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NASCAR: Good Sam RV Insurance 500 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 8/5/2011

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NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin

Sprint Cup points leader Carl Edwards inked a multi-year deal this week to stay at Roush Fenway Racing through 2012 and beyond. Now Edwards can concentrate on the “Tricky-Triangle” of Pocono Raceway as NASCAR heads to the Keystone State for the Good Sam RV Insurance 500 this Sunday at 1:18 p.m.

NASCAR enthusiasts looking to earn a few extra bucks on this race should keep in mind that Jeff Gordon and Bill Eliot lead all drivers with five victories each at Pocono. Twenty nine different drivers have won at Pocono, with 20 drivers winning more than one race. Denny Hamlin (8.2) and Jimmie Johnson (9.5) are the only active drivers with Top-10 average finishes at Pocono.  Hendrick Motorsports leads all car owners with 12 wins at the track. Finally, this year NASCAR has added shifting to the mix at Pocono. This added element should give the drivers something to do over the 2.5 mile track, but it also adds to the skill of the sport since shifting correctly will is so important for the vehicles’ delicate gear-boxes.

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Who will win the Good Sam RV Insurance 500?

Jeff Gordon will attempt a season sweep at Pocono and prove that he is the flat-track king this year. Gordon is coming off a second-place finish at the Brickyard last week and he did not move from his seventh-place position in the standings last week. Gordon is still 52 points out of the lead, but is in a comfortable position with a handful of races before the Chase starts next month. However, Gordon’s numbers at Pocono are almost obscene. In 37 career starts at Pocono he has put together 17 Top-5 and 26 Top-10 finishes, and in the last five Pocono races he has notched four Top-10 finishes. Gordon’s team looks solid right now, and although I am not backing Gordon this week, he is definitely worth serious consideration in win-market or top-three betting.

Edwards must be feeling pretty good about his chances to win the Sprint Cup with Roush Fenway Racing as Cousin’ Carl ignored huge money (and engine troubles) from Joe Gibbs Racing and stayed in the fold. He was his own agent and the details of the deal were not released other than the fact that Edwards will be RFR’s go-to driver over the next few years. Edwards last won this race in 2008 and he also won at Pocono in 2005.  Edwards finished the race 37th last year, and he has notched only one Top-10 in the past four races.

Four-time Pocono winner Denny Hamlin led the June race for 76 laps before the No. 11 car got a flat and Hamlin finished 19th. This weekend, as long as his engine doesn’t blow-up, he has got to be considered the driver to beat on Sunday since, along with his four wins at Pocono, he had eight Top-10s in 11 starts. Hamlin is in 11th place and currently 19 points behind Dale Earnhardt, Jr. who occupies 10th place in the Sprint Cup standings. Hamlin will need to get into the Top 1- if he hopes to make the Chase next month.  Pocono is Hamlin’s best track, and a win will vault him into the Top 10.   

Pick! Denny Hamlin, No. 11, +350

Good Sam RV Insurance 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

Joey Logano lost a spot last week to fall to 19th place in the Sprint Cup and 77 points out of the Top 10. Logano has slowly become a better flat-track driver. At Loudon a few weeks ago Logano finished in fourth place, and in the June race at Pocono he finished 11th; good enough for his best finish in five starts at Pocono. However, Logano faltered last week as he ran into all kinds of problems at the Brickyard, finishing 25th. This weekend he’ll try to get back on track and perhaps win on fuel mileage (as long as his engine doesn’t blow up).
 
Pick! Joey Logano, No. 20, +5000

Good Sam RV Insurance 500 – Odds for Top 3 Finish

Driving the double-deuce has paid dividends for Kurt Busch this year. Busch is currently 18 points out of first place, and he is solidly in sixth place in the Sprint Cup standings. Bush fell three spots from third last week thanks to his 21st-place finish at the Brickyard. However, the elder Busch has been pretty good at Pocono with three Top-10 finishes in his last four starts. In 21 starts at Pocono Busch has recorded eight Top-5s and 11 Top-10 finishes and has won twice at Pocono (July 2005, August 2007). In June Busch started from the Pole and finished in second place. While he may not win this race, he has the stones to finish in the Top 3.  

Pick! Kurt Busch, No. 22, +300

Good Sam RV Insurance 500 – Odds for Top 3 Finish
Pocono Raceway, Long Pond, PA -  August 7, 2011

150 AJ Allmendinger     +2000  
151 Bobby Labonte     +3000  
152 Brad Keselowski     +1200  
153 Brian Vickers     +2000  
154 Carl Edwards     +250  
155 Clint Bowyer     +900  
156 Dale Earnhardt Jr     +900  
157 David Ragan     +1500  
158 David Reutimann     +2000  
159 Denny Hamlin     +120  
160 Greg Biffle     +600  
161 Jamie McMurray     +3000  
162 Jeff Burton     +1500  
163 Jeff Gordon     +150  
164 Jimmie Johnson     +150  
165 Joey Logano     +1500  
166 Juan Pablo Montoya     +1000  
167 Kasey Kahne     +900  
168 Kevin Harvick     +350  
169 Kurt Busch     +300  
170 Kyle Busch     +300  
171 Marcos Ambrose     +3000  
172 Mark Martin     +1500  
173 Martin Truex Jr     +1800  
174 Matt Kenseth     +300  
175 Paul Menard     +1800  
176 Regan Smith     +3000  
177 Ryan Newman     +900  
178 Tony Stewart     +350  
179 Field (Any Other Driver)     +3000 

Kobalt Tools 400 – Odds to Win
Pocono Raceway, Long Pond, PA - August 7, 2011

101 AJ Allmendinger     +7000  
102 Bobby Labonte     +8000  
103 Brad Keselowski     +4000  
104 Brian Vickers     +7000  
105 Carl Edwards     +800  
106 Clint Bowyer     +3000  
107 Dale Earnhardt Jr     +3000  
108 David Ragan     +5000  
109 David Reutimann     +7000  
110 Denny Hamlin     +350  
111 Greg Biffle     +2000  
112 Jamie McMurray     +8000  
113 Jeff Burton     +5000  
114 Jeff Gordon     +500  
115 Jimmie Johnson     +500  
116 Joey Logano     +5000  
117 Juan Pablo Montoya     +4000  
118 Kasey Kahne     +3000  
119 Kevin Harvick     +1200  
120 Kurt Busch     +900  
121 Kyle Busch     +1000  
122 Marcos Ambrose     +8000  
123 Mark Martin     +5000  
124 Martin Truex Jr     +6000  
125 Matt Kenseth     +1500  
126 Paul Menard     +6000  
127 Regan Smith     +8000  
128 Ryan Newman     +3000  
129 Tony Stewart     +1200  
130 Field     +8000

 

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