Welcome back to another week of basic strategy teaser analysis. We have reached the halfway mark of the NFL season, and at this point we should have a solid grasp on what certain teams are doing right and what others are doing wrong. Unfortunately, for us, there are only three games this week that qualify under the basic strategy teaser rules.
Remember that we are only looking use the teaser strategy on games that feature a 7.5-point to 8.5-point favorite or a 1.5-point to 2.5-point underdog. The idea is to cross two key NFL betting numbers in three and seven. By teasing the favorites down and the underdogs up, we can turn expected losses at 2.5 and 7.5 into expected wins.
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Basic strategy teasers have been making a killing this season and are 37-7 on all games that qualify. Let’s take a look at this week’s three basic strategy teaser games and see if there is any value in betting them.
--Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts
Original spread: Colts +2.5 (BookMaker)
Six-point teaser: Colts+8.5
Surprisingly, this weekend’s matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts is huge game with AFC playoff ramifications. The Dolphins are only a game behind the New England Patriots in the AFC East, and with a win against the Colts they would be tied for a share of the division lead heading into the second half of the season.
The Colts, on the other hand, are still firmly in the wild card race, and with the rest of the AFC floundering, a 9-7 or 10-6 record would probably be enough to get in. Both teams have been playing well over the last few weeks, as the Dolphins have won three games in a row and the Colts have won three of their last four. The Colts have also not won or lost a game at home by more than five points. So while this looks like a close game on paper, being able to get 8.5 points on the Colts is a great wager to have.
Expect a close game either way, so the points should be more than enough help Indianapolis cover the spread.
--Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Oakland Raiders
Original spread: Buccaneers +1.5 (BookMaker)
Six-point teaser: Buccaneers +7.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have looked great over the last three weeks as they beat Kansas City, played a close game against New Orleans and then completely dominated Minnesota. The Buccaneers’ 3-4 record is a bit deceiving. Yes, they are a middle-of-the-road team that will probably not make the playoffs, but they have been competitive all season and have not lost a game by more than seven points. Greg Schiano is a coach that will keep his team motivated no matter what their record is.
The Oakland Raiders have also been solid since losing a close game to the Atlanta Falcons three weeks ago. But they have not covered a spread as the favorite all season and are 1-2 against the spread at home. Tampa Bay has all the momentum here and will probably come into this game the most confident they have been all season. Getting 7.5 points on the Buccaneers is a solid wager, as there is a good chance they win the game straight up.
--Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers
Original spread: Chargers -7.5 (BookMaker)
Six-point teaser: Chargers -1.5
The San Diego Chargers have been atrocious the last two weeks, and under normal circumstances betting on them to cover any spread would seem like lunacy. However, lucky for us, this week they are playing the Kansas City Chiefs. I am sure that by now everyone knows all the stats on the Chiefs: they are 1-6, have not held a lead during regulation all season, and are widely considered the worst team in the NFL.
The Chargers have been just as incompetent as the Chiefs over the last few weeks, but teasing them down to a 1.5-point favorite is probably worth the risk, especially because of their recent struggles. The spotlight is clearly on San Diego and Norv Turner, and a loss this week will only put more pressure on the Chargers management to fire him. Expect San Diego to come into this game fully prepared and ready to get a statement win. They might not cover the original spread, but it’s difficult to imagine them losing to the Chiefs at home.
Basic strategy teasers have been winning at an 84 percent rate, and even though anything can happen in sports betting, these have been excellent wagers to make. They will probably not continue to win at such a high rate, but basic strategy teasers have been proven to be positive expected value bets, so all you have to do is shop around and try and get the best price on your wagers. Remember to bet wisely and may the spread be with you.
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