2013 NFL Worst Team Record Odds and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 9/6/2013
Anyone can bet on which team will win the Super Bowl. It's why Survivor Pools are so popular -- you predict which team will win each week. You rarely see the opposite angle, and that's why I love Sportsbook.ag's prop on which NFL team will finish the 2013 season with the worst record. Frankly, if you are going to stink, this is the year to do it (much like in the NBA Draft with a loaded 2014 class). It appears there are at least two franchise players who will be in next May's NFL Draft (remember, it was moved back a few weeks in 2014): South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. It will be fascinating to see a team pick between the two of them. In my opinion, you always take a potentially great quarterback over a great defender. Especially in today's NFL.
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Here's a look at all the prop options the book has posted.
Oakland Raiders (+200): On the bright side, the Raiders have the fourth-easiest schedule in the NFL with an opponents' 2012 winning percentage of .469. Obviously that's helped by the fact the AFC West rival Chiefs were awful last year and that the Chargers struggled as well. I expect both to be better in 2013, and the Raiders are so desperate at quarterback they are using Terrelle Pryor in Week 1. I can see perhaps only two games where the Raiders might be favored this year: Week 2 vs. Jacksonville and Week 12 against Tennessee. Maybe they will beat Denver in Week 17 only because the Broncos have nothing to play for then -- if they look as good as they did Thursday, they might not.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+400): I am fairly certain the Jaguars won't be favored once this year as they aren't even on Sunday at home against fellow two-win team Kansas City. That Week 2 game against Oakland is must-see TV for the upper hand at the No. 1 overall pick. Still, I think the Jags have more talent than Oakland does.
New York Jets (+700): This might be the best value on the board, although I think because it's a New York team that people are making the Jets out to be worse than they really are. Will the offense stink? I don't think there's much question. However, I think now that Rex Ryan is hands on again with the defense that New York should be able to win six games. Would the Jets take Bridgewater even though they just took Geno Smith?
Buffalo Bills (+800): There's way too much talent on this team to finish with the worst record, but look out if E.J. Manuel goes down for a lengthy period. It might be worth throwing a few dollars here just in case the Bills have to play Jeff Tuel all season.
Arizona Cardinals (+1000): If Carson Palmer stays healthy, I believe the Cards can sniff .500. But if he goes down, this team's season is in the toilet. And you could easily see Arizona going 0-6 in the very tough NFC West alone.
Tennessee Titans (+1200): The Titans are the worst kind of team in that they won't get bad enough to land a top pick but not good enough to make the playoffs. The Titans should be assured at least two wins against the Jaguars alone.
Cleveland Browns (+1500): Most Browns fans were not big fans of the hiring of Rob Chudzinski as the head coach, and you can't blame them since you heard rumors of Jon Gruden or Nick Saban. Cleveland's got some good pieces in place, though, with Trent Richardson, Josh Gordon and a strong offensive line.
San Diego Chargers (+2500): I still think the Bolts have talent and that Mike McCoy will turn Philip Rivers around.
Minnesota Vikings (+2500): This would be the longest shot on which I would throw some money. Percy Harvin is already gone, so just imagine if Adrian Peterson goes down. If that were to happen early, this is a three-win team. The Vikings could go 0-6 in the deep NFC North.
Philadelphia Eagles (+2800): I happen to think Chip Kelly's offense will work in the NFL, and the Iggles still have a ton of skill position talent even with the loss of Jeremy Maclin.
Kansas City Chiefs (+3000): I not only expect the Chiefs to at least triple last year's wins total but also compete for a wild-card spot if things break right. They are the big sleeper in the AFC.
St. Louis Rams (+4000): I'd love to see the Rams get the top pick because I'd want to see if they decide to give up on former No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford for Bridgewater. Bradford hasn't looked like a franchise QB since a good rookie year. The Rams should have taken RG3 when they had the chance.
Miami Dolphins (+4000): They could get four wins alone against the Jets and Bills, and that's too many to finish with the worst record in the league.
Carolina Panthers (+4000): I think this is a playoff-caliber team unless Cam Newton goes down in Week 1 against Seattle.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4000): Not a big Josh Freeman fan, but the defense should be very good, and Doug Martin is a stud.
Indianapolis Colts (+7000): They aren't as good yet as last year's record might indicate, but if Andrew Luck goes down ....
Detroit Lions (+7000): Only if Matthew Stafford gets hurt.
Any other team (+1500): I tried to find a team worth betting on here but really couldn't. Pittsburgh would be in trouble without Ben Roethlisberger, but its defense will win games by itself. Ditto with Chicago and Jay Cutler.
I would take Jacksonville only because it loses in Week 2 at Oakland. I'm not sure what the site's rules are if there's a tie for the worst record.
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