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Article Archives 2













2009-10 Big 12 Basketball Predictions
by Robert Ferringo - 11/10/2009

University of Texas guard/forward Damion James.

Here are my 2009-10 Big 12 Basketball Predictions to help you with your college basketball picks:

The Favorite: Kansas

There isn't a whole lot that I can say about the Jayhawks that you shouldn't already know. I felt like they were one of the biggest overachievers in the nation last year after losing their entire starting five from the 2007-08 National Championship team. But Bill Self had a stacked team that ran about nine-deep and the Jayhawks finished oh-so-close to back-to-back Final Four trips. There shouldn't be anything to stop them this year. That is, if they can stay out of trouble off the court. There is just buckets of talent on this roster. But there is almost an equal amount of negative karma surrounding the program. From fights with the football team to potential grumbling over playing time and redshirts to the suspension of starting shooting guard Brady Morningstar, it has been a curious offseason in Lawrence. But once the rubber hits the wood this group will be ready to roll.

The Challenger: Texas

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You wanted point guards, they got point guards. Last year's Texas squad had as strong of a 2-5 combination as you could find anywhere in the country. But their lack of a floor general really undercut the talent that they had and led to the Longhorns having a somewhat disappointing season. But they enter this season with three solid options at the point: freshman sensation Avery Bradley, talented transfer Jai Lucas, and last year's backup Dogus Balbay. With that position stabilized the rest of UT's size, strength, talent and experience should really be able to flourish. The loss of A.J. Abrams is significant because it raises questions about the Longhorns' go-to guy. But they bring back eight of their top 10 scorers and can fall back on the exceptional Damion James. And with three stud post players, the aforementioned point guard depth, some other intriguing freshmen, and do-it-all leaders on the wing in James and Justin Mason, this team will be a Final Four threat and will be ready and waiting in the Big 12 if Kansas slips.

The Dark Horse: Kansas State

Head coach Frank Martin must be a smooth talker. This guy has built up a solid, under-appreciated program in an area that isn't exactly a college hoops hotbed. Martin welcomes back four of five starters, five of their top six scorers, and a pair of exciting newcomers that really could determine where this group's ceiling is. The Wildcats posses a pesky backcourt with Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente both able to go off for 25 on any given night. Two starters are back in the post and depth will come from a freshman and a transfer. Curtis Kelly came to Manhattan via Connecticut and freshman Wally Judge is a McDonald's All-American. This team is tough. And they are playing a strong non=conference slate that isn't too strong or too light. I think they will be a beast at home and I think that they will be able to knock off one of the top teams in the conference.

The X-Factor: Oklahoma State

I can't stress enough how good of a coach I think that Travis Ford is. He is building a strong program and I think that the Cowboys will be in great hands as long as he stays in Stillwater. Ford likes to play a frantic, up-tempo style that relies on a deep bench and athletic superiority. This year he will have one of the best players in the country in James Anderson. The small forward is a first round NBA Draft lock and can do whatever he wants on the court. His running mate is slick scorer Obi Muonelo at the two. However, both of those guys have to play out of position because OSU has just three guys taller than 6-8. And those three are two freshman and a sophomore, and two of the three have been loosely described as "projects". This team is going to cause all kinds of matchup problems because of their skill and style of play. But there are just way, way too many questions on this roster to count on the Cowboys as anything but a spoiler. 

The Surprise Team: Iowa State

I know it sounds crazy, but hear me out. Any time you have one of the best players in the country on your team you are going to be a threat to make The Big Dance. Craig Brackins, a 6-10 stud at forward that can hit from anywhere on the court, is exactly that for the Cyclones. Iowa State returns three other starters around their gem, including both backcourt starters in juniors Diante Garrett and Lucca Staiger and 6-11 banger Justin Hamilton in the post. But the real key is the addition of JUCO Player of the Year Marquis Gilstrap, a versatile 6-6 swingman that brings talent and fits a significant need. Brackins can carry this team when needed. But I think that there is just enough experience where if one or two supporting members off the bench can contribute (and there is some potential) than this team could be a surprise bubble team on Selection Sunday.

The ATS Machine: Colorado

Again, I know it sounds weird, but why not? The Buffs went 9-22 last year and just 1-15 in Big 12 play, so their value really couldn't be lower. But nine of those losses were by six points or less and five of them were by three points or less. Considering that they were all basically freshman and sophomores losing those tight games I'd say that there is a lot of room to grow. They have four returning starters, including a legit go-to guy in Cory Higgins, and are all a year stronger and a year wiser. This team is still physically overmatched compared to most Big 12 clubs. But having another year under their belts in Jeff Bzdelik's Princeton offense should make this a savvier team. So when they are consistently catching 10, 12, or 15 points from oddsmakers in conference play I think I'll be looking to cash in.

The Disappointment: Oklahoma

I know that with Willie Warren and Tony Crocker back this team has the foundation of a strong backcourt. And hey, nobody was a bigger Warren fan last year than I. Bt it's pretty simple: you don't lose the amount of talent that the Sooners did and just keep on going. Three starters are gone, along with talented forward Juan Pattillo, from last year's Elite Eight team. And when one of those departed starters happened to be the best player in the country and the No. 1 overall pick you can expect a bit of a demise. Now, this team won't sink into the abyss. They welcome in a pair of highly-touted freshmen (Tom Mason-Griffin and Tiny Gallon). But I'm just really not sure how all of the pieces will fit together and I think a natural letdown will occur.

The Rest:

Texas A&M - The Aggies are another one of those teams that just keep on keepin' on. Had forward Chinemelu Elonu not foolishly chosen to jump to the NBA this club would likely be in the preseason Top 20. But even without him there is a strong blend of experience and potential on this roster and I wouldn't be surprise for another overachieving season out of this program. They have a strong senior point guard (Donald Sloan), a powerful senior post (Bryan Davis), another senior glue guy (Derrick Roland), and a potentially explosive shooter off the bench (B.J. Holmes). That's a solid core. Depth is an issue. And some underclassmen have to step up. But the Aggies will just do what they do and be in the mix.

Missouri - Last season was really a peak experience for the Tigers. But, unfortunately, it's time to come back to reality a bit. The Tigers are kind of the Clemson of the Big 12; both teams rely on full-court pressure, a deep bench, and physically imposing frontcourts to overwhelm opponents. But unfortunately for Mizzou they lost the heart and soul of their team to graduation. Their top four guards all return so this team should transition nicely. But none of those four averaged more than 8.5 points per game and none can take over a game. The Tigers just don't have the power underneath that they did last year and I think that the lightning is out of the bottle.

Baylor - The nation's biggest disappointment in 2008-09 is back to its familiar role of conference underdog. I can do nothing but praise the reclamation job that coach Scott Drew has done with the Bears. But what I learned last year is that he is just not a very good game coach and I think that will plague this group again. There is talent in Waco, however. LaceDarius Dunn is a gunner and Tweety Carter has never been asked to run a team from the point. But transfer Ekpe Udoh is intriguing. And we'll see if Drew learned from his incredible mistake last year and will pair the 6-10 Udoh with 7-0 senior Josh Lomers to give this team size. And keep an eye on freshman Nolan Dennis.

Nebraska - Nebraska is a team that I have not had a lot of good fortune going against. Last year they worked a Mighty Mite lineup of four guards (two of them below six-feet tall) and won with grit, hustle, defense and some luck. This year they are nearly the antithesis, with seven players on the roster that are 6-8 or taller. Doc Sadler has been a magician with limited talent. But we'll have to see how he transitions his team from being completely perimeter reliant to a team whose strength resides in the post.

Texas Tech - Tech could potentially be another ATS winner out of the Big 12. Point guard John Roberson is one of the most underrated players in the nation and I think he's primed for a breakout season. And if Mike Singletary can build on his incredible conference tournament performance than Tech could have a backcourt to rival anyone in the league. But this roster is really a hodgepodge of pieces that I don't think will fit together to produce a postseason bid.

After you finish this NCAA basketball article check out our NCAA tournament bracket tips page. If you plan on betting college basketball you'll also want to read our Basketball Lines page. Doc's March Madness ideas resource is a must read for NCAA basketball wagering. Is there and NCAA basketball betting or handicapping topic you would like to see covered? Email service@docsports.com with your recommendations.

Robert Ferringo is a professional handicapper and he has gained nearly +300 Units over the past three college basketball seasons. You can purchase his college basketball picks here.