Weekly CFB Mid-Major Betting Report: Ohio Bobcats Week 11
by Aaron Smith - 11/6/2012
Ohio bounced back nicely from their only loss of the season. The Bobcats took care of business last Thursday against Eastern Michigan. Ohio will be in action during the middle of the week again this week. They’ll host Bowling Green on Wednesday night in an important matchup of two top teams in the MAC. All year long, the mid-major betting report is focusing on the Ohio Bobcats. I’m following players on Twitter, reading reports from Bobcats beat writers, and going through all the team’s press conferences. The goal is to become an expert on this Ohio Bobcats team. This report is designed to show how specialization is a profitable betting strategy.
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Last year’s mid-major betting report, which followed the Rice Owls, made $100-per-unit bettors $1,280 in profit based on a record of 7-2-1. At the end of each article this season, I will make a selection for that week’s Ohio Bobcats game. Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System will be used for every pick, which should help readers follow along and track the results of these weekly college football picks.
The first half of last week’s contest against Eastern Michigan was a tight game. Ohio led by only three points until just before half. An important 19-yard touchdown pass from Tyler Tettleton to Donte Foster gave the team a 24-14 halftime lead. Ohio’s defense pitched a shutout in the second half, and the Bobcats went on to win, 45-14. My two-unit selection last week was on Ohio -16, and that one was a winner.
Ohio dominated Eastern Michigan on the ground to run up a comfortable victory. The Bobcats ran for 304 yards. Eastern Michigan only had 305 yards of total offense, and the Eagles quarterback completed only nine passes. It was the best the Bobcats defense has looked in quite some time. Foster has been dinged up quite a bit this year, and his huge seven-reception game was a major boost for the Ohio offense last week.
Notes of Interest
--Wednesday night’s game will be a “Bobcat Blackout” as Ohio will wear its black helmet, black jersey, and black pants. There is a little extra buzz around this Wednesday night’s game because it is Senior Night for the Bobcats, and many of the players have wanted to wear the all black uniforms for quite some time. Peden Stadium will be rocking this week. In his press conference this week, Coach Solich spoke about how Peden Stadium has given the Bobcats a terrific home-field advantage of late.
--This will be the Bobcats third game in 12 days. Bowling Green is coming off a bye week. Coach Solich said the team is trying to just focus on the task at hand, rather than worrying about the lack of time between games. He said, “Our guys have been focused this week. They played probably their best ballgame of the year last week. We got some momentum going; I know they want to keep the momentum going.” It seems like Solich is trying to look at the positive side of playing quickly again since the team has some positive momentum.
--The Bowling Green Falcons lead the MAC in almost all major defensive categories. The Falcons are surrendering only 15.2 points per game this year, which is ninth best in the entire nation. Bowling Green hasn’t allowed more than 12 points in any of their last five games. Defensive tackle Chris Jones has 11.5 sacks and 16 tackles for a loss this season.
--Free safety Gerald Moore said this week that Ohio is preparing for lots of unique offensive looks from the Bowling Green offense. The Falcons coach, Dave Clawson, is well-known for his trick plays. Ohio’s defense will have to stay awake at all times in this one.
--Bowling Green is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Ohio is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.
--The “under” is 5-0 in the Falcons last 5 road games.
--Bowling Green is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against Ohio.
Bowling Green vs. Ohio College Football Odds
According to Bookmaker, Ohio opened as a 3.5 point favorite in this one. Early money came in on the Falcons and pushed the line down to the critical number of three. The posted total was set at 49 points, and there hasn’t been any movement.
Bowling Green vs. Ohio College Football Picks
Ohio played a very good game last week, but that was against an inferior opponent. Bowling Green has been the most impressive team in the MAC so far this season, so the Bobcats will have to put together a complete game to win this one. The Falcons defense has been a lot better than Ohio’s so far this season, but the Bobcats are starting to get healthier on the defensive side of the ball. The best sign from last week’s game for Ohio was their improved play on the defensive end.
Look for both teams to struggle to put together long drives in this one. The number is set awfully low, but I do believe this will be a low-scoring game. My selection for this week is a one-unit play on under 49 points. The Bobcats have another mid-week game next week, so stay tuned for another mid-major betting report early next week.
Pick: #103- Take Under 49 for 1 Unit (Wednesday, 8:00 pm. EST on ESPN2)
Season Results: 4 Wins 4 Losses= -0.6 Units ($60 Loss)
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