Basic Strategy Teasers: Home and Away Win Rates
by George J Monroy - 11/29/2012
Basic strategy teasers are an increasingly popular bet that utilizes knowledge of NFL key numbers in order to move certain lines past the strongest key numbers of three and seven. Over the last 30 years, NFL games have been decided by exactly three or seven points 25 percent of the time. And being able to move a spread (using a six-point teaser) past those two numbers can provide excellent value to a wager.
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A basic strategy teaser is a wager that involves a 1.5-point to 2.5-point underdog or a 7.5-point to 8.5-point favorite that is then teased either up or down by six points. Favorites are lowered to 1.5-point to 2.5-point lines, and underdogs are pushed higher to 7.5-point to 8.5-point lines. Historically, the wagers have been positive expected value plays. In order to truly get the best of a basic strategy teaser, your win rate has to exceed 73 percent. Let’s take a closer look at these teasers and their specific win rates in order to find out the best way to make a profit at the books.
Basic strategy teasers win rates:
Through Week 13 of the 2012 NFL season there have been 59 qualified basic strategy teaser games. The numbers, of course, will vary depending on which sportsbook’s lines you use. For this study we have used: Bovada, BookMaker, 5Dimes and WagerWeb.
Basic strategy teasers are currently winning at an 86 percent rate with a record of 51-8 over the course of the season. There are four types of basic strategy teasers, home and away favorites whose lines are teased down from 7.5- to 8.5-point lines and home and away underdogs whose lines are teased up from 1.5- to 2.5-point lines. Here is a quick look at the teasers stats through 59 games so far this season.
17-3: 85 percent
2-2: 50 percent
19-2: 90 percent
13-1: 92 percent
Taking a look at the stats, we can see that home underdogs are the most frequent type of basic strategy teaser and are winning at an extraordinary rate of 90 percent. We also see that away favorites are the least frequent type of teaser and are only winning at a 50 percent rate.
Taking a small sample size of only 59 games does not provide the most accurate data, as this season’s win rate is running substantially higher than usual. However, data over the last decade has shown that away favorites are the least frequent type of teaser and are winning at a 64 percent rate.
Historically, home favorites have been the best teaser to wager on, and they have won at a 76 percent rate over the last 12 years. The most frequent type of teaser over that span has been the away underdog, and it has won at a 73 percent rate. Data for these teasers change all the time, depending on where you gather it from, but the one constant is that away favorites are the least successful teaser and actually are negative value bets since their win rate is running far below the 73 percent needed for these teaser to be profitable.
Basic strategy teasers, in general, are considered to be a great blind bet, since they are positive expected value bets. So, while you can just blindly bet every basic strategy teaser game that appears on the schedule and still probably end up in the black, the most prudent idea would be to closely examine those spreads and pick the lines with the most value. After taking a look at the stats, staying away from basic strategy teaser road favorites would probably be a great idea for your win rate and pocket book.
If you are searching for a more in-depth examination of basic strategy teasers dealing with specific NFL games, return to Doc’s Sports for our weekly basic strategy teaser analysis. Remember to bet wisely and may the spread be with you.
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