Welcome to Doc's Sports Service Bovada Banner
spacer  
spacer spacer
Welcome to Doc's Sports Service spacer
Welcome to Doc's Sports Service Welcome to Doc's Sports Service
Welcome to Doc's Sports Service
Click Here to Purchase Doc's Picks
Basketball Picks   |   Hockey picks   |   NBA picks
Football Picks   |   NFL Picks   |   Breeders Cup
spacer



Live Lines and Odds NFL Odds
spacer
College Football Odds
spacer
NBA Odds
spacer
College
   Basketball Odds

spacer
MLB Odds
spacer
NHL Odds
spacer
Breeders Cup Odds
spacer
WNBA Odds
spacer
CFL Odds
spacer
Boxing Odds
spacer
Golf Odds
spacer
Soccer Odds
spacer
Week 8 NFL Odds
spacer
Doc's Rotation
spacer

Free Picks by Sport Free NFL Picks
spacer
Free College Football Picks
spacer
Free MLB Picks
spacer
Free NASCAR Picks
spacer
Free NBA Picks
spacer
Free College Basketball Picks
spacer
Free NHL Picks
spacer
All Free Picks
spacer

Handicapping Matchup Reports NFL
spacer
NCAA Football
spacer
NBA
spacer
NCAA Basketball
spacer
MLB
spacer
NHL
spacer

Scores NFL
spacer
NCAA Football
spacer
NBA
spacer
NCAA Basketball
spacer
MLB
spacer
NHL
spacer

Schedules NFL Schedule
spacer
College Football Schedule
spacer
College Basketball Schedule
spacer
MLB Schedule
spacer
NBA Schedule
spacer
NHL Schedule
spacer
Monday Night Football Schedule
spacer

Upcomming Event Coverage Monday Night Football Picks and Predictions
spacer
2014 Heisman Trophy Odds
spacer
MLB Futures Odds
spacer




Bovada Banner
spacer
spacer
Home
spacer
View Picks
spacer
Why Doc's Sports?
spacer
Our Betting System
spacer
Sports Betting Strategy
spacer
Message from the GM
spacer
Our Commitment
spacer
Customer Comments
spacer
Free Picks
spacer
Contact Doc's
spacer

The Advisory Board
Our Commitment
spacer
Doc's Sports
spacer
Robert Ferringo
spacer
Allen Eastman
spacer
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
spacer
Indian Cowboy
spacer
Jason Sharpe
spacer
Strike Point Sports
spacer
Mike Davis
spacer

Betting Systems
11th Hour Sports
spacer
The Prop Machine
spacer

Recomended Sportsbooks Bovada Sportsbook
spacer
5Dimes Sportsbook
spacer
BookMaker
spacer
Sportsbook
spacer
Carbon Sports
spacer
WagerWeb
spacer
BetOnline Sportsbook
spacer
GT Bets
spacer
SportsBettingOnline.ag
spacer
Sportsbook Bonus
spacer

Handicapping Resources
Mobile Website Directions
spacer
Weekly NFL Survivor Pool Picks
spacer
NFL Power Rankings 2014
spacer
NFL Office Pool Picks
spacer
Sports Betting Money Managment
spacer
Handicapping FAQ
spacer
Sports Betting 101
spacer
How To Betting Articles
spacer
Sports Betting Tips
spacer
Parlay Calculator
spacer
Sports Betting Systems
spacer
Parlay Cards
spacer
Gambling Terms
spacer
2014 Archives
spacer
2013 Archives
spacer
2012 Archives
spacer
2011 Archives
spacer
2010 Archives
spacer
Doc's Affiliate Program
spacer
Doc's Writer Bios
spacer
Doc's rss feedDoc's RSS feed



spacer
spacer

Football Betting: Weekly Public Action Report
by Trevor Whenham - 10/15/2010

Share |
Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Terrelle Pryor

The Public Action Report has been having a very good year. Last week wasn’t as strong as the ones before it, but at 4-3 it was still nicely profitable. This week we have encountered a situation that we haven’t seen in a long, long time - no NFL games fit our criteria. Luckily, college football is more than willing to pick up the slack - there are many games that fit to some extent, and six that are particularly interesting.

As always, a quick refresher. We can’t easily find out the amounts of money bet on each team in a football game - the books don’t like letting that information out. What they do release, though, is the distribution of bets - the number of bets placed on each team.

50% Match Play Reward
Reduced Juice Wagering
Click Here to signup with 5Dimes

As a general rule we would assume that when a large portion of those bets - more than 70 percent - are on one side in a game then the majority of money would be on that team as well and the odds would be adjusted to make that team less attractive in an attempt to balance the action. Sometimes, though, the large majority of bets will be on one team, yet the line will move to make that team more attractive.

That likely tells us one of two things - either a few bettors have bet a large amount of money on the unpopular team (that’s called the smart money), or for some reason the books just aren’t afraid of attracting unbalanced action because they aren’t afraid of being overexposed and losing too much.

No matter what the reason, this kind of line movement is a good indicator that the public isn’t on the right side. This can be a good way to spot potential upsets - for example, the Report picked South Carolina over Alabama last week. Here are the six games this week with info on the college football line moves:
 
Illinois (+7) at Michigan State (Saturday, Oct. 16, 12 pm ET) - More than three-quarters of all bets have predictably been on the undefeated Spartans, yet the line has dropped from the opening 7.5 to the key number of seven. That means that Illinois is worth a look. Michigan State is rolling, but they have the distractions of Mark Dantonio’s health and Chris L. Rucker’s legal woes to deal with, and Illinois is coming off a very dominating win at Penn State so they are confident and effective.

South Carolina (-4.5) at Kentucky (Saturday, Oct. 16, 6 pm ET) - The Gamecocks are flying high after a huge upset of Alabama, and the public is obviously taking notice of them. They have drawn more than 70 percent of the action here, yet the line has dropped from 6.5 to 4.5. That means Kentucky is worth a look. South Carolina could be vulnerable for a letdown and Kentucky played Auburn very tight last week, so they could be primed to at least keep this one close.

Iowa (-3) at Michigan (Saturday, Oct. 16, 3:30 pm ET) - More than three-quarters of the bets in this game have been on Iowa, yet the line has dropped from four to the key number of three. That means that my beloved Michigan Wolverines are worth a look. They are coming off an ugly loss to the Spartans last week, but the defense is making gradual progress, and they match up better with Iowa than with Michigan State. Iowa’s defense is very stout, but their only rough outing was against Arizona - another team with a dynamic quarterback who can make you hurt in several ways.

Oregon State (+2) at Washington (Saturday, Oct. 16, 10:15 pm ET) - The Beavers have drawn more than 70 percent of bets, yet they started out as favorites of 1.5 points and are now underdogs of two points. That means that Washington is worth a look. This is the fourth big game in a row for Oregon State - with three on the road - so it wouldn’t be a surprise if they were set for a letdown here.

Ohio State (-3.5) at Wisconsin (Saturday, Oct. 16, 7 pm ET) - More than three-quarters of the bets on this game have been on the new No. 1 team in the country, yet the line has fallen from 6.5 all the way to 3.5. That’s a move of a full field goal, and that’s significant. Wisconsin is worth a look. The Badgers are talented and bounced back well from their only loss, while Ohio State has won without looking totally dominant. Wisconsin will be fired up for this game, and they are at home.

Mississippi State (+7.5) at Florida (Saturday, Oct. 16, 12:30 pm ET) - Florida has drawn nearly 17 out of every 20 bets on this game, yet the line has dropped from 9.5 to 7.5. That’s a clear sign that Mississippi State is worth a look. Florida has looked unimpressive while losing two weeks in a row. Mississippi State beat up on Georgia and played Auburn tight, so they are a dangerous team - especially if they can limit their interceptions.

Share |

Most Recent Weekly Sports Betting and Handicapping News Articles