who have had good years. It's just that the powers that be seem to be entirely focused on two players, and one of them seems to have a clear edge. That doesn't mean that the situation has been entirely robbed of betting potential, though.
Read more about Betting on the NBA MVP.
2008 NBA Mock Draft
by T.O. Whenham - 04/15/2008
The NBA Draft will take place on June 26 in New York. The Lottery won't take place until May 20, but that doesn't mean that we can't start looking at how things may play out now. There are a few things to note with this NBA mock draft. Since the lottery hasn't happened, the teams are listed in order of their standings (worst to first), so the draft order will be different. As a result, I have concentrated on picking the best player in each spot, not necessarily the best fit for the team that is picking. Also, I have included underclassmen who haven't yet declared for the draft if it seems likely that they eventually will. With all that said, here's my first shot at predicting this year's draft:
Read more about NBA Mock Draft.
Celtics Should Be In Great Shape for Playoffs
by T.O. Whenham - 04/09/2008
The Boston Celtics clinched the top spot in the East heading into the playoffs last week. Given their recent play, and their play all season for that matter, it was inevitable far before that. They have won eight out of every 10 games they have played, and they have fared about as well against top teams as they have against the weaklings in the league. Given that they have their position sewn up, and that their opponent is likely set as the Hawks, and given that there isn't much else to think about regarding this team at this point, one has to wonder whether this long, anticlimactic wait for the playoffs will adversely affect their focus and preparation. There will be three weeks between the official clinching of first place and the start of the playoffs, so a team that was inclined to could become lethargic and undisciplined in that time. Will the Celtics?
Read more about Boston Celtics.
NBA Handicapping - Bouncing Back from Blowouts
by T.O. Whenham - 03/13/2008
I must not like myself very much because I keep finding new ways to make myself go blind staring at stats. My latest area of interest was to look back to see how NBA teams have been doing this year when they try to bounce back from a blowout loss. I was curious because I regularly come across people with two different approaches. Some people say that a team bouncing back from a loss is worth a bet because they will be hungry to erase the embarrassment and because the public will be down on the team, which will create value in the lines. Others argue that the teams are not a good bet because a blowout is a sign of problems that can't be erased in just one game. Both obviously can't be true, and the only way to find out which is closer to accurate this year is by testing.
Read more about Bouncing Back.
NBA Teams That Have Given Up
by T.O. Whenham - 03/13/2008
Miami Heat, New York Knicks, Milwaukee Bucks, L.A. Clippers, Seattle Sonics, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves. What do those seven NBA teams have in common? A few things. All of them are truly terrible. The season is lost for all of them. And they are all playing like they know it. This pathetic band of losers has amassed a pitiful 14-56 combined record over their last 10 games. Their 24-46 ATS mark over that time is slightly better but still sad and costly for bettors. It gets worse - five of the games the teams covered were against other teams on this list, so the record against other teams drops to 19-41 ATS. Ouch.
Read more about NBA Teams that have Given Up.
Handicapping Houston without Yao
by T.O. Whenham - 03/06/2008
The instant panic that arose when Yao Ming went down with an injury was so strong and fearful that I could smell it three thousand miles away from Houston. The Rockets were incredibly hot and increasingly legitimate, but the loss of their star center would seem to be an instant downer. It got worse when word came out that the injury was a stress fracture in his foot, that Yao had opted for surgery, and that the season was over for him.
Read more about Houston without Yao.
Handicapping Long NBA Road Trips
by T.O. Whenham - 02/29/2008
Road trips, and particularly long ones, can be a handicapping challenge in the NBA. It can be very difficult to know how a team is going to respond on a long trip. If things go well, teams can really gel and put together an impressive run. If a trip starts off poorly, though, it can end up as a disaster. Handicapping teams on road trips is one of the many cases where a sports bettor needs to be part psychologist to make a guess on how teams are thinking.
Read more about Long NBA Road Trips.
NBA Handicapping: Back-to-Back Games
by T.O. Whenham - 02/28/2008
Teams play games on back-to-back days occasionally in the NHL, but it isn't nearly as common as it is in the NBA. Basketball teams play on consecutive nights very frequently. In fact, teams have played two nights in a row a total of 404 times as I write this, and every team has played on consecutive nights at least 11 times. Given that this situation comes up so often during the course of the season, it seems like it is worth a bit of study.
Read more about NBA Back-to-Back.
2008 NBA Trade Deadline: Gambling Perspective
by Vegas Sports Informer - 02/19/2008
Thursday is the NBA trade deadline and so far we've had some huge NBA blockbuster trades. But for some odd reason I do believe we could see two or three more trades that could affect playoff seeding and gambling trends. Let's face it, I'm looking at all of these trades, NBA rumors, and shop talk and I'm wondering how will this affect my NBA betting and handicapping.
Read more about NBA Trade Deadline.
NBA Championship Odds for Futures Betting
by T.O. Whenham - 02/15/2008
As we head into the NBA All-Star break it is a good time to look at ahead at the playoffs. A lot will change between now and then, but we can look at the NBA Championship odds that are being offered at different books to see if any offer value based on what we have seen so far. Here's a look at the NBA Championship odds for every team with a brief look at the value (all odds are from Bodog):
Read more about NBA Championship Odds.
How Shaq Improves Suns
by T.O. Whenham - 02/14/2008
Stop me if you have heard this recently - we need to examine the impact of trade in the NBA that brings a superstar from a terrible Eastern Conference team to an elite team in the West. Last week this article was about Pau Gasol and the Lakers. This week I will look at Shaquille O'Neal and the Phoenix Suns. Who will it be next week?
Read more about Shaq and the Suns.
NBA Teams To Watch After All-Star Break
by T.O. Whenham - 02/12/2008
As we head into the All-Star break in the NBA it feels like we have a pretty good handle on which teams are competitive and which ones are just playing out the string. Every year, though, we see teams that quietly improve their performance against the spread after the break. They usually aren't great teams in the first half of the season, and they likely won't be particularly relevant by the time the season ends, but they have the elements that make them a much more profitable, and therefore enjoyable, bet later in the season than they were at the start. This can be caused by players returning by injury, young players coming into their own, a change in coaching or personnel, or a system finally taking hold and making sense.
Read more about NBA Teams To Watch.
How Will Pau Gasol Trade Affect Lakers Lines?
by T.O. Whenham - 02/06/2008
The Pau Gasol era started on Tuesday night for the Lakers, and the rest of the teams in the West must be terrified. Kobe Bryant had as bad a game as he has had in months - just six points, and he suffered a banged up finger to boot. In past days that would have been disastrous for the Lakers. Now, though, it wasn't seen as that big of a deal. Gasol stepped up with 24 points and 12 rebounds, and the Lakers rolled to an easy 15-point victory. Gasol seemed to have no problems fitting in, and, though it's probably a coincidence, Derek Fisher had his best scoring night of the year. The Lakers should be fine until Andrew Bynum returns to action, and they have a chance to be special when he comes back.
Read more about Pau Gasol Trade.
Flu Bug Overrated in NBA Handicapping
by T.O. Whenham - 02/05/2008
Having the flu isn't a lot of fun. You probably know that from first hand experience. So do a surprising number of NBA players. Over the last couple of weeks the list of players who have missed time thanks to the flu is long and reasonably distinguished. Just take a look - Dwyane Wade didn't travel to play Orlando, Tracy McGrady didn't play Golden State, Yao Ming couldn't play Utah, Ray Allen missed a game against Miami, Corey Maggette has missed four in a row so far. That's not an all-star roster, but it could be.
Read more about Flu in the NBA.
Are Balanced NBA Teams Better ATS?
by T.O. Whenham - 01/24/2008
When it comes to the NBA, the thing I am fascinated by more than anything else is how teams score points. I am always interested to see if a team relies on a single player to drive the offense (Cleveland, Miami, Lakers), whether it is shared between two stars (Detroit, Denver, Houston), or if scoring is done by committee (Boston, Orlando, San Antonio). There isn't one particular approach that is correct, but each one creates a very different style of team, and each therefore requires a different approach to handicapping.
Read more about Balanced NBA Teams.
Chicago Bulls = Betting Disaster
by T.O. Whenham - 01/18/2008
The Bulls are truly a disaster. There is really no way to be nicer about this mess of a team than that. It wasn't supposed to go this way. They had improved significantly each of the last two years, they have a young and impressive roster with solid veterans at the core, they had a solid draft and a coach who was fiery and controversial but talented, and a had a boatload of buzz coming into the season - they had the world on a string. It hasn't worked out quite like it was supposed to. Their record is in the tank, the roster is under-performing from top to bottom, the top draft pick is the lead actor in a ridiculous soap opera, the coach is long gone, and the team is a punch line.
Read more about Chicago Bulls Betting.
What NBA Teams Need for Road Success
by T.O. Whenham - 01/17/2008
As we have talked about before, the NBA home court advantage is one of the strongest of any sport. All things being equal, the home team wins more than its share of games. The public is generally aware of this trend, and they love few things more than betting on the home team. That means that there is real value in finding and betting on teams that excel away from the friendly confines of home.
Read more about Best NBA Road Teams.
NBA: 5 Worst Teams in the League
by Vegas Sports Informer - 01/16/2008
So far this NBA season has been about the Boston Celtics, the surprising Portland Blazers, and Kobe Bryant; who is surprisingly still a Laker and has received some help from his supporting cast to impress in the West. However, on the other end of the spectrum, this season has had some HUGE basketball betting disappointments and these teams have actually made me some good hard cold cash. Not only are these teams horrible on the road but they are just as bad at home. These bottom five teams are going to have a long season and I don't see anything making these teams any better. At least the 2008 NBA Draft could be a good one because these teams need a lot of help.
Read more about Five Worst NBA Teams.
NBA Betting: Correlation Between Stats and ATS Records
by T.O. Whenham - 01/11/2008
When we are handicapping the NBA we spend a lot of time looking at, and talking about, offensive and defensive statistics, and we spend all of our time obsessing about how teams perform against the spread. Now that we are over a third of the way into the NBA season, I figured that it would be interesting and perhaps valuable to see how one thing is relating to the other. With that in mind, then, here's a look at how teams that are performing well in different statistical categories are doing ATS. It's just a hunch until I do the work, but I guess that some statistical categories will correlate very strongly, while others will hardly relate to betting success at all. Let's see if I'm right:
Read more about NBA Stats/ATS.
NBA Home Court Advantage
by T.O. Whenham - 01/11/2008
Two days after the lowly Charlotte Bobcats went into Boston and handily beat the Celtics probably isn't the best time to talk about the home court advantage in the NBA, but let's do it anyway. The perception among many sports bettors is that the NBA has a particularly strong home court advantage. Statistically, the numbers show that they aren't entirely wrong. The home teams won 60.4 percent of the games played in 2005-2006, and 59.1 percent last season. Twenty eight of the 30 teams in the league last year had a better record at home than on the road, and Boston had the same bad record home and away.
Read more about NBA Home Court Advantage.
Tips for Betting on Basketball
by Jason Shimberg - 01/09/2008
Basketball betting can be exhilarating and lucrative if you follow some fundamental strategies. In hoops, point spreads are used to handicap the favorite and underdog for each game. The over and under for total points scored by both teams is a very popular gamble. Here are some tips for betting on basketball from the experts.
Read more about Tips for Betting on Basketball.
Portland Getting It Done on Court, at Window
by T.O Whenham - 01/04/2008
If you had somehow been able to predict that the Portland Trail Blazers would get as hot as they have before the season started you would be a very rich person today. Not just because they have gone a ridiculous 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games, but also because people would have thought you were an idiot and would have lined up to bet you that you were wrong. The Blazers are the youngest team in the league, and they suffered what should have been a crippling blow before the season even started when Greg Oden was knocked out for the year, yet somehow they are sitting in a playoff spot, and they seem to be virtually unbeatable.
Read more about Portland Trail Blazers.
Five NBA Disappointments
by T.O. Whenham - 01/04/2008
We are about 40 percent of the way into the NBA season. That's not long enough to know which team is going to be standing when the dust settles in the playoffs, but it is more than long enough to know which teams have been disgustingly disappointing. I have kept my frustration to myself up to this point, but that ends here. There are five teams that have been incredibly disappointing and frustrating compared to the expectations I had for them coming into the season. Read 'em and weep:
Read more about Five NBA Disappointments.
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