NFL Betting Advice: Overvalued and Undervalued Teams
by Jason Sharpe - 10/15/2010
The key to finding teams to bet on or against is the same concept as buying or selling a stock. In the NFL things aren't always as they appear if you are just looking at a team’s overall record. In order to stay ahead of the competition and beat the sportsbooks you need to know who are the most overvalued and undervalued teams in the league. Here below are the three most overvalued and undervalued teams in the NFL, currently, in my opinion.
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2 overall and 3-2 ATS) - The Jags have somehow managed to win three games so far this year and have done it while playing awful football. Both of the Jag losses have been in games where they were blown out by 25 points in each game, meaning despite their overall winning record the Jags have been outscored on the season by their opponents when factoring in averages of all the scores.
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They have also have had a very favorable schedule thus far as they play their fourth game of the year at home this Sunday. The Jags sport the worst defense in the NFL, allowing a league-worst 6.5 yards per play and rank 30th in the NFL in points allowed at 27.4 PPG. The Jags offense is also nothing special, ranking 23rd in the league at just more than 300 yards per game, nearly 75 yards per game less then they allow.
St.Louis Rams (2-3 overall and 3-2 ATS) - The Rams won only one game all of last year and came out and exceeded that total in their first four games this season. They were badly exposed last week by losing to the winless Detroit Lions, 44-6. There is no doubt that the Rams are improving, but this is still a team that ranks towards the very bottom of the NFL despite already having two wins.
Much like the Jags, the Rams have benefited from a very favorable early season schedule by playing their fourth home game this Sunday already in this young season. Though No. 1 draft pick Sam Bradford has played fairly well for a rookie quarterback, the Rams still rank 30th in the NFL in offense, averaging just 4.5 yards per play on the season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1 overall and 3-1 ATS) - The Bucs were a bottom-of-the-barrel team last year, winning a total of just three games on the season. They have already matched last season’s win total and did so after just four games this year. The Bucs three wins have been by a combined total of 19 points with their only loss being by 25 points. Their opponents through their first four games have outscored the Bucs.
On offense the Bucs have averaged 5.2 yards per play while allowing 5.7 yards per play on defense. With four of their next six games very winnable games against the Rams, Cardinals, Panthers and 49ers, who knows how many more wins the Bucs are capable of pulling off this year. However, don't be fooled by whatever number it is as this is still not a good football team.
San Diego Chargers (2-3 overall and 2-3 ATS) - The time to buy on the San Diego Chargers is now. As odd as it sounds the Chargers are just a few freak plays away from possibly being an undefeated team this season.
The Chargers have out gained every opponent so far this year. They already play their fourth road game this year on Sunday, just six games into season. The Chargers have averaged the highest yards per play on offense in the NFL and are second in the NFL in yards per play allowed on defense.
Incredibly, this is a team ranked in the top two in the league on both sides of the football and are just 2-3 on the season overall and clearly flying under the radar. This is really nothing new to a Chargers team who seem to always be slow out of the gates to start the year. However, with their loads of talent they seem to always make a late-season run at things. Be prepared as this year looks no different.
Kansas City Chiefs (3-1 overall and 3-1 ATS) – Okay. so you are saying the Chiefs are 3-1, how can they really be undervalued? Well they are, as KC is not getting nearly the respect that they deserve right now.
The Chiefs have done something that very few teams have been able to do this year, play well in every one of their games. It's long been known that to be successful in the NFL you must be able to run the football and stop the run. The Chiefs do both extremely well as they are ranked 3rd in the NFL running the ball and 6th in stopping the run.
As long as the Chiefs continue to do these two things well they will have a shot to keep making some noise this year. Slowly, most of the betting public is latching onto KC being a decent football team. However, the Chiefs have still managed to be underdogs in everyone of their five games that they have played so far this year.
Minnesota Vikings (1-3 overall and 1-3 ATS) - The Vikings are slowly starting to put everything in place. Don't give up on this team as there is tons of veteran talent on both sides of the football. The defense looks to be fixed and is playing at a very high level, allowing less than 300 yards per game and less then 17 points per contest, both ranking them in the Top 7 in the league in these two categories.
With the addition of Randy Moss to the mix on offense coupled with Brett Favre starting to play better of late, it won't be long until this highly talented offense gets things going. Though the Vikings are just 1-3 on the year so far, keep in mind they have had to play two prime time games on the road this year against and hung in there against the Saints and the Jets before just falling short late in the game.
Jason Sharpe has been excellent for his expert football picks at Doc’s Sports, and he is on a 21-12 NFL picks run. He has become known by those bookies for his college football and NFL handicapping capabilities and he expects to beat the majority of NFL point spreads this season and he plans on dominating the college football betting landscape as well! Call us toll-free at 1-866-238-6696 to find out about a free one-week football package from Sharpe or any Advisory Board handicapper of your choice (new clients only).