Jeff Gordon got an early Father’s Day present, winning at Pocono last week and now 10 points separate first place from Junior Nation as NASCAR heads to Michigan International Speedway this Sunday at 1:19 p.m. for the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400

Gamblers should note that Jimmie Johnson has led 447 laps in the last eight races at MIS, but Double-J is 0-18 at this track. Meanwhile, teammate Jeff Gordon has been money at MIS with two seconds and one fourth-place finish in four races. Starting position is important at MIS as 16 of 83 races have been won from the pole, the most from any position on the starting grid, and 65 of 83 races have been won from the Top 10 on the starting grid. Finally, Toyota has never won at Michigan International Speedway.

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NASCAR Odds: Who will win the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400?

Don’t look now, but Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has moved into third place in the standings and trails Carl Edwards by 10 points and Johnson by four.  Junior Nation has many reasons to be pleased going into Michigan, the site of Junior’s last win three years ago. It has been a long winless drought for the faithful. However, it is obvious that Junior is no longer NASCAR’s whipping boy.

Junior has a very good chance of wining on Father’s Day. Consider that Earnhardt, Jr, has four Top-5s and eight Top-10 finishes in 23 races at MIS. More importantly, he has two Top-10 finishes in his last three starts at Pocono and finished seventh place last June. I am bit nervous about backing Junior after the fuel mileage fiasco at the Coca-Cola 600 when the No. 88 ran out of gas on the final lap when he had the lead.

Kyle Busch never manages to escape controversy, and this week the No. 18 failed post-race inspection after Pocono. Busch was docked six-points for this violation, and his third-place finish means he is in fifth place in the Sprint Cup standings. This is a significant penalty when you look at it in terms of the new points system. Busch now finds himself 31 points behind Edwards rather than 24.

Edwards and Johnson haven’t moved in the standings and are still 1-2, respectively, but the lead is tightening and one mistake by Edwards and Johnson could move into first. Edwards has two wins at MIS (June 2007, August 2008), but none since. Edwards has notched eight Top-5s and 11 Top-10 finishes in 13 starts. Edwards was 12th in this race last year and third in the August race. He has seven Top-10 finishes in his last eight MIS starts. Despite these monster stats, I am still going to go with the car that I think will qualify best at MIS, No. 48.

Pick!  Jimmie Johnson, No. 48, (+700)

NASCAR Predictions: Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400- Lucky Dog Long Odds

Penske Motorsports’ Brad Keselowski is currently 72 points out of the Top 10 in the Sprint Cup standings but comes ‘home’ close to where he was born in Rochester Hills.  Keselowksi’s ride is the Blue Deuce this year, and while he hasn’t made a lot of noise in Sprint Cup racing, he has won the last two Nationwide races at MIS. So if you are looking for a live ‘dog this week, perhaps Keselowski can help team Penske get off the schnied.   

Pick! Brad Keselowski, 2, +6000

Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 - Top Three Finish 

Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin is the defending race champion. Hamlin is quietly creeping up the standings despite having what should be considered a ‘disappointing’ first third of the season. Hamlin is still looking for his first win of 2011 after winning eight races in 2010. In his last six races Hamlin has alternated between single-digit and double-digit finishes, at Pocono last week Hamlin started fourth and finished 14th. Hamlin’s last four races at MIS are remarkable in that Hamlin has three Top-3s, which is one of the reason’s Hamlin makes it as this week’s pick for Top Three Finish.   

Pick! Denny Hamlin, No. 11, (+300)

Odds to finish Top 3 - Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400
Michigan International Speedway – 6/19/11 1:19 p.m. (EST)

AJ Allmendinger      +2000  
Brad Keselowski      +1800  
Brian Vickers      +900  
Carl Edwards      +150  
Clint Bowyer      +700  
Dale Earnhardt Jr      +300  
David Ragan      +1000  
David Reutimann      +2000  
Denny Hamlin      +300  
Greg Biffle      +350  
Jamie McMurray      +1800  
Jeff Burton      +1500  
Jeff Gordon      +300  
Jimmie Johnson      +200  
Joey Logano      +1200  
Juan Pablo Montoya      +1500  
Kasey Kahne      +600  
Kevin Harvick      +300  
Kurt Busch      +450  
Kyle Busch      +300  
Marcos Ambrose      +2000  
Mark Martin      +1200  
Martin Truex Jr      +1500  
Matt Kenseth      +300  
Paul Menard      +2000  
Regan Smith      +3000  
Ryan Newman      +1000  
Tony Stewart      +350  
Trevor Bayne      +3000  
Field (Any Other Driver)      +3000 

Odds to Win - Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400
Michigan International Speedway – 6/19/11 1:19 p.m. (EST)

101                       AJ Allmendinger      +7000  
102                       Brad Keselowski      +6000  
103                       Brian Vickers      +3000  
104                       Carl Edwards      +500  
105                       Clint Bowyer      +2500  
106                       Dale Earnhardt Jr      +1000  
107                       David Ragan      +3500  
108                       David Reutimann      +7000  
109                       Denny Hamlin      +1000  
110                       Greg Biffle      +1200  
111                       Jamie McMurray      +6000  
112                       Jeff Burton      +5000  
113                       Jeff Gordon      +1000  
114                       Jimmie Johnson      +700  
115                       Joey Logano      +4000  
116                       Juan Pablo Montoya      +5000  
117                       Kasey Kahne      +2000  
118                       Kevin Harvick      +1000  
119                       Kurt Busch      +1500  
120                       Kyle Busch      +1000  
121                       Marcos Ambrose      +7000  
122                       Mark Martin      +4000  
123                       Martin Truex Jr      +5000  
124                       Matt Kenseth      +1000  
125                       Paul Menard      +7000  
126                       Regan Smith      +8000  
127                       Ryan Newman      +3500  
128                       Tony Stewart      +1200  
129                       Trevor Bayne      +8000  
130                       Field (Any Other Driver)      +8000