Betting on and winning at college football can be a very tough task for those who don’t work full time at it. I spend the entire week researching teams and game matchups in order to uncover any edge. I will be here each week to share some of my “tricks of the trade” and also offer other insight when it comes to beating the college football bookies.
--Most folks think that you would make a killing by just betting on the top teams in college football. How wouldn’t you be ahead this year betting on all these top undefeated teams like Alabama, Florida State and LSU? They usually win easy and so they must be covering the point spread, right? Well that’s not usually the case and especially so far this season as you would be an ugly 8-16 overall against the spread this year if you had just bet on the top five ranked teams to cover the spread each week.
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--One thing to look for this time of the year is a team that is coming off a bye last week. As we hit the middle of the season this is a great time of the year for a team to catch a breather and to also get healthy. Teams can also use these two weeks to prepare for their next opponent, which is huge and makes for a better all-around game plan. Bottom line: this is a big positive this time of the year. I like to add in an additional 1.5 to two points on a team’s power rating that is coming off a bye last week. Take 30 seconds before you start to handicap a game and see if a team is coming off a bye. If that is the case, be sure to give them some extra credit in their next game.
-As conference play is now in full force you should expect a little less scoring this time of the year and lean toward playing some more “under” college football picks rather than “overs”. Most of the coaches know all there is too know about their conference foes from years of battling each other head-to-head. Plus, this time of the year teams now have quite a bit of game film on each other to game plan with the fact that everyone has played at least three games this season. Also, now that we are into the fall season, be careful of bad weather conditions having an effect on totals also. It’s not rain but instead the wind that can have huge effects on the passing and kicking games. Always keep a close eye on the weather if you are betting a CFB total, and look for lower-scoring games, especially if gusty winds are being forecast.
-Another key piece of advice to bump your win percentage this time of the year is to focus more on the smaller conferences to gain an edge. Everyone has an idea how much better Alabama is at home against South Carolina, but it’s not easy for the bookmakers to post a line on a Middle Tennessee State vs. Arkansas State game. The Mid-American Conference and the Sun Belt are the two smallest conferences in FBS football these days, and because of that are also the easiest to beat from a college football betting perspective. Spend more time focusing on those two conferences and watch your win percentage increase along the way.
I have a huge college football 6-Unit Game of the Month for October going this Saturday, and it focuses on a game in one of these smaller conferences. After extensive research on this game I feel I have a clear cut edge on the books as they clearly don’t have this contest priced correctly. I nailed my September Game of the Month in CFB and I am winning at over a 60 percent rate this season overall in all my CFB selections, which is as good as it gets in this business. As for the NFL, I am coming off a nice 2-1 winning week on the pro gridiron and have three solid selections this week, including one of those being on “Monday Night Football”. You can get all my football plays for just $99 for the week. I am expecting nothing but winning from here on out as I am locked in with CFB and I always do well with the NFL the deeper into the season we go, including going 22-11 to end last season and an undefeated 4-0 in the NFL playoffs.
Here are a few free picks that I like in CFB that were close but didn’t quite make the cut as one of my official released selections for the coming week:
Take No. 388 Marshall +4 over Tulsa (3:30 p.m. EST): I am a little surprised Marshall isn’t the favorite here at home in this one. They have had one of the most explosive offenses in CFB this season, averaging over 40 points per game. They are led by one of the best players no one has heard about this year in CFB, quarterback Rakeem Cato. They should be looking for some big revenge from last year’s 59-17 loss to this Tulsa team, and I say they get that revenge here in this one winning by a 45-42 score.
Take No. 360 California +2.5 over UCLA (10 p.m. EST): Once again I feel we have the wrong team favored here in this game. UCLA was a good story to start the season, but taking a deeper look at things we now see a team who has played a very easy schedule so far. The same thing can’t be said for Cal this season, as the Bears have battled tough teams nearly every week. No team has probably had a tougher slate their last three weeks than Cal with loses to Arizona State and on the road at USC and Ohio State. Cal hasn’t embarrassed themselves in any of those games and overall played fairly well. They should be completely focused here in this one against a team they lost to last year. Look for California to catch some breaks and win by a 27-24 score.
Take No. 329 South Florida -3.5 over Temple (Noon EST): This is all about class difference here in this contest as USF is far superior than what looks to be a very weak Temple team. South Florida should be fired up for this one after having dropped three straight games. The Bulls even had a better yards-per-play in two of those losses earlier this year. This was a team picked to win the Big East this season, and that will become their top goal now after their bad start. Temple has been a huge disappointment this season in losing back-to-back games to Maryland and Penn State and looking bad in both of those games. This team lost a ton of players from last year and looks to be in clear rebuilding mode this season. Look for this veteran South Florida team, led by their senior quarterback, to show their superiority here and win in a 27-10 rout.
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