UFC 94 Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 01/29/2009
The UFC has made a habit recently of booking deep and entertaining cards for their bigger events. They've really outdone themselves with UFC 94, though. The undercard is only solid, but it's more than made up for by one of the best, and most anticipated, main events in the history of the UFC. Two champions collide for Georges St. Pierre's welterweight belt. If B.J. Penn, the lightweight champion, wins he will become the first to hold title belts in two different weight classes at the same time. Beyond the hardware, though, this fight is soaked in history. St. Pierre beat Penn by decision in 2006 in a very controversial outcome. That fight and the subsequent events have launched both fighters to the top of the game. If this outcome is decisive then the winner will be side-by-side with Anderson Silva as the top fighter in the UFC. Here's a look at that fight and the other big fights on the card. All odds are from Bodog:
Georges St. Pierre (-185) vs. B.J. Penn (+130) - Penn followed up his loss to St. Pierre with another to Matt Hughes. The knock on him back then, and earlier in his career, was that he didn't have the commitment to fitness to match his impressive skills. It's clear that Penn has finally come to terms with that, because he is fitter and stronger now than he has ever been. St. Pierre won last time around in large part because Penn ran out of gas. There is a very good chance that that won't happen again this time around.
Penn is a better boxer, his takedown defense is slightly better, and his jiu-jitsu is superior. He'll have to hope that is enough to overcome his disadvantages. St. Pierre is naturally bigger and stronger, he's significantly more athletic, and his conditioning is superior even to the new-and-improved Penn. He also has a real advantage as a wrestler, so his chances of winning grow the longer the fight spends on the ground.
Handicapping this match is not easy. Odds aside, I would pick St. Pierre as the winner, and not just because he is a fellow Canadian. I like his reach advantage, his ground edge, and his stamina. The problem, though, is that I see this as a close fight - much closer than the odds represent. That means that the value rests in the fighter that I think has a slightly lower chance of winning.
Pick: B.J. Penn
Lyoto Machida (-266) vs. Thiago Silva (+200) - Both of these fighters have never been beaten in their 13 fights. The winer will likely earn a shot at Rashad Evans' light heavyweight belt. Machida has become the star he is through his excellent karate skills. He's not an exciting fighter to watch, but he's obviously effective. Silva has a much more aggressive, strike-heavy approach. That effectively overwhelms his opponents, but I doubt that it will work against Machida. Machida is too methodical and careful to be caught off guard by Silva, and Silva will be frustrated by Machida's approach.
Pick: Lyoto Machida
Stephan Bonnar (-175) vs. Jon Jones (+145) - Jones is an up-and-coming fighter that is undefeated. He's also only 21. Bonnar has lost to three different fighters in his career - Machida, Forrest Griffin and Rashad Evans. Those are the best of his weight class, and Bonnar is only a step behind him. Jones will ultimately climb higher than Bonnar in his career, but Bonnar's experience will be the edge here.
Pick: Stephan Bonnar
Karo Parisyan (-285) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (+225) - Parisyan was one of the fastest rising fighters in the sports a few years ago, but then injuries and problems with panic attacks slowed him down. This is his first fight in nine months, and that last match was a loss. He needs a boost to his career, and that should come here against a very outmatched Kim.
Pick: Karo Parisyan
Clay Guida (-115) vs. Nate Diaz (-120) - As the odds suggest, this is the closest fight on the card. Guida looks like a wild man, and he fights a bit like one, too. He takes risks and pushes the pace. Diaz is a far more methodical jiu jitsu specialist. Guida needs to avoid any costly mistakes, but if he can do that then he should be able to catch Diaz off guard.
Pick: Clay Guida
Jon Fitch (-575) vs. Akihiro Gono (+375) - Fitch has an even bigger edge than the odds suggest in this mismatch.
Pick: Jon Fitch
Thiago Tavares (-130) vs. Manny Gamburyan (even) - I expect very little from this fight beyond a Tavares victory, probably by decision.
Pick: Thiago Tavares
Chris Wilson (-325) vs. John Howard (+250) - This card is skewing heavily towards the favorites. Unfortunately, that trend can't be reversed here.
Pick: Chris Wilson
Jake O'Brien (-250) vs. Christian Wellisch (+195) - O'Brien has a significant class advantage here. I would be surprised to see this one last past the second round.
Pick: Jake O'Brien
Matt Arroyo (-185) vs. Dan Cramer (+155) - This one is a tossup that stands a good chance of going the distance. Might as well take the price in that case.
Pick: Dan Cramer