UFC 85 Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 06/03/2008
The Ultimate Fighting Championships return to England for UFC 85. The card isn't as glamorous or filled with big names as recent cards, but fans of the sport will nonetheless find more than enough to keep themselves entertained, and hopefully make a few bucks as well. The dramatically creative folks at UFC are calling this card Bedlam. Here's a look at the bedlam that might ensue on the main card and some UFC 85 predictions (odds are from Bodog):
Matt Hughes (-185) vs. Thiago Alves (+145) - This welterweight fight is the main event. Hughes (42-6) is a legend. He's a two-time champion, and one of the best wrestlers MMA has ever seen. Like all of us, though, he is getting older. He would love another title shot after losing to Georges St. Pierre in December, and he would probably eventually get it with a convincing win here. He's hinted that he's nearer to the end of his career than the beginning, though, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him pack it in if he doesn't win this fight. A win is certainly possible, but no sure thing against Alves (14-3). Alves hasn't lost in five-straight, and has four straight stoppages. This is a step up in class for him, but he could take the next step to a title fight with a win. The fight will be a study in contrasts. Alves will look to stay on his feet and score a knock out with his muay thai skills. Hughes excels on the ground, and will have a clear edge if he can get Alves into his domain. Hughes will have to be on guard, but he is deservedly favored here, and I wouldn't be surprised if he is even more heavily favored by the time the opening bell sounds.
Pick: Hughes
Michael Bisping (-340) vs. Jason Day (+260) - The oddsmakers see this middleweight fight as one-sided, and they are probably right. Bisping (15-1) dominated Charles McCarthy at UFC 83 en route to a first round TKO, and the brawler is likely to do the same here against Day (17-5). These guys both like to slug it out, and neither puts their fights in the hands of the judges very often, so this should be a war. Bisping has two significant edges - he's far more versatile, especially on the ground, and he is hungry for a winner here to move closer to a title shot he clearly deserves. That should be enough to put him over the top.
Pick: Bisping
Marcus Davis (-115) vs. Mike Swick (-115) - Unlike the first two matches, the fighters in this welterweight bout are clearly evenly matched. Davis (14-3) is on the older side of the sport at 34 (same as Hughes), but he is as hot as a fighter can be, having strung together 11-straight wins. He's a former boxer who relied on those skills early in his MMA career, but has become a much better grappler recently. Swick (11-2) is a kickboxer who prefers to stay on his feet. He had an off fight in his last outing and needed a decision for a win, but he is far more likely to send an opponent to dreamland. Both of these Ultimate Fighter alums like the knockout, and both will be looking to score one early, so this could be the most entertaining fight on the card for as long as it lasts. As the price indicates, this one truly could go either way. Both of these guys are on their way up and want to get into the title picture.
Pick: Davis
Brandon Vera (-170) vs. Fabricio Werdum (+130) - This is a heavyweight fight with high stakes - the winner will likely be next in line for a title shot. It's also a serious clash in styles. Werdum (10-3-1) is one of the best grapplers there is. He beat Gabriel Gonzaga last time out. Vera (8-1) lost a decision to Tim Sylvia in his last match, but had previously won seven of his eight matches by stoppage. He's a wrestler, but he's best when on his feet. Vera will look to exploit his striking edge, while Werdum will look to get it on the ground. Werdum has never been knocked out, and Vera has never submitted, but you have to believe one of those things is going to change here. Vera is getting a lot of support, but Werdum is certainly a live longshot.
Pick: Werdum
Nate Marquardt (-165) vs. Thales Leites (+135) - We've been waiting for this fight for a long time, but injuries and other problems have caused delays. It should be worth the wait. Marquardt (26-7-2) is riding high after impressively choking out Jeremy Horn back in February. Like everyone else on this card he is looking to get a title shot. He has only one loss since 2003, and that came in a title fight against current middleweight champ Anderson Silva. He wants revenge, but to get it he needs to get past the fast-rising Leites (12-1) first. Leites has won his last three fights, but has been out of action since August thanks to a broken hand that caused this fight to be delayed. He is a submission master, with eight of his 12 wins coming via an armbar. He'll be rusty and he is taking a pretty sizable leap up in competition here, but we haven't seen anything from him that would lead us to doubt his ability to contend. He's another live longshot.
Pick: Marquardt