The UFC 134 top fight is a rematch from back in 2006. In that matchup Anderson Silva was clearly the superior striker while Yushin Okami attempted a couple of unsuccessful shots. Eventually Yushin completed a takedown, which was quickly followed by an illegal up kick that ended the fight. 

Since that meeting I think Okami has improved significantly, especially since he began training with Chael Sonnen. You hear about the addition of a fighter to a camp in order to help prepare for an upcoming bout, but the Okami/Sonnen union is different.

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Sonnen has had by far the most success of any fighter in the UFC against Anderson, and that should help him devise a solid game plan. Simply, Sonnen used his wrestling to control Silva and dictate where the fight took place and he should promote a similar strategy here.

On his feet Anderson has 17 career knockouts, and none more impressive than his last against Vitor Belfort.  His stand up is both lethal and unpredictable as he will attack with limitless variations of elbows, punches and kicks. Silva will also have a five and a half inch reach advantage over Okami, further adding to his advantages.

 Conversely, while Silva is creative and flashy, Yushin likes to keep things simple. He will lead with a jab, follow behind it with a hook, and sometimes he mixes in an uppercut.

Silva was suffering from an injury when he fought Sonnen, which could have inhibited his performance. In addition, I also think that Sonnen’s pressure was key to his success as a lot of Anderson’s past opponents stood right in front of Silva, allowing him to dictate the pace of the fight.

If the fight remains standing Silva will most likely emerge victorious. However, Okami has been waiting too long for this opportunity to squander it by not sticking to the game plan that I’m sure Chael has drilled into his head. Okami will need to cut off the cage, close the distance, and bring constant pressure.

Yushin will get more confident with each takedown, so I am calling an upset with Okami grinding out a decision victory over Silva.

The Bet- Anderson Silva vs Yushin Okami

Successfully betting on an underdog always has a nice financial return. If you can correctly bet on an underdog to defeat a fighter on the level of Anderson Silva the payout is even greater.
Looking at a couple different betting sites, Bodog will provide one of the better returns on an Okami win at +425 ($100 bettors win $425).

Back at UFC 117, Sports Interaction had Chael Sonnen at +400 against Anderson, a slightly smaller underdog than Okami. I bet on a Sonnen victory and we all know how that played out. Betting on a significant dog is always a risk because they are the underdog for a reason. In this case, I would advocate diversifying your wagers. Some consideration should be given to betting on the fight outcome.

Okami by submission or knockout will probably have good returns, but Silva has proven incredibly difficult to finish. Silva by knockout is the outcome is most expected, therefore it will have the lowest payout and I just don’t see Silva submitting Okami. So, a decision win for either man will have the highest probability of occurring with regard to the higher paying odds.

Finally, one last option would be to take the round total to go ‘over’. Okami has had a number of decisions, only being stopped once and Silva is infamous for dragging fights out longer than anticipated.  Again the expectation of an early Silva knockout should make the ‘over’ pay out larger. I anticipate the number set at 3.5 rounds at roughly +220. This bet isn’t as lucrative as an Okami win, but it still pays better then 2/1 and is far less risky.

Whatever you decide good luck this weekend and make sure you check out the rest of the UFC 134 predictions available at Doc’s Sports.