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Article Archives 2













2009-10 ACC Basketball Predictions
by Robert Ferringo - 11/2/2009

Tyler Zeller (44) of North Carolina.

Size matters.

But in the ACC this year we're going to find out if the "little guys" are good enough to keep this league competing for national championships.

The ACC has one of the stranger setups that I can remember seeing in a BCS league recently. When you look around this league there is seemingly an NBA-ready post player on just about every roster. However, of all of the talent that has moved on after last year the area that was decimated with the collective backcourt of this conference. Ty Lawson, Ty Rice, Toney Douglas, K.C. Rivers, Jeff Teague, Gerald Henderson, Jack McClinton, Lewis Clinch, and Wayne Ellington were all studs and are all playing professional basketball at the moment (most in the NBA). But they are also all gone. And their departures have left an enormous void when it comes to quality ball handlers in the ACC.

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Again, losing talent happens in every league. But it is just bizarre that seemingly every team in one league would lose so much talent at exactly the same position (guard) at exactly the same time.

So it's quite simple: whichever team can get the best play out of its backcourt the quickest is going to have the inside track at taking down the ACC title.

Here are my 2009-10 ACC Basketball Predictions to help you with your college basketball picks:

The Favorite: North Carolina

When trying to calculate which team I think has the best chance to win the national title each year I ask myself one simple question: which team has the most NBA players on it. Last year, it was obviously Carolina so they were the simple choice to cut down the nets. Well, this year Carolina might still have the most pro talent in the country but I actually don't think that they can win the national title. Not even close, really. This team is absolutely enormous. I mean, ENORMOUS. They have five guys - John Henson, Ed Davis, David and Travis Wear, and Tyler Zeller - that are 6-10 or bigger and would start on every single other team in D-I. That is the most impressive frontcourt in the country, naturally. However, March is about guard play. And UNC is woefully lacking in that arena. This team will be able to overwhelm most foes with their sheer size. However, as the season wears on and they come up against teams with better backcourts, teams that can generate full court pressure, and/or teams that can match up with a couple strong big men of their own then I think UNC is in trouble. Perhaps no first-year starter in the country has more pressure on him than UNC point guard Larry Drew. This is a very strong team but it won't be back-to-back for the Heels because of their shoddy perimeter play.

The Challenger: Duke

As has been the case for the last several seasons, Duke is a challenger to the Tar Heels in name only. They do have one thing in common with the Tar Heels this season: they are woefully undermanned in the backcourt. The Blue Devils have just three guards - Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer and freshman Andre Dawkins - on the entire roster. That's it. The rest of the squad is big men, and weak big men at that. That also means that Duke will be making the transition from the four-out "spread" attack that they have used for the last couple seasons to a more traditional low-post offense. There is still talent here. But, as always, this team is going to be overrated by the books. And because they are still not as athletic as top-tier opponents and because they are awkward in the backcourt I think their ceiling is again a two-and-done March.

The Dark Horse: Maryland

I definitely like this team and I think that they are a bit deceptive. Unlike Duke and UNC, Maryland is all about guard play. Veteran guards Greivis Vasquez and Eric Hayes lead this perimeter-oriented team and this Terps group plays with a chip on its shoulder. Halfway through last season it looked as if this group would miss the NCAA Tournament and the sharks were (for some reason) starting to circle Gary Williams. But then it all clicked for the Terps and they not only made The Dance they absolutely hammered Cal in the first round. This group will miss scrappy Dave Neal, but they have added some capable freshmen in the post. If they get better play near the basket they can rely on the league's best set of guards to get them back dancing. This team doesn't have the talent to be considered a very strong favorite play; they just aren't going to blow people away. But they are a feisty club and Vasquez is as good of a closer as you'll find at this level.

The X-Factor: Florida State

When I first set this story up I actually had Wake Forest as "The X-Factor" and Florida State as "The Disappointment". And I think you could still make the case either way. I don't think that Florida State will be terrible this year. But I do think that they will have a hard time building on last year's successful campaign. FSU was, offensively anyway, a one-man gang last season. Toney Douglas is in the NBA and key forward Uche Echefu has moved on as well. They leave a huge scoring void for a club that made its name on defense and only had one double-digit scorer. Freshman Michael Snaer will have a lot of pressure to fill that vacuum and stabilize the backcourt. That's a lot to ask a newbie. I don't see the top-end talent on this team and their strength (size, rebounding, defense) just plays into the strength of the better teams in this league. They will still be good but lack of scoring will hurt their earning potential.

The Surprise Team: Boston College

I always look to fade teams that are making the transition from what I refer to as "One-Man Gangs" to being a full "team". Last year Tyrese Rice just did it all for this club. In fact, for the past two seasons Rice has been the primary ball handler-shooter-scorer-leader on this club. How will they react without him? I think they will be fine. Boston College has been one of the six or seven most underrated college basketball programs in the country over the last decade. All Al Skinner does is win and he has a veteran team to try to get it done this season. In a league that is frontcourt-heavy, Boston College is really the only team that has its strength on the wings. They have three guys that are around 6-7, 6-8 that kind of do it all. I am a big fan of Joe Trapani and if new point guard Biko Paris can accelerate his game then don't be surprised if this club is around No. 4 in the league come March. But if Josh Southern and the backup bigs can't hold up against the incredible frontcourts in this league then they could fade fast.

The ATS Machine: Virginia

Virginia is a really interesting team. And in a top-heavy league full of more "name" schools I think that the Cavaliers could sneak in some backdoors. They brought back four starters from a team that, quite frankly, was pathetic. They couldn't shot, couldn't defend, and couldn't win. However, things are a bit more up-in-the-air in the ACC this season and I think the incremental gains UVA will make on the court could pay dividends at the betting window. They have a new coach, Tony Bennett, from Washington State, and we will see if Bennett is really a good coach or if he just was the beneficiary of being handed a great team at Wazzou. Virginia has solid sophomore Sylvan Landesberg and some other nice, experienced pieces. And unlike the rest of the league this club is guard-heavy so they may be boom or bust.

The Disappointment: Wake Forest

Wake Forest lost a ton to the draft and will miss the leadership of Jeff Teague. This club had a cup of coffee at No. 1 in the country last year so the foundation is in place. Their strength is in the frontcourt and they have some capable veterans like point Ish Smith, off guard L.D. Williams, and center Chris McFarland. However, other than Al-Farouq Aminu there is no top-end talent on this club and, overall, they can't shoot to save their lives. This team is all interior. I still can't get the visions of their terrible end of the season out of my mind. And it wasn't just their blowout loss to Cleveland State in the NCAA Tourney. I'm not sure what this team has in store for this year. But I do know that their bigs match up well with any in this league and that they won't roll over this season. But I don't think that they have any value and I don't think they will be much of a player.

The Rest:

Georgia Tech - Georgia Tech is so underrated that they may be overrated. Everyone and their sister have Tech as their ACC Sleeper this year. Everyone. And they are currently in the Top 25 in both polls. Huh? I know they have some talent but they have been one of the worst road teams in the country over the last several years and they have a lot of ground to make up after a 2-14 season in the ACC last year. I mean, they finished behind N.C. State and Virginia for crying out loud! Yes, they lost a lot of close games and I think that this group will be much improved in a watered-down and vulnerable league. And yes, they added Derrick Favors, one of the top five or six freshmen in the country. But they lost forward Alade Aminu to the NBA, so isn't adding Favors kind of a lateral move? They still haven't shored up the backcourt and starting point guard Mo Miller's status up in the air because of concussions suffered in a September car accident. And if they don't get better backcourt play I think they can still be better this season but not nearly as strong as all of the preseason love that they are getting right now.

Clemson - The Tigers are a system team and they have improved their record in each of the past five years. With their typical flimsy non-conference schedule I think they'll manage to earn their fourth straight 20-win season. But unlike the past two seasons this team is not an Elite Eight or Final Four contender. Trevor Booker is a stud and an All-American. But it will be interesting to see what the surprise loss of Terrence Oglesby does to the backcourt. Clemson has some nice young pieces and has some athletic frontcourt players ready to step in and operate their pressing, trapping style. This is still a good team but nothing to get that excited about.

Virginia Tech - Seth Greenberg is an outstanding coach that is doing a great job with this program. And he welcomes back one of the best one-two punches in the league with guard Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen. They have some experienced complimentary pieces but it's going to be all about how those pieces step up and perform. Tech has been sneaky-good at the window the last several years and I look for that to continue. But they did fail to win 20 games last year with leading scorer and go-to guy A.D. Vassallo. How much better can we expect them to be without him?

N.C. State - This team sucks. Sidney Lowe has cleared out all of the players from the old regime, but there's no continuity and I don't see a kind of clear path toward prominence here. This club is young, unproven, and, frankly, not very good at all. They have three point guards and none of them are any good. And that's the perfect microcosm for what's wrong here: they haven't had a point guard for three years now. What is Lowe waiting for?

Miami - The Hurricanes were one of the biggest disappointments in the country last year. And the biggest problem was that any guard not named "McClinton" played like he belonged in the OVC and not the ACC. Now that very backcourt that was an anchor around their neck last year is supposed to be the strength of the team this year? I doubt it. This group has six new players and will be relying on them way too much. Their best player is forward Dwayne Collins. But as you know by now, NBA-level power forwards are a dime a dozen in this league. I don't see a lot working in their favor.

After you finish this NCAA basketball article check out our NCAA College Basketball Schedule page. Doc's Sports college basketball handicapping page is and excellent NCAA basketball resource as well. If you plan on betting college basketball you'll also want to read our Basketball Lines page. Since 1971 Doc's Sports has been recognized as a leader and trusted name in sports handicapping information.

Robert Ferringo is a professional handicapper and he has gained nearly +300 Units over the past three college basketball seasons. You can purchase his college basketball picks here.