Dancing With the Stars Odds and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 3/25/2010
The latest season of ‘Dancing with the Stars’ got underway on Monday. I used to watch this show, but only because my wife made me. Thankfully we got past that. There are odds available on the competition, though, and handicapping anything with odds is at least vaguely interesting. I didn't watch the opening episode, but I've got enough pop culture knowledge to give this thing a go. Here's how I see this season breaking down from a betting perspective (all odds are from Bodog) and here are my ‘Dancing With the Stars’ predictions:
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Every season there are several contestants who clearly have no chance of winning or even lasting very long, but still have some reason to appear on the show. Buzz Aldrin is a heroic astronaut, but at 80 years old he's clearly not a world-class dancer. He scored the lowest score in the first round, and is 100/1 for a reason. Aiden Turner is much younger, and as an actor and model you'd think he might be able to move, but his performance in the first episode, at least judging by the scores, means that his stay will be short as well. He's 30/1. Niecy Nash is an actress I have never heard of, but apparently she is on ‘Reno 911’. She's the second longest shot on the board at 50/1, and wasn't entirely competitive in the first round. She'll be an early casualty. Kate Gosselin, 30/1, would be a runaway favorite if this was a race for the title of most ridiculous person on the planet, but a dancer she's not.
Shannen Doherty (20/1) couldn't last all the way until the end of ‘Beverly Hills 90210,’ and she's not going to last all the way to the end of this show either. Her partner, Mark Ballas, has won the show twice previously, but it seems very unlikely that he'll make it three. She didn't start strong, and she's not going to get significantly stronger. She's not going to win. Neither is Jake Pavelka (10/1). Fresh off of being ‘The Bachelor,’ Pavelka is on the show not because he's a dancer but because he's a media whore. He was far from the worst on the first show, but he's not good enough to go deep, either. Pamela Anderson (15/2) might have the odds of a contender, but I find it really hard to believe that she has the attention span to focus as long and as hard as you need to to win this show.
In The Mix
Chad Ochocinco (7/1) may be bizarre and flaky, but he's ridiculously athletic, and football players have done extremely well on the show in the past - Emmitt Smith won, and Jason Taylor, Warren Sapp, and Jerry Rice all finished second. I'd be higher on Chad if I thought he really cared about winning, but he stands a chance. If you are reading this then you know Erin Andrews as well as Ochocinco, and probably like her a heck of a lot more. She has some dance experience - she was a member of the Gators' basketball dance squad when she was a student at Florida. She'll be very popular among the husbands that are forced to watch the show, but it remains to be seen if that will turn into votes for her. She certainly has the legs to be a dancing champ.
The Heavy Favorites
This one really should come down to just two competitors. Nicole Scherzinger is the favorite at 3/2. She's the lead singer of The Pussycat Dolls, so she has had lots of practice at both following choreography and wearing skimpy, ridiculous outfits - both crucial DTWS skills. She has a good partner as well - Derek Hough won Season 7. She's practically made to win this show, and she won the first performance by two points out of a possible 30. There's a good reason she's at the price she is, and it's justified. If Scherzinger doesn't win then Evan Lysacek (2/1) would seem likely to do so. Fresh off of winning the gold medal in figure skating at the Olympics, Lysacek is looking to cash in before people forget his name. Choreography obviously isn't going to be a problem for Lysacek, either, as he has been doing it all his life. It's hard to know if he can transfer what he can do on ice onto the dance floor, but we know it has worked in the past - Kristi Yamaguchi was a runaway winner. The biggest thing that Lysacek has to overcome is that he seems to have the personality of a coffee table, and charisma is a big part of pulling off a win. My hunch is that Lysacek doesn't present much value at this price compared to Scherzinger.