Jimmie Johnson will attempt to win back-to-back Sprint Cup Chase races this weekend as NASCAR heads to Concord, North Carolina and Charlotte Motor Speedway on Saturday night at 7:46 for the Bank of America 500.
Stock car investors should keep in mind that Johnson leads all active drivers with six wins at CMS, yet he hasn’t won at Charlotte since 2009 when he won from the pole. And that’s the last time a pole-sitter has won this race. There have been eight season sweeps at Charlotte; including every season from 2004-07. Kevin Harvick won the Coca-Cola 600 in May. The BofA 500 is the ninth Sprint Cup race run on 1.5-mile track in 2011. The previous eight 1.5-mile races have been won by eight different drivers. Tony Stewart won his first pole of the season for Saturday’s BofA 500 event. Matt Kenseth will start next to him in the first row.
Who will win the Bank of America 500?
Carl Edwards leads Harvick by one point for first place in the Sprint Cup standings. Edwards is looking for his first win at Charlotte, and he has not finished well in North Carolina. In the May race Edwards led for 61 laps, but he finished 16th. Edwards is coming off a shaky race at Kansas and is lucky to hold onto the lead going into Charlotte. Despite never winning at Charlotte Edwards has 13.3 average finish, the second best behind Johnson’s 10.8 average finish. Edwards will start the BofA 500 from third and you should consider him armed and dangerous.
Harvick sports a 19.1 average finish at CMS, as he attempts the season sweep in Concord. Harvick has said in the past that he doesn’t like Charlotte, but he has finished in the Top 10 in his last two races and has notched two Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in 21 starts. Harvick apparently is getting better racing at Charlotte as of late and he seems to be comfortable enough to earn at least another Top-10 finish on Saturday to keep pace with the Sprint Cup leaders. I am not sold, however, that he will win the BofA 500.
Earlier I pointed out that in the eight 1.5-mile races this season there have been eight different winners. Those winners are Edwards, Kenseth, Harvick, Keselowski (in the first Kansas race), Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, Stewart, and Johnson. After the BofA 500 this is likely to change, unless someone resuscitates Denny Hamlin. Hamlin has shown that he is not ready for the mental grind of the Chase (yet) and he is out of contention in 12th place and 79 points behind the leader. Hamlin finished in 10th place in May and has notched two consecutive Top-10 finishes at Charlotte. Unfortunately a Top-10 finish won’t get Hamlin back in contention for the Sprint Cup.
Johnson, meanwhile, has led 555 laps, or 20 percent of all laps raced in the last eight races; more than any other driver. Johnson also graced the cover of Sports Illustrated this week, which raises all kinds of red flags for me. You can throw all statistics out the window when this happens. Whether you believe in curses or jinxes or not, I see the SI cover as a bad omen; sort of like celebrating the TD before crossing the goal line. JJ hasn’t won his sixth Sprint Cup just yet. This cover came on the heels of Double-J’s dominant win at Kansas. Johnson will start from ninth place on the grid at the track he made his bitch from 2005-07, winning five of six races in three years! Don’t say I didn’t warn you. I am laying-off Johnson this week.
Stewart lost four spots and fell to seventh place after Kansas and will start the BofA 500 from the pole. Stewart has already won two Chase races, but he has fallen off the pace in his last two races. Problem for ole’ ‘Smoke’ is that he’s finished outside the Top 10 in his last seven starts at CMS.
Kyle Busch is 20 points out of first place and is stuck at eighth place in the Sprint Cup standings. And while Busch has four wins in 2011, he has virtually disappeared in the Chase. Busch hasn’t been good or bad, he’s just been sort of boring for the first third of the Chase. I wonder how long Busch can keep it up? I understand he’s been working on his patience, but how patient is too patient? Busch has never won at CMS, but he has recorded five Top-5 and eight Top-10finishes at Charlotte. Even though Busch is starting from 25th on the grid I like Busch to get ‘Rowdy’ on Saturday night.
Pick! Kyle Busch, No.18, (+800)
Bank of America 500 Lucky Dog Long Odds
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has the dubious distinction of being the only Chase driver not to win a race in 2011. Earnhardt, Jr. has also never won at Charlotte. Despite a dearth of wins, Junior’s season hasn’t exactly been a disaster. Junior made the Chase, finished third at Chicagoland and has a 14.3 finish average in his last five races. Earnhardt, Jr. improved one spot to move to eighth place and 43 points out of first. Junior finished the Coca-Cola 600 in seventh place and led for two laps. At this point, however, Junior is realistically out of contention for the Sprint Cup and will be racing for pride for the remainder of the Chase – which doesn’t mean he won’t win one before the end of the season, he just won’t win the Cup. Sorry to dash your hopes Junior Nation.
Pick! Dale Earnhardt, Jr., No.88, (+2400)
BofA 500 – Odds to win
Charlotte Motor Speedway – Oct. 15, 2011 7:46 p.m.
Jimmie Johnson+475
Carl Edwards+800
Kyle Busch +800
Denny Hamlin +1775
Jeff Gordon +975
Kevin Harvick +1250
Tony Stewart +1250
Matt Kenseth +1100
Kurt Busch +1450
Dale Earnhardt Jr +2400
Clint Bowyer+3000
Mark Martin+3800
Jeff Burton +5500
Greg Biffle +2000
Joey Logano +4500
Juan Pablo Montoya +5500
Jamie McMurray +2200
Ryan Newman +3300
Kasey Kahne +2300
David Reutimann+3800
Martin Truex +3800
Brian Vickers +2200
David Ragan +3800
Brad Keselowski +1400
AJ Allmendinger +5000
FIELD +2200
*Odds courtesy of 5Dimes
Bovada Sportsbook •
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