NBA Betting Trends: Hot and Cold Teams Against the Point Spread
by Aaron Smith - 2/7/2011
On the day after Super Bowl Sunday, it’s time to get our focus back on the NBA. Since trends are important when betting on the NBA, we take a look at the hot and cold teams right now to see if there is a way to get an edge on the books. Please note the statistics used in this report are from games played between Jan.24 and Feb. 6.
Top Five “Hot” ATS NBA Teams
-Dallas Mavericks (6-1 ATS) The Mavericks are a perfect example of how quickly a team can turn it around in the NBA. They were 1-6 ATS in the previous report, but they now top the list at 6-1 over the last two weeks. Dirk Nowitzki is finally getting healthy again, and this team is back to being one of the top teams in the league.
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-San Antonio Spurs (5-1 ATS) San Antonio has been remarkably consistent this year. The Spurs are 30-18-2 ATS overall on the year. They start a five-game East Coast road trip in Detroit on Tuesday, so we’ll see if the Spurs can keep their winning ways going.
-Chicago Bulls (4-1 ATS) The Chicago Bulls have adjusted to life without Joakim Noah quite well. At first it appeared the team would struggle without Noah, but with strong contributions from others the Bulls have gone on a nice streak. Noah will be back after the All-Star Break, and I fully expect this team to be even better once he is healthy.
-Miami Heat (5-2 ATS) The trio of stars are finally all healthy in Miami, and this team is really playing some good basketball right now. Most bettors see this as an offensive juggernaut, but the reality is the Heat are consistently winning games with their defense. Miami is first in the NBA in field goal percentage defense.
-New York Knicks (5-2 ATS) The Knicks have made their way onto the hot list once again. Danilo Gallinari is playing the best basketball of his career right now, which is a real boost to this team. The Knicks play four of their next five at home.
Bottom Five “Cold” ATS NBA Teams
-New Orleans Hornets (1-6 ATS) The Hornets have been all over the map this year, and right now they are on the downswing. Their inability to beat the other top teams in the Western Conference, especially the Lakers, has to be a little concerning.
-Orlando Magic (2-6 ATS) The Magic are struggling right now, especially on the road. They are just 10-16-1 ATS on the road this year. I still think this is a better team than they were before their major trades, but they don’t seem to be able to keep up with the Heat or the Celtics.
-Washington Wizards (2-6 ATS) The Washington Wizards still haven’t won a game on the road all year long. They’ll get their best chance yet on Feb. 13, when they travel to Cleveland to take on the hapless Cavaliers. Washington’s offensive production has declined dramatically over the last few games.
-New Jersey Nets (2-6 ATS) New Jersey has some talent, but they don’t have a deep team, and their chemistry seems to be lacking. They’ll finish the first half of the season against the Spurs and the Celtics, so the road isn’t getting any easier in the near future.
-Portland Blazers (1-4-1 ATS) The Blazers were able to cover and beat the San Antonio Spurs during this period, but the rest of the time they played bad basketball. They nearly lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers, and it has become clear that they are relying too much on LaMarcus Aldridge. Aldridge has been great, but Portland needs someone else to step up and be a solid second option.