College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 11/15/2012
Last week was another sensational one for the Ferringo 15, as our teams went 9-2 against the spread to post our fifth straight profitable week overall. That is now six of seven winning weeks overall by simply betting every team on our list, and the F-15 has been the best moneymaker in college football betting this season!
The teams at the top were actually down compared to the rest of the list, which is the opposite of the trend we’ve seen this year. The top six teams went just 2-2 ATS, with two others on bye weeks. But teams No. 1 thru No. 6 are still a stupendous 28-9-1 ATS over the last seven weeks.
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Also, over the past seven weeks the Ferringo 15 teams have gone 59-31-1 ATS. That is a 65.5 percent winning clip for the last two months and these teams have just been eviscerating the books. Let’s see if these profit makers can keep it going.
Here are this week’s Ferringo 15 college football rankings (all records are ATS against the closing line) for what have been the most valuable teams in college football betting so far this year:
1. Utah State (9-0-1) –I know that Utah State-Louisiana Tech isn’t going to make waves, nationally, but this is a huge game this weekend. This one will decide the WAC championship, and these are probably the two best mid-major teams in the country. (Although I’m sure the No. 3 team on this list would have something to say about that.) It speaks volumes that Utah State is an unranked road favorite this week against a Top 20 team. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the series, but Utah State is just 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings. Also, La. Tech is 15-5-1 ATS over the past two seasons and were an F-15 staple last season, so it is not as if they aren’t used to beating numbers as well.
2. Kansas State (8-1-1) –Colin Klein played, Kansas State won and covered – AGAIN – and there is no doubt that the Wildcats should be ranked No. 1 in the country. However, there are still doubters and that means that there is still plenty of value left on the Wildcats. As I have pointed out before, one of the teams in the national title game is also usually one of the best ATS teams in the country. It seems counterintuitive – that a BCS-bound team would be underrated – but if you go back through the last seven or eight years it is true. The Wildcats are nearly two-touchdown favorites on the road this week at Baylor, so it is tough to sell them as underrated. But K-State is on a 17-4 ATS tear over the past two seasons, and as long as they keep cashing tickets they are impossible to bet against.
3. Fresno State (9-1) –The Bulldogs get the week off before their season finale against Air Force next weekend. Fresno laid another beating into Nevada last week, and that is now four straight wins, all by two touchdowns or more, as this team wrestled away the top of the Mountain West from Boise State despite losing to the Broncos straight up.
4. Northern Illinois (8-2-1) –Are you ready for some MAC-tion? This conference has been a treasure trove this year, with Kent, Bowling Green, UNI, Ball State and Toledo combining to go 39-13-1 ATS this season. The Huskies did not cover in their 31-24 win over Toledo Wednesday night. But they did clinch a spot in the MAC title game with the win. They will be massive favorites next weekend against Akron in their season finale, but it will be somewhat of a tricky spot for a team that will be in a letdown/look ahead situation.
5. Northwestern (9-1) – It has been a dream season for Wildcat backers. And they may be undervalued at the window yet again. Northwestern is a seven-point underdog this week on the road against a Michigan State team that has trouble scoring. Northwestern has a better record and has been ranked in the Top 25 more recently. Naturally, 75 percent of the bets coming in on this game are being placed on the Wildcats.
6. San Jose State (8-2) –SJSU is coming off a bye week and have used the extra time to prepare for surging BYU. It was somewhat surprising that the Spartans were a full field goal home underdog this week, especially since BYU has struggled so much on the road this season. San Jose beat the number in this game last year, losing 29-16 in Provo as a two-touchdown underdog. But to win this week they will have to take the game outright.
7. Penn State (7-3) –The Nittany Lions barely missed the cash again last week at Nebraska. They now close the year with two home games against Indiana and Wisconsin. This week the Lions are the largest favorite that they have been all season (-18). They have obviously dominated the series, but since 2004 their margins of victory are just four, five, 27, 11, 17 and six. Indiana is 4-1-1 ATS in those six games. It will be interesting to see if Happy Valley has the same emotion this week that it did early in the season and how that support/lack of support impacts the players.
8. Mississippi (7-3) – This team has some serious work to do over the next two weeks. Ole Miss is just 5-5 right now with games at LSU and then at home against Mississippi State. They need to win at least one of them to become bowl eligible. They lost 52-3 last year to the Tigers, and we’ll see if there is any hangover from the Rebels’ heartbreaking 27-26 loss at home to Vanderbilt last weekend. Mississippi is just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 SEC games, and I’m just not sure if 18 points is enough this week.
9. Oregon State (7-2) – The reports out of Corvallis are that Sean Mannion will start at quarterback this week for the injured Cody Vaz. That adds another layer of distraction to the Beavers this week, who are already in a tricky sandwich game between that trip to Stanford and next week’s Civil War game against Oregon. Fortunately, they are only playing Cal, who is in full-blown lame duck mode under Jeff Tedford. I expect this spread to be right around -14.0 when it is publicly released.
10. Clemson (8-2) –I guess I’m not the only one that forgot about this team. Clemson has simply been wrecking people. And it is really a shame that they can’t meet Florida State for a rematch in the ACC Championship Game (the two teams are in the same division). The Tigers have won seven straight ATS, and since that loss to FSU on Sept. 22 no team has stayed within two touchdowns of the Tigers. They are laying out 17 points this week, and they have to win and hope for some help from Maryland for any shot at an ACC crown. They also have to avoid looking ahead to next week’s date with rival South Carolina.
11. Ball State (9-2) – The Cardinals dominated once-mighty Ohio on Wednesday, winning 52-27 and easily covering a -6.0 spread. Ball State actually lost starting quarterback Keith Wenning to a strained Achilles. However, fifth-year starter Jordan Page was dynamite in relief, leading the Cardinals to 333 yards of offense and a 31-10 second half advantage. The Cardinals close the regular season at woeful Miami, OH on Nov. 23.
12. Cincinnati (6-2) –The Bearcats are favored at home against a Top 25 team this week when they host Rutgers. This game will go a long way to determining who wins the Big East, and this is the biggest game of the season to this point for the Bearcats. Cincinnati has won five of six and covered four of those games against the Scarlet Knights. But the underdog is a bankroll-boosting 8-2 ATS in this series over the last 22 years.
13. Kent State (8-2) – I keep betting against the Golden Flashes – and I keep being wrong! Last week the Flashes outgained just their third opponent this season. But they have not only won eight straight games overall, all but one of those wins have come by 12 points or more. So this team isn’t just winning, it’s blowing teams out. Kent State has covered three straight against Bowling Green and is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. But the Falcons also boast a Top 10 defense (statistically) and will be a stiff test for a KSU team that has just one win over a team with a winning record since September.
14. Florida Atlantic (8-2) –Few things increase a team’s betting value than when they lose a game outright but win a game against the spread. FAU has perfected that this season. I wanted to bump them way up in the F-15 rankings this week, but then they were installed as a favorite against in-state Sun Belt rival Florida International this week. The home team has won five of seven meetings and the favorite is 5-2 ATS in this series, which has been a blowout (decided by 20 or more) four times in seven years. It has never been decided by less than a touchdown.
15. Western Kentucky (7-3) – Reality has kind of caught up to the Hilltoppers. They are just 6-4 on the season and just 3-3 in league play, and their hopes of a Sun Belt crown have been dashed by losing three of their last four games both SU and ATS. WKU has dominated Lafayette the last two years and catches the Cajuns after a spirited loss at Florida last week. Western Kentucky is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games overall (a trend I see reversing) and they are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 road games. They are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 Sun Belt games.
The Ferringo 15 college football power rankings are my profit/power rankings. They are a ranking of the 15 teams I feel currently have the most value in college football betting. It is a not merely a reward for past achievement at the window, but more a total overview of past, present, and future projected achievement against the spread.
Robert Ferringo is a professional handicapper and has posted 23 of 36 profitable months with his combined college and NFL football selections. He is looking forward to building on his stellar football handicapping resume again this week and following up last week’s profit with another winner.You can check him out here.