College Football Picks: Mid-Major Game Day Predictions Week 7
by Dave Schwab - 10/10/2011
Most college teams have already played five or six games this season so the oddsmakers now have been able to compile more than enough information to really fine-tune the college football odds for the upcoming games. Fortunately, there is always value to be found in the spreads, especially when it comes to matchups in the mid-major conferences. These lines tend to stay true as these games are much less influenced by the betting public than the marquee contests in the major conferences.
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Each week, we crunch the numbers in these ‘under the radar’ matchups in an effort to bring this value to the surface. Last week, we cashed in on Western Michigan and Nevada, so here are a few more solid college football picks for this week’s games.
Toledo Rockets (-8) vs. Bowling Green Falcons
Toledo was able to even its record to 3-3 straight-up (4-2 against the spread) last Saturday with a dominating 54-16 victory over Eastern Michigan as a 20.5-point home favorite in a Mid-American West Division matchup. The Rockets are averaging 35.8 points a game, while giving up 25.2.
Last week, we were all over Western Michigan as a 10-point home favorite against Bowling Green in a game the Falcons lost, 45-21. This week is much different as the table is set for the Falcons at home in a more favorable matchup. Their offense should be able to move the ball much better in the air against the Rockets and return to the form that has them averaging 32.8 points a game.
Toledo is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Bowling Green and the home team in this series is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Falcons have actually won the last two games at home SU against the Rockets, and while they probably will not be able pull-off the outright upset, they will cover with the eight points.
Prediction: Toledo 38, Bowling Green 34
North Texas Mean Green vs. UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (-9.5)
North Texas has been an up-and-down team all season long with a 2-4 SU record, but it has won its last four games ATS. The Mean Green covered as 23-point road underdogs two weeks ago in a 41-24 loss to Tulsa and covered last week in a 31-17 victory over Florida International as 3.5-point home favorites.
UL Lafayette is 5-1 SU on the year (4-2 ATS) and is coming off a huge 31-17 Sun Belt Conference win over Troy as a six-point home underdog. The main thing that remains sketchy about this team is a defense that is giving up an average of 31.8 points a game, which is ranked 95th in the nation. There is also the possibility of a bit of a letdown after last week’s big upset win.
The Mean Green is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series overall and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six trips to Cajun Field in Lafayette. Adding to the favorable trends for North Texas, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six games and the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five.
The Pick: UL Lafayette 31, North Texas 24
Utah State Aggies (-3.5) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
Utah State bounced back from a tough 27-24 loss to BYU two weeks ago as a 7.5-point road underdog with a 63-19 thrashing of Wyoming as a 10.5-point home favorite this past Saturday. The two things this team does the best is run the ball, with an average of 307.5 yards a game, and score points, with an average of 37.5 a game. The Aggies are just 2-3 SU, but 4-1 ATS.
Fresno State is 2-4 both SU and ATS this season. It is coming off a 57-7 loss to Boise State this past Friday night as a 21-point home underdog. This followed a 38-28 loss to Mississippi as a 3.5-point home favorite the week before. The Bulldogs are ranked near the bottom of D-IA in points allowed; giving up an average of 36.5 points a game.
The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, while the Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. Head-to-head, Utah State is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, despite going just 1-5 SU. Fresno State is 1-0 SU in the Western Athletic Conference, while this will be the conference opener for Utah State.
The Prediction: Utah State 42, Fresno State 31
Doc’s Sports has the bookies shaking in their boots as our expert football picks have helped $100 bettors earn nearly $4,500 on the season thus far. Doc has a big card coming this weekend and we look to extend our Top Play run for football (9-3 this season for Top Plays). Click Here for the best NFL and college football handicapping on the Net.