Breeders' Cup Distaff Field and Analysis
by Trevor Whenham - 10/18/2007
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This year's Distaff will stick out in the minds of racing fans as the race that Rags to Riches should have won. The Belmont champ was hurt this summer, though, so we will have to wait until next year and hope that she returns to top form. In her absence a full field of fillies and mares are entered to race a mile and an eighth for $2 million. In what seems to be a common thread among this year's Breeders' Cup races, the Distaff is deep and full of impressive horses, but none jump out at you as a clear favorite. That means we may actually have to do some handicapping.
The likely favorite, Ginger Punch, is also one of the more interesting stories. She wasn't nominated to the Breeders' Cup at birth, so owner Frank Stronach has had to supplement her to the field at the cost of $90,000. The gamble seems worthwhile if you like what she did this summer as she won the Go For Wand by an impressive six lengths and then won the Ruffian by three lengths. She'd be a strong favorite if she hadn't ended up a tiring third in the Beldame last time out. She will be an necessity on most exotic tickets - she has been first or second in 11 of 13 career races, and only finished off the board once when the track was off. She's bred for Breeders' Cup success - her sire, Awesome Again, was the 1998 Classic winner, and his daughter Round Pond won the Distaff last year.
Todd Pletcher won't have Rags to Riches at Monmouth, but he'll have four other runners there in her place - Unbridled Belle and Indian Vale, who were the two horses that beat Ginger Punch in the Beldame, and Octave and Panty Raid. Unbridled Belle took almost a year off to recover from a rough three year old campaign, and she came back firing. She has two graded wins and a second this year. If she's not past her peak then she will be dangerous. Indian Vale was beat in the Beldame by just a head. After two stakes wins earlier in the year she had a very troubled third in the Personal Ensign at Saratoga. She was a very good three year old who missed most of last season. If she could find her three year old form she would be among the best in the division. Three-year-old Octave has two grade one wins this year, and has never been off the board in seven starts this year or five last year. The Distaff will be her first time against older horses, and she hasn't won in two starts, so it might be a bit too much for her here. Panty Raid has one big plus on her record - she won the Spinster at Keeneland. The winner of that race has won the Distaff 10 times. There is no better Breeders' Cup prep race for any division. She can run any distance, and she has won on dirt, turf and synthetic. It's not clear if dirt is her best surface, though.
Besides Octave and Panty Raid, four other three-year-olds will try the race, and all are tough. Lady Joanne has been on the board in all 10 starts. She won the Alabama this summer, and then almost added a second-straight grade one when she fell half a length short of Panty Raid in the Spinster. Her trainer, Carl Nafzger, is having a pretty good year - his small stable includes this horse and Street Sense. In six career starts Lear's Princess has four wins, including a grade one, and two seconds in grade ones. Most notably, she is the only horse to have ever beaten Rags to Riches. Like Ginger Punch, Tough Tiz's Sis needed to be supplemented to the race. She finally got her first grade one win in Lady's Secret on Oct. 7, but she was a strong third behind Lear's Princess in the Gazelle, and she has seen top competition many times. Bear Now trains in Canada, but it was in Philadelphia that she made her biggest splash. She wired the field in the Cotillion, and showed the kind of speed that could be well suited to the tight turns and short stretch of Monmouth. The level of competition she has seen is a big question mark, though.
Hystericalady has two graded stakes wins this year, including a dominating performance in the Molly Pitcher at Monmouth. More than any other in the field we can know for sure that she will like the surface. She has also run in 11 graded stakes, so she has loads of experience and she won't be bothered by anything she sees on the big day. She lost by a nose to Tough Tiz's Sis last time out. Balance is another California-based horse. She has four graded stakes wins, though all are in California. Like fellow Californian Lava Man, she hasn't done nearly as well outside of the state. She was third at Keeneland last year, and a disappointing fourth in the Beldame this year. She'd be dangerous if she could bring her California form with her.
A longshot that will get the imaginations of dreamers running is Prop Me Up. She'll get in the field if, as expected, My Typhoon and Nashoba's Key give up their spots in the Distaff in favor of other races. Prop Me Up is based at Monmouth, and she has been extremely successful over the surface. This race will be a giant leap in class for the horse, but it would be a story right out of the Disney studios if she could pull it off.
