Weekly CFB Mid-Major Betting Report: Ohio Bobcats Week 13
by Aaron Smith - 11/21/2012
The Ohio Bobcats had very lofty goals for this season. After a 7-0 start they were on track to reach those expectations. However, the Bobcats have lost three of their last four games. After last week’s loss to Ball State, Ohio knows they won’t be playing for a MAC Championship this season. The Bobcats play another tough conference foe this Friday on the road at Kent State.
All year long, the mid-major betting report is focusing on the Ohio Bobcats. I’m following players and staff on Twitter, reading reports from team beat writers, and going through all the team’s press conferences. The goal is to become an expert on this Ohio Bobcats team. This report is designed to show how specialization is a profitable betting strategy.
Last year’s mid-major betting report, which followed the Rice Owls, made $100-per-unit bettors $1,280 in profit based on a record of 7-2-1. At the end of each article this season, I will make a selection for that week’s Ohio Bobcats contest. Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System will be used for every pick, which should help readers follow along and track the results of these weekly college football picks.
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Until last week, the Bobcats had been very competitive in their losses this year. Last week, Ball State absolutely dominated Ohio in every facet of the game. Ohio actually led 24-21 with 12:55 left in the third quarter, but it all fell apart the rest of the way. Ball State finished the game on a 31-3 scoring run. It looked as if the Bobcats ran out of steam. It may well be that the team’s busy schedule finally caught up to them. Ohio played four games in the span of 19 days ending with last week’s game at Ball State.
Ball State’s offensive line totally dominated Ohio’s defensive front. The Cardinals ran the ball 39 times for 357 yards. In all, Ball State rolled up 588 yards of offense against the Bobcats. Ohio moved the ball well too, but they didn’t take advantage of their opportunities as well as the Cardinals. Ohio settled for two field goals, and the Bobcats also turned it over once. My one-unit selection of Ohio Bobcats +5 was a loser last week.
Notes of Interest
-Ohio will take on Kent State Friday morning at 11 a.m. Eastern. This is an interesting scheduling spot for the Bobcats. They do get slightly more than a week to rest since their last game, but they also play the morning after Thanksgiving. This matchup will be televised nationally on ESPNU.
--The Bobcats got a little extra rest, and the coaching staff took it easier than normal on the team after their busy schedule of late. Coach Solich said in this week’s press conference, “We gave them virtually three days off from practicing. We’re hoping the rest will do us good and we’ll have the energy to play four quarters. It’s going to have to be that way because Kent is a very, very good football team.”
--On Twitter, a lot of the buzz with Bobcats fans this week was regarding the team’s chances at earning a bowl berth. Ohio is searching for a fourth straight bowl game appearance. Ohio won a bowl game last year for the first time in the program’s history. The consensus of beat writers and analysts in the MAC seems to be that Ohio will definitely get a bowl berth if they win this week, but they’ll be sweating bullets if they lose this week.
--Ohio’s defensive line, which was a strength at the beginning of the season, has been decimated by injuries. Carl Jones, Neal Hunyh, and Tremayne Scott have all missed the team’s practices this week. At least two of the three will miss this Friday’s game. These guys were the anchors of this defense, but they have been dinged up for the past few weeks.
--Ohio is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
--Kent State is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
--The “over” is 5-1 in Kent State’s last six home games.
--The “under” is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams.
Ohio vs. Kent State College Football Odds
Bookmaker opened with Kent State as a 10-point favorite in this one. Money has slowly come in on the Bobcats, and Kent State is now set at -9 in this contest. The posted total opened at 60 points, and it hasn’t moved at all.
Ohio vs. Kent State College Football Picks
With last week’s win against Bowling Green, the Kent State Golden Flashes locked up the MAC East title. Kent State is 10-1 on the year and 7-0 inside the MAC. Ohio will definitely have their work cut out for them in this game. The injury issues seem to have finally caught up to the Bobcats. Dri Archer may be the best running back in the MAC, and I expect Ohio to struggle to slow him down in this one. Darrell Hazell has done a tremendous job with Kent State, and they have been extremely impressive over the last few weeks. With road wins at Bowling Green, Rutgers, and Miami (Ohio) they have proven they are for real.
I have little doubt that the Bobcats will fight hard in this one, but I believe Kent State will probably be too much here. As evidenced by the betting trends above, the Golden Flashes have been a covering machine of late. I don’t think Ohio’s defense will be able to get off the field in this one. My selection here is on Kent State -9 for a two-unit play.
Pick: #128- Take Kent State -9 for 2 Units (Friday, 11 a.m. EST on ESPNU)
Season Results: 5 Wins 5 Losses= -0.7 Units ($70 Loss)
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