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Article Archives 2













2009-10 Big East Basketball Predictions
by Robert Ferringo - 11/2/2009

West Virginia's Devin Ebanks.

The Beast will certainly be weaker this season. But he is no less hungry.

Last year's Big East conference has been hailed by some as "the best", "the most talented" and "the most competitive" conference in college basketball history. While I'm not one for "The Best Ever" Game I will say that The Beast was definitely a godless killing machine last year that laid waste to opponents that got in its path.

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But now there is a new debate that should permeate the Big East this season: talent or experience?

Graduation and defection to the NBA has really gutted the top-tier teams in the Big East heading into this season. That has created an aura of instability and a "wide open" league race. The top teams - Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Syracuse, Marquette and Connecticut - lost an obscene amount of talent over the summer. But by virtue of their success and the names on the front of their jerseys these clubs were also able to reload with an influx of raw young talent.

But on the other side of the spectrum are the teams that were last year's cannon fodder. Teams like St. John's (five of five), Seton Hall (four of five), South Florida (four of five) and Cincinnati (four of five) have returned a majority of their starters and added other key pieces either through recruiting, transfer, or return from injury. The experience and cohesion that these teams have could potentially lead to one or more of them breaking through the stranglehold that the league powerhouses have had on the top seeds.

I expect that over the five-month college hoops season that talent will eventually elevate certain teams to the top. However, I wouldn't recommend betting on a lot of favorites this season in this league. The oddsmakers and the general public have a penchant for treating the "name" schools as if they were infallible. But I think that unlike last season where the bottom feeders were simply outgunned and outclassed that this year there is a much, much, much thinner margin between the schools at the top of the Big East Standings and those at the bottom.

Here are my 2009-10 Big East Basketball Predictions to help you with your college basketball picks:

The Favorite: Villanova

This year should be a bit of a flashback to 2006 Final Four team for the Wildcats. Like that club, this year's Wildcats will likely roll with a four-guard offense to try to offset their post weakness. Scottie Reynolds is one of my favorite players in college basketball and one of the best go-to men in the business. This club is deep and experienced, and is hungry to build on last season's Final Four appearance. But to simply crown this team despite what they lost to graduation is a bit premature. Their top three forwards are gone and this team has exactly two players - a redshirt sophomore and a freshman - that are 6-9 or taller. That freshman, Mouphtaou Yarou, is a Top 50 recruit that will go a long way in determining where this club's ceiling is. Their backcourt is unparalleled, even without glue guy Reggie Redding for the first semester (suspension). Their schedule is challenging but not overwhelming. There's a ton to love about this club but I'm not sure how much value is available after last year's success.

The Challenger: West Virginia

Expectations are higher than the Appalachians in Morgantown. Bob Huggins enters his third year at the helm of the Mountaineers and he finally has his pieces in place. This squad is tough, it's talented, and it's as rugged as the man that leads it. Forwards Da'Sean Butler and Devin Ebanks are NBA talents that are ready to elevate this club. But, and I may be in the minority here, I don't see anywhere near the talent on this roster that would justify the lofty expectations that I've seen for this club. This team is in the Top 10 in both preseason polls. I'm sorry, but they aren't that good. Not even close. There is no way that WVU is a Final Four contender, yet they are being treated as such. Tough? Yeah, I said that already. Elite? No chance. Not in this capper's view.

The Dark Horse: Syracuse  

You don't lose the amount of talent that Syracuse lost in the offseason and expect to get better. But at the same time, I still feel like Syracuse is a bit undervalued at the moment. With Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson the Orange boast a Top 10 frontcourt. And while I doubt that Wesley Johnson can live up to the enormous hype that's been thrown his way, I know that he'll be an effective and outstanding Big East player for this group. Their backcourt is better than people think and while they won't be as explosive offensively I think that this group can be more efficient on both ends of the court. The Orange have some nice pieces. And in a down year in the conference I think that their overall experience and their well-rounded roster will make them a tough out.

The X-Factor: Louisville

I am not high on the Cardinals. At all. I thought that Louisville was due for a down year last season, but the unreal play of Terrence Williams and Earl Clark was really able to mask the deficiencies that this program has. Heading into this season the incredibly negative karma of Rick Pitino and his adultery is another anchor around this group's neck; Rick can pretend that it won't impact his season but it's impossible not to. If Samardo Samuels takes the step forward that I expect him to there is enough natural ability here for the Cards to make it interesting. However, I just don't see how this group can lose the amount of talent that they have - and consistently shoot as poorly as they have from the perimeter - and still remain in the upper echelon of the Big East. I think this is a team to fade and will be a disappointment. But I also thought that last year and was dead wrong.

The Surprise Teams:

 

Seton Hall

This is one of the most dangerous teams in the East right now. You will hate to bet on them laying a bunch of points but you'll hate to bet against them as a fat underdog. But the bottom line is that this is a talented, hungry group that is ready for a return to the Glory Days of Pirates hoops. With veteran Eugene Harvey running the show, explosive Jeremy Hazell pumping in points, and big-time transfers Keon Lawrence (from Missouri) and Herb Pope (from New Mexico State) adding depth and talent this is a group that matches up well with any team in the conference. This is kind of a make-or-break year for coach Bobby Gonzalez and Seton Hall basketball. And I feel like this team is peaking in the league when the rest of the conference is down. I think that all of that is going to create a situation where The Hall wins some games that they aren't expected to, build some momentum, and then becomes a surprise tournament team.

Cincinnati - I love this Bearcats team. I'm going to repeat: I LOVE this team. Cincinnati was a scrappy, physical team last season that simply couldn't compete because of the high-end NBA talent that they were facing on a night-in and night-out basis. But this year I think they are poised for a huge jump in the standings and I, honestly, think that they are a strong contender to win the conference crown. Senior guard Deonta Vaughn is as much of a money player as there is in the Beast. They regained point guard Cashmere Wright to run the show, and they have outstanding role players (Larry Davis, Rashad Bishop, Yancy Gates) that can shoot, rebound, defend, and do anything this group needs to win. Mix in freshman Lance Stephenson who, once he gets cleared to play, is one of the top freshmen in the nation, and Ibrahima Thomas who, mark my words, will be one of the biggest impact transfers in the country and you have a team that can go nine-deep with talent and is desperate for a big year. I think that Cincy is the third-best team in the conference but the preseason rankings have them No. 7. The preseason rankings are wrong and I am right.

The ATS Machine: South Florida

Dominique Jones is one of the most underrated players in the entire country. And I bet if I threw his name out in general hoops conversation 19 of 20 people couldn't tell me whom he plays for. When your top player is that far under the radar your team is that far under the radar. And that screams value to me. Jones averaged 18 points and six rebounds per game last year in a conference loaded with NBA talent. Now he has help. Mike Mercer, a former All-SEC talent, came to USF last year after getting booted from Georgia because of off-court issues. Well, last year he was booted from USF due to off-court issues. But coach Stan Heath re-instated the talented forward. If Mercer regains his old form he could give the Bulls one of the best one-two perimeter punches not in the league, but in the country. The Bulls have three talented big men 6-10 or taller, including efficient forward Augustus Gilchrist, and a three-year starter at the point. Again, if Mercer uses his third chance to tap his potential then this team could - and I'm not joking - make a run at an NCAA Tournament berth. And because no one sees it coming they could be an absolute bull at the window.

The Disappointments:

 

Connecticut

The Huskies were picked No. 3 in the league by Big East coaches and media. Do they see something I don't? In 2005-06 Connecticut went 30-4 and made it to the Elite Eight. They lost their starting five from that team and finished 12th in the Big East the next year as they rebuilt. Last year they went 31-5 and managed to hit the Final Four. But they lost four of their starting five - including their heart and soul of Jeff Adrien, A.J. Price and the incomparable Hasheem Thabeet. You see where I'm going here? I expect a MAJOR drop-off. Yes, they have some decent pieces. Kemba Walker has star potential, Stanley Robinson has pro potential, and Jerome Dyson could rebound to give them a go-to guy. But other than that I see nada. This group is going to be held to the high standard that Connecticut basketball has earned. I don't think they are up to it.

Notre Dame - "Hey, they have one of the best players in the country." That is pretty much the only rationale that people have for thinking that Notre Dame will be a factor in the Big East this year. Yes, Luke Harangody is an All-American. But this Irish team is not even close to being better than the group that could only manage a 21-15 mark last season. Other than Harangody, who I suspect will be even whinier than normal in his senior season, this team has just two guys (guards Tory Jackson and Ben Hansbrough) that I think are capable of being major contributors. And neither one of those guys is that good. Don't waste your roll on a team that is not going to bounce back.

The Rest:

Georgetown - I have to say that I like the prospects for this Hoyas group. Greg Monroe might be the best center/power forward in the country. And if you disagree, start naming me someone better so I can shoot you down. They have a veteran backcourt, with two guys (Chris Wright and Austin Freeman) that averaged double digits for last year's group. But more importantly, they are one year older and have that much more experience in G-Town's complicated offense. The bench is light. And Monroe doesn't have much help. That means this team could max out in the regular season. But I think there is enough here - especially if a pleasant surprise or two pops up - to make some noise and get back to the "real" postseason.

Pittsburgh - They have a system. It's funny, I feel the same way about this Pitt team as I do about UCLA out in the Pac-10. Both teams have lost a comical amount of talent. However, both programs have sustained similar losses in recent years and still done work the following year. Pitt has averaged 27 wins per year for six years. Yes, part of that is the result of an embarrassingly weak schedule. But the rest has to do with coach Jamie Dixon and his philosophy of strong defense, tough rebounding, and playing with heart. You simply cannot lose the amount of talent that Pitt lost - three seniors and two other quality contributors - and expect to be a contender. And I expect this team to struggle early against equal (see: BCS) competition. But this group could win 20 games and I wouldn't be stunned, even though I think they stink. They will be around in March. And they will perform better than you expect through the course of the year.

Marquette - Speaking of losing talent - WOW. It's simple: no team in the nation lost as much as the Golden Eagles. A trio of three-year starters and some of the best players in the program's history are long gone, leaving a wake of inexperience and ineptitude behind them. Marquette is not very good. They have some guys that can play some ball. Lazar Hayward is legit and I think that Jimmy Butler is poised for a breakout season. But this team sucks. Coach Buzz Williams is going to find it slow going without a stocked cupboard. And while the rest of the conference is down this time around I can tell you that the Eagles might have the most ground to make up. 

St. John's - They have experience. But do they have talent? The Johnnies have three three-year starters on the roster, seven players that saw significant time last season, their best player back from injury, and the momentum of a group of guys that has been through a lot of losing together. It is kind of now or never for Norm Roberts. Top player Anthony Mason Jr. will be back from a hamstring injury in early December. And when he returns we're going to find out if the ceiling for this team is the NIT or a surprise trip to The Madness. They are one of the most experienced groups in the league. But, again, are they GOOD enough?

Rutgers - Mike Rosario and Greg Echenique are one of the better inside-out combos in the Big East this season. But they aren't good enough to carry this program into the upper echelon. Coach Fred Hill was able to trim the fat and dump some guys that didn't buy into where this team was heading. But they lost a bunch of talent and I just don't think that two good players can make up for a substandard roster. Rutgers could be a strong play against non-BCS schools and a tricky bet when they play at The RAC. But even with Rosario this group isn't any better than what we've seen from Jersey over the past decade.

Providence - I felt like the Friars were an underachieving unit last year. And after losing five senior starters, combining for an average of 51 points per game, it's easy to predict a crash-and-burn season. But I don't know about this group. Their frontcourt is a joke. But point guard Sharaud Curry could be an All-Big East player if he regains his pre-knee injury form and combo guards Marshon Brooks and Brian McKenzie have the goods to light the lamp. This team could be a thorn. However, their ceiling is quite obviously the NIT because of their stunningly impotent frontcourt. If Keno Davis couldn't get it done with last year's talent I don't see anything that would make me think it will be better this time around.

DePaul - Wow, does this team suck. DePaul went 0-18 last year in conference play. Is it possible to be worse this season? Jerry Wainwright has absolutely no idea what he's doing and I expect a crash and burn in what I suspect will be his final season with the Blue Demons. Bottom line: this team has two players (Mac Koshwal and Will Walker) that belong in BCS basketball. Other than that, this team has the talent level of a mediocre Ohio Valley team. They were pathetic last year and will be pathetic this year. That makes them one of the easiest teams to cap in the country.

Are you enjoying this column? Check out Doc's definition of March Madness page. Doc's Sports NCAA tournament facts page is and excellent NCAA basketball resource as well. When it comes to betting college basketball our final four picks feature is a must for any NCAA basketball fan. Keep abreast of all the college basketball topics as well as free picks and predictions on Doc's home page - check it out after reading this article.

Robert Ferringo is a professional handicapper and he has gained nearly +300 Units over the past three college basketball seasons. You can purchase his college basketball picks here.