NBA Betting Trends: Hot and Cold Teams Against the Point Spread
by Aaron Smith - 11/30/2012
The NBA season is a long grind, and teams go through many hot and cold periods throughout the year. Keeping track of the hot teams and cold teams can help you stay ahead of the curve when betting on the NBA. Doc’s Sports will be presenting an NBA Hot and Cold Report this year to help you stay ahead of the game. Please note that statistics in this initial report are from games played between Nov. 15 and Nov. 28.
Top Five “Hot” ATS NBA Teams
Oklahoma City Thunder (6-1 ATS) Trading James Harden right before the season was a controversial decision, but the Thunder are making it work thus far. Kevin Martin fits in nicely with this group. Oklahoma City leads the league in points per game at 105.4 per contest. One thing that you shouldn’t overlook either is that the Thunder shoot free throws at 84.5 percent. Making those free throws is often the difference between a cover and a non-cover late in the game.
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Brooklyn Nets (6-1-1 ATS) Most people expected the Nets to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA, but this team has been even better than expected. Their last two games have been wins over Atlantic Division rivals (Knicks and Celtics). The Nets are 9-3-2 ATS overall this year, including an impressive 5-1-2 ATS record at home in the Barclay’s Center. Joe Johnson has been a great addition to the team, and a healthy Brook Lopez is obviously a major plus for this squad.
Denver Nuggets (5-2 ATS) George Karl’s Nuggets started out slowly, but they seem to be coming together in the past couple weeks. Andre Iguodala gives the team the solid defender on the wing that they have needed for a while. Kenneth Faried has been a beast on the inside so far this year. Denver has been one of the best teams in the league on the boards so far this season.
Memphis Grizzlies (4-2 ATS) The Memphis Grizzlies were on this list two weeks ago, and they are back again this week. Memphis is 10-3 ATS this year, and they are 11-2 overall. You could make a very good argument that Memphis has been the best team in the league in the first month. The oddsmakers will eventually catch up with this team, but they haven’t gotten there just yet.
Indiana Pacers (4-2 ATS) The Pacers were on the other side of this report last time around. Indiana’s win at Staples Center on Sunday against the Lakers was their best victory of the season thus far. The Pacers don’t have as much offensive firepower without Danny Granger in the lineup, but they have been winning with defense. Opponents are shooting just 40.2 percent from the floor, which is the lowest percentage in the league.
Bottom Five “Cold” ATS NBA Teams
Los Angeles Clippers (2-5 ATS) The Clippers started the season 8-2 against the number, but they have failed to cover the number in five straight games. It all started with the team’s 117-111 overtime loss at Oklahoma City on Nov. 17. Chris Paul’s numbers are down in 2012. I expect him to pick it back up, but the team’s recent slide is definitely a cause for concern. The Clippers have an easy schedule coming up in the next week, so we’ll see if they can get back on track.
Chicago Bulls (2-4 ATS) No one expected the Bulls to dominate with Derrick Rose on the sidelines, but not many people thought the Bulls would struggle as much as they have. Chicago is 7-7 overall, and they are only 4-10 ATS this year. The Bulls defense hasn’t been quite as dominant as it was a year ago, and this team has been having a hard time finding any answers on the offensive end.
Milwaukee Bucks (2-4 ATS) The Bucks are at the top of the Central Division right now, but it isn’t because they are playing well. The entire Central Division has struggled in the first month of the season. The Bucks offense hasn’t been as good as it should be. With Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis in the backcourt, this team should be putting up more than 98.4 points per game.
Minnesota Timberwolves (2-4 ATS) Kevin Love is back in the lineup for the Timberwolves, but this team isn’t clicking just yet. Ricky Rubio appears to be only a few weeks away from coming back, and this team should get better in a big way when he is healthy. Minnesota is last in the NBA in three-point shooting at just 27.7 percent. The offense needs to get into a bit of a rhythm for this team to contend.
Portland Blazers (2-4-1 ATS) It hasn’t been a good last two weeks for the Blazers. Portland was beaten by the lowly Pistons on Monday night. They followed up that loss with a loss to the Washington Wizards. It was the Wizards first win of the season. The Blazers have been getting beaten on the glass on a nightly basis. Portland’s next four games are all on the road. Can they right the ship away from the Rose Garden?
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