Welcome to Doc's Sports Service Sportsbook Banner
spacer  
spacer spacer
Welcome to Doc's Sports Service spacer
Welcome to Doc's Sports Service Welcome to Doc's Sports Service
Welcome to Doc's Sports Service
Click Here to Purchase Doc's Picks
Baseball Picks   |   Football Picks   |   Hockey picks
Kentucky Derby Picks   |   NBA Picks
spacer



Live Lines and Odds NFL Odds
spacer
NBA Odds
spacer
College
   Basketball Odds

spacer
MLB Odds
spacer
NHL Odds
spacer
WNBA Odds
spacer
CFL Odds
spacer
Boxing Odds
spacer
Golf Odds
spacer
Sports Odds
spacer

Free Picks by Sport Free NFL Picks
spacer
Free College Football Picks
spacer
Free NBA Picks
spacer
Free College Basketball Picks
spacer
Free MLB Picks
spacer
Free NHL Picks
spacer
All Free Picks
spacer

Handicapping Matchup Reports NFL
spacer
NCAA Football
spacer
NBA
spacer
NCAA Basketball
spacer
MLB
spacer
NHL
spacer

Scores NFL
spacer
NCAA Football
spacer
NBA
spacer
NCAA Basketball
spacer
MLB
spacer
NHL
spacer

Schedules MLB Schedule
spacer
NBA Schedule
spacer
NHL Schedule
spacer

Upcomming Event Coverage MLB Futures Odds
spacer
2014 Kentucky Derby Form
spacer




Sportsbook Banner
spacer
spacer
Home
spacer
View Picks
spacer
Why Doc's Sports?
spacer
Our Betting System
spacer
Sports Betting Strategy
spacer
Message from the GM
spacer
Our Commitment
spacer
Customer Comments
spacer
Free Picks
spacer
Contact Doc's
spacer

The Advisory Board
Our Commitment
spacer
Doc's Sports
spacer
Robert Ferringo
spacer
Allen Eastman
spacer
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
spacer
Indian Cowboy
spacer
Jason Sharpe
spacer
Strike Point Sports
spacer
Chad Matthews
spacer

Betting Systems
11th Hour Sports
spacer
The Prop Machine
spacer

Recomended Sportsbooks Bovada Sportsbook
spacer
5Dimes Sportsbook
spacer
BookMaker
spacer
Sportsbook
spacer
Carbon Sports
spacer
WagerWeb
spacer
BetOnline Sportsbook
spacer
GT Bets
spacer
TopBet
spacer
SportsBettingOnline.ag
spacer
Sportsbook Bonus
spacer

Handicapping Resources
Mobile Website Directions
spacer
2014 NFL Season Win Totals Predictions
spacer
Sports Betting Money Managment
spacer
Handicapping FAQ
spacer
Sports Betting 101
spacer
Sports Betting Tips
spacer
Parlay Calculator
spacer
Sports Betting Systems
spacer
Parlay Cards
spacer
Gambling Terms
spacer
2014 Archives
spacer
2013 Archives
spacer
2012 Archives
spacer
2011 Archives
spacer
2010 Archives
spacer
Doc's Affiliate Program
spacer
Doc's Writer Bios
spacer
Doc's rss feedDoc's RSS feed



spacer
spacer

Super Bowl Props Predictions: Colin Kaepernick
by - 1/24/2013

Share |
Quarterback (7) Colin Kaepernick of the San Francisco 49ers

No rookie quarterback has ever led his team to a Super Bowl, much less win one. But in just about every aspect, San Francisco second-year player Colin Kaepernick is a rookie.

The former Nevada dual-threat star, who set numerous NCAA records with the Wolf Pack, was considered somewhat of a reach when the 49ers took him in the second round of the 2011 draft. Yeah, Kaepernick could run as well as any college quarterback ever, but Nevada ran a gimmicky pistol offense – now en vogue in the NFL -- and Kaepernick’s passing accuracy was much in question (not any more).

Free $60 in Member Super Bowl Picks No Obligation Click Here

The former Cubs draft pick got into three games and attempted five total passes in mop-up duty in the 2011 season behind former No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith, who had a career year in leading the Niners to the NFC title game. San Francisco seemed set at the position with Smith, whose career had been rescued by new head coach Jim Harbaugh. All that changed when Smith went down with a concussion in a Nov. 11 game this season against the Rams. Kaepernick was good in relief of Wally Pipp – err, Smith – and started the following week on a Monday night against the Bears.

A legend was born.

Kaepernick torched the NFL’s top defense at the time and hasn’t looked back,  making Harbaugh look like a genius for sticking with his inexperienced signal-caller even when Smith – who would have finished third in the NFL with his 104.1 rating – was healthy. Yes, the Harbaugh brothers and the finale of Ray Lewis’ career are the two biggest storylines for Super Bowl XLVII between San Francisco and Baltimore, but Kaepernick is a close third. This will be just his 10th career start, fewer than 2012 rookies Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson.

Kaepernick will be the sixth quarterback to start a Super Bowl after not starting any of his team's first five games of the same season. The last was Trent Dilfer in 2000, and he led the Ravens to their only Super Bowl, a win over the New York Giants. Of the previous five backups to start the Super Bowl, the only one to lose was Vince Ferragamo for the 1979 Rams.

Let’s take a look at some Kaepernick Super Bowl props from Bovada and my predictions.

He is the 7/4 MVP favorite. If you are wondering, one of those previous four backups to win the Super Bowl also took the MVP award: the Raiders’ Jim Plunkett in XV. San Francisco is 5-0 all-time in Super Bowls, and the Niners’ QB was the game MVP in four of them – not to say Kaepernick is Joe Montana or Steve Young. But if you think the Niners are going to win, it’s hard not to take Kaepernick. I personally would go elsewhere.

Kaepernick is 8/1 to score the first touchdown of the game and 4/1 to score San Francisco’s first touchdown (second-favorite behind Frank Gore). Realize that a passing touchdown doesn’t count. Kaepernick didn’t score last week against Atlanta, which geared up to stop him from running, but had rushing two touchdowns against Green Bay, including the Niners’ first. I don’t like him on either of these props as I believe it’s a passing score.

So far this postseason Kaepernick is 33-of-52 for 496 yards passing with three scores and one interception. He has rushed 18 times for 183 yards and two scores; Kaepernick set an NFL rushing record for QBs against the Packers but had just one designed run last week against the Falcons. The book lists his totals at 17.5 completions (both -115), 27.5 attempts (both -115), 232.5 passing yards (both -115), 1.5 touchdown passes (“under” -140 favorite) and .5 interceptions (“over” -140 favorite). On the total TDs prop, “one” is the +180 favorite with “four” or more the +1000 long shot. On the total interceptions prop, “none” is the +110 favorite with “four or more” a +1500 long shot. If you are wondering, the Super Bowl record for picks is five by the Raiders’ Rich Gannon in XXXVII against Tampa Bay.

There is no previous game against Baltimore to project for Kaepernick considering he didn’t take the field in last season’s Thanksgiving night game between the Niners and Ravens in Baltimore. The Ravens’ defense has faced three of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in these playoffs in Luck, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Those three have combined to throw 898 yards, four touchdowns and five interceptions. I think it’s fair to say those three are all better pure passers than Kaepernick, but that the 49ers have a better running game than the Colts, Broncos and Patriots. Thus, that could make Kaepernick more dangerous, and he clearly is the best running QB the Ravens have seen in the playoffs.

I see Kaepernick going 18-for-27 for 248 yards with one touchdown and one interception. That’s close to what a similar player, Griffin III, did against Baltimore on Dec. 9. The book also lists the QB at 7.5 rushing attempts for 50.5 yards. I love the unders there – the Ravens will mimic what the Falcons did, which worked for a half. Plus, Baltimore has a better pass rush, which will subtract from Kaepernick’s rushing total. But on value, I would take Kaepernick to get a rushing touchdown at +120 compared to -150 for no. The Niners will certainly run the read option at least a few times near the goal line, and Kaepernick will keep it once.

I always love historical comparisons, and Kaepernick is listed against Steve Young – the former Niner whom Kaepernick is most compared to – in San Francisco’s last Super Bowl. Young was named SB XXIX MVP when the 49ers crushed San Diego 49-26 in Miami. The Hall of Famer finished 24-of-36 passing for 325 yards and a Super Bowl-record six touchdowns with no interceptions. Young also rushed five times for 49 yards. Kaepernick is given +89.5 passing yards, “pick’em” on the rushing yards and pick’em on the longest rush of the game, with Young’s at 21. At my 248 yardage total projection, I would have to recommend Kaepernick on the passing yards. But I would take Young on the latter two.

Look for a Kaepernick-Joe Flacco comparison glance, among others, in Friday’s Flacco props story here at Doc’s Sports.

Doc’s Sports is offering $60 worth of member’s picks absolutely free – no obligation, no sales people – you don’t even have to enter credit card information. You can use this $60 credit any way you please for any handicapper and any sport on Doc’s Sports Advisory Board list of expert sports handicappers. Click here for more details and take advantage of this free $60 picks credit today.

Read more articles by

Share |

Most Recent Super Bowl Betting Articles