This Saturday the UFC returns to Toronto for UFC 140 Jones vs Machida. The main event will feature the reigning light heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones as he attempts to defend his title for a second time. Opposing the champ will be Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida, the last man prior to Jones to win and then successfully defend the light heavyweight title.

Jones is listed as a huge -440 favorite for this fight at 5Dimes Sportsbook while Machida is getting a very nice underdog price of +350.

It wasn’t that long ago that Machida was getting the hype that is now being heaped on the champion. There are a lot of similarities between the two men’s rise to the top of the division.  The most important aspect of their respective success is their ability to avoid damage.

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Machida is a talented striker, whose unique style has given his opponents difficulties. However, the same can be said about Jon Jones. The deciding factor in this bout will be the distance between the two fighters and who is able to control it.
   
Both men are incredibly skilled at maintaining distance, but each has a different method. Jones has the longest reach in the UFC at 84.5”, and we have yet to see an opponent consistently get inside his range. Conversely, Lyoto Machida uses his speed and technique to maintain distance, quickly closing to attack and then retreating. 

Jon Jones will have a 10.5” reach advantage. However, where Rampage Jackson seemed uncomfortable with the distance, Machida has made a career of fighting in this manner. Lyoto will be the more technical striker and he has excellent straight punches with an effective knee to the body and his Karate background allows him to throw kicks with limited wind up, making it difficult for his opponent to react as we saw against Randy Couture.

When Rampage fought Machida he successfully cut off the cage and used the clinch, which made it difficult for Lyoto to maintain distance. Jones’s size, strength and Greco-Roman wrestling background makes him difficult to deal with in close. He can generate a lot of leverage and with a wide variety of takedowns like the single leg he used against Rampage and the flashier lateral drop he likes to employ as part of his arsenal. It’s hard for his opponent to stay vertical when Jones commits to a takedown.

People questioned how Jones would react when Rampage landed a power shot on his chin. Unfortunately, we don’t have that answer yet. Jones made a few mistakes in his last bout, leaving openings that a talented striker like Machida would be able capitalize on.

That being said, I don’t expect Bones to fight Lyoto the same way that he fought Rampage as he will want to limit the amount of striking exchanges. Look for the Champion to use a predominantly wrestling-based approach, cutting off the cage, clinching and eventually taking him to the mat.

The Champion has excellent top control, lethal ground-and-pound, and an improving submission game. I don’t expect Bones to look for the submission, but more likely he will wear Machida down until he feels it is the opportune moment to unleash a barrage of elbows and punches from the top. I’ll take Jon Jones to defeat Lyoto Machida by TKO.

Jon Jones is the significant betting favourite and the return on the champ pays almost nothing so it’s a “do not play” for that reason. Discounting Lyoto Machida’s ability to win this fight is foolish, and a bet on the challenger will have a significant return. Don’t stake your entire bankroll on it, but should he prove to be the kryptonite for Bones Jones it would be nice to make a little cash on it.

Prop bets are again a tough one as both men are capable of ending the fight early. However, at the same time they are each patient strikers that will wait for their opening even if that means pushing the fight into the later rounds. A bet on Jones to win by submission or on points could get you the largest return on the champ, but don’t expect to pay off your mortgage if you do cash in.

Good Luck this weekend and make sure you check out the rest of our UFC betting predictions for this event on our homepage on Friday.