The start of another NFL season is right around the corner, so now is the time to be formulating a betting strategy that is designed to provide a profitable return on all your wagering activities from this Sunday’s Hall of Fame Game all the way through Super Bowl XLVII.
One of the most profitable strategies to winning on a consistent basis in any sport is specialization. It is one thing to consider yourself a die-hard fan that lives and dies with their team’s successes and failures, and it is another thing to thoroughly analyze everything and anything about a particular team in order to know when and how to capitalize on the oddsmakers’ line for a particular game. Without professional help, it would be almost impossible to achieve this level of knowledge for all 32 NFL teams, so this season I am going to concentrate all my efforts on one team -- the Philadelphia Eagles.
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The 2012 Plan
Each week, I will present a comprehensive analysis of the Eagles’ upcoming matchup as well as provide a wagering suggestion using Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System, which ranks each play in terms of how many units should be bet. This money management technique is designed to maximize profits while minimizing risk through the use of a 1-to-8 unit rating that is based on a confidence level for that particular game.
By limiting ourselves to just one team and one game, I aim to provide a selection that gives you the best chance to cash in on its recommended investment.
The primary reason I chose Philadelphia is an intimate knowledge of the team that dates back many years. While I actually do consider myself a die-hard fan, I also realize that there is money to be made betting against the Eagles when the situation warrants it, just as there is money to be made when a mismatch exists as a result of a bad line in favor of the team. Sometimes, I will simply decide to pass on a game if no clear advantage exists for either side.
Another reason I chose the Eagles is the influence of the betting public. Philadelphia plays in a high-profile division that includes two matchups each season against the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys. It also has a regular-season schedule that includes a number of nationally-televised games. All this national exposure will enable me to capitalize on the betting public’s reaction to the early-week opening line through the various line movements it may cause.
Always remember, that a spread is not a prediction of how many points a team is expected to win by, it is a unit of measurement that is designed to draw an equal amount of wagers to either side of the contest. The best-case scenario is the ability to go against the betting public when all the pertinent NFL handicapping facts and figures point you in the opposite direction.
Past Betting Trends
When you look back at the recent history of Philadelphia’s game results, you will find that while it has many more straight-up wins than losses, it is just slightly over .500 when it comes to covering against the spread. Going back to the 2007 season, the Eagles are 46-33-1 SU over the five-year span and 41-35-4 ATS. They went 18-20-2 ATS at home and 23-15-2 ATS on the road. When it comes to the total line during the same span of games, 40 games went “over” the total, 37 stayed “under,” and three ended in a “push”.
The Bottom Line
The above stats really do not matter, but they are simply presented to illustrate the importance of specialization when it comes to wagering on the games. If you put too much weight on past results and previous betting trends, they will have a tendency to skew your thinking. By thoroughly dissecting each individual matchup based on a number a variables, you give yourself the best chance at correctly predicting the outcome. Add in an in-depth understanding of a particular team’s strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies and you can really fine-tune your selection and accompanying units wagered.
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