Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick’s fight on pit-row last weekend almost ruined Regan Smith’s celebration at Darlington for his first NASCAR win. Almost. This week Smith will try to make it two consecutive races for the Furniture Row Gang as the Sprint Cup Series heads down to the Monster Mile at Dover International Speedway on Sunday May 15 at 1:15 p.m. for the FEDEX 400 benefiting Autism Speaks.

Auto racing enthusiasts who want to take a position on this race should understand that in recent years it has been the Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch show since, combined, they have won the last five races at Dover. And speaking of Johnson, he leads all active drivers with six wins at Dover while his team, Hendrick Motorsports, has 12 wins at the Monster Mile.  Finally, 13 races have been won from the pole, but 17 races have also been won from outside the Top 10 on the starting grid. However, no race has been won at Dover by higher than eighth since 2007. The last driver to win from the pole was Johnson last September.

NASCAR Picks: Who will win the FEDEX 400 – Autism Speaks?

Pit-row after the Showtime Southern 500 resembled a demolition derby thanks to Harvick and Busch’s spat. Busch wrecked Harvick with four laps to go and Harvick, after the race, managed to park in front of Busch’s on Pit-row. When Harvick got out of his car to allegedly punch Busch through his driver side window netting, Busch hit the No. 29 car bumper and it almost rolled into a few of the pit-crew. The cameras managed to pick all this up, but forgot the real action was with the race-winner Smith celebrating his first Sprint Cup victory (well his first legal victory that wasn’t stripped from him for going below the yellow line at Talladega a few years ago).

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Both Busch and Harvick were put on a four-race probation that extends through the All-Star Shoot-Out. Busch ended up finishing the race in 11th place, and he didn’t lose any points and is still in third place while Harvick is still in fifth place and 50 points out of first and 11 points behind Kyle Busch. In fact, the Top 5 stayed the same this week with Carl Edwards holding onto to the lead by 23-points over Johnson in second. Dale Earnhardt, Jr is still fourth and 47 points behind Edwards, who finished second last weekend but couldn’t pass Smith on the backstretch.

The reason I bring up the fight between Busch and Harvick is because this will most likely affect their driving on Sunday. The blood is bad between these two drivers and ordinarily Busch would look very tempting to back, but I think both Harvick and Busch will spend a majority of the time worrying about how to get each other rather than driving to win the race. Before Darlington only Kyle Busch was entered in Friday night’s truck race. After the incident Harvick entered the truck race as well, perhaps he just wants to be in a pick-up truck after a long race, or maybe he wants to try to get to Kyle before Sunday. In either case, I advise laying off both of these drivers until they can focus on the race rather than each other.
In the meantime I am backing the driver who team has one of the best short-track packages of group. You know who, right?

Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No. 48,   

FEDEX 400 Lucky Dog Long Odds Pick?

After Smith cashed a 10000-1 ticket last week (did you have him? I didn’t.), perhaps other drivers will be ready to take a gamble on bald tires and beat out the current No. 1 driver, or not. In either case, the fact is that once the race starts anyone can win, even if they haven’t done much up to that point (take Smith for instance). Furniture Row Racing in Colorado is rocking now. Attempting to divine another long shot might be like trying to get it to rain in Oklahoma, but I am looking at the driver who led the fall race at Dover for 143 laps before getting a flat tire. Allmendinger is currently 11th place in the standings, and with how Richard Petty Motorsports has done over the last year with their short-track program it is not beyond the realm of imagination that AJ might just steal a win on Sunday. 

Pick! AJ Allmendinger, +2000

FEDEX 400 – Autism Speaks Top-Three Finish

This week I like Jeff Burton in this spot. Consider that despite his difficulties of late last season he finished both races at Dover in second place. In 34 starts Burton has one win and 15 Top 10s. Historically Burton has not qualified well at Dover, but don’t let that fool you, Burton’s pit crew is excellent. One of the secrets of winning at Dover is speed (not speeding) in the pits. Dover is tight and difficult to pit and results in a lot of violations. If Burton can avoid those he has a good chance to finish in the top-three.

Pick! Jeff Burton, No. 31, +750

FEDEX 400 – Autism Speaks – Odds* to Finish Top Three

150      AJ Allmendinger        +2000  
151      Bobby Labonte          +3000  
152      Brad Keselowski        +3000  
153      Brian Vickers             +900  
154      Carl Edwards             +250  
155      Clint Bowyer             +600  
156      Dale Earnhardt Jr       +600  
157      David Ragan              +2000  
158      David Reutimann       +1500  
159      Denny Hamlin            +250  
160      Greg Biffle                 +600  
161      Jamie McMurray        +900  
162      Jeff Burton                +750  
163      Jeff Gordon               +350  
164      Jimmie Johnson          +150  
165      Joey Logano               +750  
166      Juan Pablo Montoya +900  
167      Kasey Kahne              +750  
168      Kevin Harvick            +350  
169      Kurt Busch                +450  
170      Kyle Busch                            +150  
171      Marcos Ambrose        +3000  
172      Mark Martin               +750  
173      Martin Truex Jr          +1500  
174      Matt Kenseth             +600  
175      Paul Menard               +2000  
176      Regan Smith              +3000  
177      Ryan Newman           +900  
178      Tony Stewart             +350  
179      Field                           +3000  

FEDEX 400 – Autism Speaks – Odds* to Win

101      AJ Allmendinger        +7500  
102      Bobby Labonte          +8000  
103      Brad Keselowski        +8000  
104      Brian Vickers             +3000  
105      Carl Edwards             +800  
106      Clint Bowyer             +2000  
107      Dale Earnhardt Jr       +2000  
108      David Ragan              +7500 
109      David Reutimann       +5000  
110      Denny Hamlin            +800  
111      Greg Biffle                +2000  
112      Jamie McMurray        +3000  
113      Jeff Burton                +2500  
114      Jeff Gordon               +1200  
115      Jimmie Johnson          +500  
116      Joey Logano               +2500  
117      Juan Pablo Montoya+3000  
118      Kasey Kahne              +2500  
119      Kevin Harvick            +1200  
120      Kurt Busch                +1500  
121      Kyle Busch                            +500  
122      Marcos Ambrose        +8000 
123      Mark Martin               +2500 
124      Martin Truex Jr          +5000  
125      Matt Kenseth             +2000  
126      Paul Menard               +7500  
127      Regan Smith              +8000  
128      Ryan Newman           +3000  
129      Tony Stewart             +1200  
130      Field                           +8000  

*Odds courtesy of BetUS.