UFC 93 Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 01/16/2009
UFC 94, featuring the battle between Georges St. Pierre and B.J. Penn, may be the one that everyone is looking forward to. Before that comes along, though, there is UFC 93. It takes place in Dublin as part of UFC's ongoing efforts to establish itself across the ocean. This card isn't nearly as intriguing as the next one, but it still has some highlights. More importantly, it still provides opportunities to bet. Lots of them in this case. Here's a look at Doc's Sports UFC 93 predictions. All odds are from Bodog.
Dan Henderson (-125) vs. Rich Franklin (-105) - Rich Franklin is the real deal. He only has two losses in his last 14 matches, and both came against Anderson Silva. There is no shame in that. He's athletic, very powerful, and ridiculously fit. He's in tough here, though. Dan Henderson is very good as well, especially when his matches devolve into a wrestling match. He has two losses in his last five, but they came against Rampage Jackson and Silva, so he hasn't been slumming, either. I wish that Henderson were more aggressive in the pursuit of the submission, but he's close to impossible to submit.
Franklin probably has an edge when the fighters are on their feet. Henderson gains an advantage on the ground. I don't see this match ending early, so it will come down to points. Franklin can score in more ways, so that gives him a slight edge.
Pick: Rich Franklin.
Mark Coleman (+300) vs. Mauricio 'Shogun' Rua (-450) - Coleman is outclassed here. His only chance is to ground and pound. He is very good at taking guys down, and making the pay once they get there. Rua has struggled with injuries, but he has a significant edge when the fighters are standing up, and he can hold his own when they are not. Coleman will lose an edge here as well because he is moving down in weight, and size has been his advantage. I would love to pick Coleman at this price, but I just can't justify it.
Pick: Mauricio Rua.
Denis Kang (-295) vs. Alan Belcher (+235) - If Belcher can keep this fight standing up then he could win. He won't be able to, though. Kang is strong enough to hold his own on the feet, and he's got a huge advantage on the ground. I hate to take the chalk, but I have no choice.
Pick: Denis Kang.
Jeremy Horn (+325) vs. Rousimar Palhares (-450) - Horn is struggling. Palhares really isn't. Palhares has a massive edge on the ground, and he is hungry for wins to prove himself and get his shot at the big fights. Another chalky choice, unfortunately.
Pick: Rousimar Palhares.
Marcus Davis (-150) vs. Chris Lytle (+120) - Davis will beat Lytle senseless if the fighters stay on their feet. Lytle knows this. My guess is that he is smart enough and good enough to take the fight down. He's by far the stronger fighter on the ground.
Pick: Chris Lytle.
Eric Schafer (-125) vs. Antonio Mendes (-105) - Schafer is a fighter on the rise. I think he has a reasonably bright future. Mendes is powerful and competent, but Schafer is much stronger on the ground. Schafer is obviously the favorite, but I don't think that these odds reflect his full advantage. That means that there is value.
Pick: Eric Schafer.
Tomasz Drwal (-290) vs. Ivan Serati (+230) - This is a very tough fight to call. Serati has some good buzz surrounding him, but he is making his UFC debut, so we can't really tell what he has to offer. Drwal has been around a bit longer, and he has shown that he has some chops. I'm not sure that he is a good enough fighter to justify these kind of odds against almost anyone, so I am willing to gamble here. Serati has had some good fights outside of the UFC, and is worth a shot.
Pick: Ivan Serati.
John Hathaway (-290) vs. Tom Egan (+230) - This is a tough call because we don't know much about either of them. Hathaway is more experienced, but neither fighter has lost at this point. It comes down to the better value gamble. Egan is raw, but he seems worth a shot at this price.
Pick: Tom Egan.
Dennis Siver (-165) vs. Nate Mohr (+135) - I like both fighters as much as you can like moderately talented undercard fighters, but I think that Siver has more talent - enough to justify the price differential. This card has been choking on chalk all the way through, so we might as well keep at it.
Pick: Dennis Siver.