Kentucky Derby Predictions
by Frank Doyle of Sports Interaction - 5/3/2011
The only thing we can be sure about this year’s Kentucky Derby is that it’s going to be one hell of a race.
A lot of Derbies are about a superhorse coming to Kentucky for a coronation. If Uncle Mo had won the Wood Memorial he would have been that superhorse but instead he had a disaster, finishing a poor third to Toby’s Corner.
Trainer Todd Pletcher put that third place finish down to illness but even now, in Derby week, there’s no certainty that Uncle Mo will go to post. He might be the best horse in Louisville on Saturday, but it’s very hard to have faith in him for a bet.
Nick Zito’s Dialled In looks like the next best option. He won the Florida Derby, Zito’s a Hall of Fame trainer with two Derby winners already and Dialled In is fast. Add in the fact that he’s out of Mineshaft, one of the great sires of his era, and that makes Dialled In a real contender.
Unless he gets drawn on the rail, maybe. Or else it turns up mud.
The weather was the decisive factor in the Derby last year and the early weather forecast for Churchill Downs predicts isolated thunderstorms for Saturday. If the going becomes very heavy, Soldat is the best mudlark in the field.
A poor show in the Florida Derby helps explain the lack of faith in Soldat, as it does Stay Thirsty, Uncle Mo’s stablemate. Stay Thirsty is flying under the radar into Churchill Downs, but he’s very much a horse to watch. He’s piloted by Ramon Dominguez, who is overdue a win at a Triple Crown race, and he likes mud just fine. Just fine.
The most interesting contender of the race is Master of Hounds, brought over from Ireland by Aiden O’Brien. The Irish love horses, and O’Brien is a national hero there. Master of Hounds was terrible in the Breeders Cup at Churchill Downs last year but O’Brien isn’t the type to go all they way from Ireland to Kentucky just to see the ladies’ hats. Master of Hounds is a good each way bet at the 137th Kentucky Derby.
Kentucky Derby Picks:
- Stay Thirsty, +2000.
- Dialed In, +420.
- Master of Hounds, +2500.
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