We continue with our onslaught of NFL prop stories with the odds, courtesy of WagerWeb, on which quarterback will lead the NFL in passing yards this season.
Now, this probably seems like an easy bet, but I want you to quickly tell yourself who led the league in passing yards last year. …. You probably said Drew Brees, and he was the NFC leader again. But Houston’s Matt Schaub led the NFL with 4,770 yards, so guys can deliver on some pretty long odds.
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But Brees is the co-favorite this year at +500 on WagerWeb and it’s hard to argue against him according to my NFL predictions. One concern might be if the Saints have home-field advantage locked up early like they did last year and Brees sits out a game or two again. But that’s rather unlikely as the Saints aren’t that powerful. One key is to also see if dome quarterbacks play a lot of cold-weather games because that usually affects them more than non-dome QBs. But Brees appears to have only two games where the elements should for sure be a factor: Week 13 at Cincinnati and Week 15 at Baltimore. Otherwise he should be in all warm-weather climates or domes. Plus Brees is due; consider he threw for the most yards in both 2006 and 2008. But as hard as it may be to believe, no quarterback has led the league in passing yards in back-to-back seasons since Warren Moon in 1990-91.
Peyton Manning is also at +500, but he has led the league in passing just twice and not since 2003 (he’s almost too unselfish). Plus his star center, Jeff Saturday, just got hurt and could miss a game or two in the regular season. Frankly, Indy’s terrible running game both works for and against Manning. I say ‘for’ him because obviously he has to throw a ton because the Colts can’t run, but ‘against’ because defenses know that and try to protect against the pass (not that it works much, although it did fairly well for the Saints, who all but ignored the run). Indy ranked 32nd in rushing last year a season after ranking 31st. The team swears it will boost the run game and try to take some of the load off of Manning. And even No. 18 says the offense is better when there’s the threat of play-action. The Colts had an AFC-low 366 rushing attempts last season, while Manning threw 571 passes. Look for that ratio to change at least a little. Thus I don’t like Manning at these short odds.
Schaub is at +550, but I think he’s a one-year wonder. Yes he has Andre Johnson but last year was the first time he had made it through the full year as a starter. He'd played only 22 of a possible 32 games the past two years.
Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is next at +600. I know Brett Favre led the league in passing yards twice while with the Pack, but I just think the weather is too much of a factor. For example, Rodgers’ final three games of this season could be in some wretched winter weather: at New England and home to the Giants and Bears. Pass (pardon the pun) on Rodgers.
I really like the Cowboys’ Tony Romo at +900 with all the weapons he has. Perhaps the two best long-shot bets are the Giants’ Eli Manning at +2000 and Philly’s Kevin Kolb at +2200. Eli quietly threw for more than 4,000 yards last year and has some nice young receivers; plus it appears the G-Men have shifted their offensive focus away from the run. And Kolb because Eagles coach Andy Reid loves to throw and Kolb has two big-player receivers in Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson. It’s just a coincidence that my three recommendations are all from the NFC East, by the way. But I’d go with Romo first and Eli second.
Allen Eastman is back with his 99 System for NFL predictions in 2010 and before he even came across this system he was considered one of the best NFL handicappers making picks against NFL point spreads in the nation – now he is even better with this wining NFL betting system. Last season the 99 System was 27-13 ATS and this system not only helped his clients make a ton of money, but also helped Eastman to third place in the prestigious Las Vegas Hilton NFL Contest.