Week 15 NFL Teasers Advice: Best Three for Basic Strategy Teases
by George Monroy - 12/12/2012
Week 15 of the NFL season is here. And as we quickly make our way to the playoffs, now would be the time to truly appreciate how great the NFL season has really been. Not only have we had entertaining games, coupled with great and horrendously bad teams, but sports bettors have had a great season as well (unless, of course, you were on the other end of that Golden Tate touchdown or ridiculous Jim Harbaugh safety call). Basic strategy teasers have gone 55-11 for an 83 percent win rate, and have been a winning proposition for gamblers over the course of the season. There are only a few weeks left to play, but it’s never too late to jump on the basic strategy teaser bandwagon. Here are the three best teasers for Week 15.
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The Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders have a combined record of 5-21 and are 1-11 over their last 12 games. What I am hinting at — if you didn’t already notice — is that both teams are ridiculously bad. The Raiders are on a six-game losing streak, and they have been outscored by 106 points during those games. What we have this week is a matchup between two really bad teams that will probably end up a close game that stays well within the spread.
The Chiefs’ against the spread record has not been as bad as their regular record would indicate, and they are actually 5-8 versus the spread this season. The Raiders, on the other hand, have not covered a game as a favorite all season (0-4 ATS record when playing as the favorite). What this all points to is that the Raiders barely deserve to be a 2.5-point favorite, and expecting them to cover over eight points would be hopeful at best. Taking the Chiefs and the points against a horrendous Raiders team is as solid of teaser that you can find.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys
Original spread: Cowboys +2 (Bookmaker)
Six-point teaser: Cowboys +8
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been through three quarterbacks in the last four weeks, and they have losses to the Cleveland Browns and San Diego Chargers over that span. The Steelers have been out of sorts since their starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger injured his throwing shoulder during their Week 10 “Monday Night Football” matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Steelers are still in the middle of the AFC playoff race, and are leading the chase for the final wild card spot with a 7-6 record. But, unfortunately for the Steelers, they have lost three of their last four games and really seem to be letting the wild card spot slip through their hands.
It’s difficult to imagine the Steelers coming into Dallas and beating the Cowboys at all, let alone by more than the eight points they would be getting on a teaser. Dallas has been on a mini surge lately having won four of their last five games. The Cowboys always play better when they do not have any pressure or expectations placed upon them, and they are 9-5 over the second half of the last two seasons — when they are already a long shot to make the playoffs. Both teams desperately need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Taking Dallas plus the eight points should be more than enough to cover the spread.
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons
Original spread: Falcons +2 (BookMaker)
Six-point teaser: Falcons +8
The Atlanta Falcons just do not get any respect. The 11-2 Falcons are home underdogs going into their matchup with the New York Giants. Sure, it could be said that New York needs the win more than Atlanta does, but with an 11-2 record the Falcons have not locked up home field advantage through out the playoffs. The San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers are still lurking with 9-3 and 9-4 records, respectively. This will be a game that Atlanta wants to win—if only to prove that they are a legitimate playoff contender. Remember, last season the Giants dominated the Falcons during the first round of the playoffs and eliminated the 10-6 team that was supposed to be a contender in the NFC.
Expect this matchup to have a playoff vibe as both teams play like their postseason lives depended on it. The New York Giants have a 3-3 ATS away record and a 4-6 record as the ATS favorite. While this matchup can go either way, the Giants have not been spectacular as an ATS favorite. Expect Atlanta to take this game very seriously and come out looking to prove a point against the defending Super Bowl champs. Getting Atlanta and the eight points should be more than enough to cover the spread.
This week’s basic strategy teasers are all extremely solid wagers. Two of the three teases are home underdogs getting eight or more points, and, with the exception of the Chiefs, they are still in the thick of the playoff race. Home underdog teases have been winning at a 90 percent rate this season, so betting on them provide excellent value based on the math alone. Remember to bet wisely, and may the spread be with you.
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