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The morning line odds are set for the Breeders' Cup. All that's left to do is to handicap and to wait. It's the waiting that's killing me, so I keep coming up with different ways to look at the fields to try and find that extra edge. One of those ways of looking at the horses has been to assess the relative value of the favorites. We will see eight favorites in eight races on Saturday. Traditionally, about a third of favorites win. That means that five or six of the post time favorites will lose. In a perfect world we would bet on the Breeders' Cup favorites that win, and ignore the ones that won't. If only it were that easy.
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Power rankings seem to be all the rage in sports these days. With that in mind, here are my power rankings of the eight Breeders' Cup morning line favorites. These obviously aren't done purely on their odds, or even on the relative merits of their careers. Instead, I have tried to look at the field they are running against, the public element involved in the price, and their likelihood of coming out on top.
1. Nashoba's Key, Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (3/1) - This horse makes the top of the list almost by default. I'm a critical guy at times, but you can't find much fault with a horse that has never lost in seven tries, and has beaten the best of her region repeatedly. There are concerns - she's never traveled, for example - but her division isn't the deepest and she measures up well against her best competitors. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Nashoba's Key cross the finish line first.
2. War Pass, Breeders' Cup Juvenile (5/2) - The Juvenile has been tough on favorites over the years, but War Pass looks to have as good a shot as any here. It's hard to dislike a horse that not only has never lost, but has never been out of the lead at any point in any race. He's improved every time out, and his 103 Beyer in his Champagne win is the best in the field. Nick Zito trains him, and he is notoriously conservative with his juveniles, so you know that the horse is up for the challenge if he is entered.
3. Excellent Art, Breeders' Cup Mile (3/1) - Excellent Art isn't the best miler in Europe, but without Ramonti in the field he's the best one that crossed the ocean. He's raced the best in Europe, he's done well at this distance, and he is bred for the surface. Aidan O'Brien is an excellent trainer, and he is very high on this horse. The rest of the field is talented, but most of the top runners - Nobiz Like Shobiz, Trippi's Storm, Kip Deville, Purim, Jeremy - have serious questions that are hard to answer. Excellent Art is the most complete runner in the field.
4. Indian Blessing, Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (3/1) - I should be more excited about the favorite in this race, because it has traditionally been kind to the chalk. That's what puts her as high on this list as she is, because she has too many questions on her own. No horse has ever won this race off of just two career starts, so this filly may be too green. She's also coming off a win in Frizette in which she did the last two furlongs in 27.1 seconds. That was obviously fast enough, but it is laughably slow for this level of horse, and raises alarms.
5. Lawyer Ron, Breeders' Cup Classic (5/2) - I don't want to suggest for a second that i don't respect this horse. He is a warrior and I would be neither surprised nor disappointed to see him win. The Classic is just such a ridiculously deep and difficult field this year that any favorite is tenuous. Curlin and Street Sense are both at 3/1, Any Given Saturday is 4/1, and Hard Spun is a relative bargain at 8/1. Any one of those five horses could win with ease, and Tiago is a live option, too. There really isn't a true favorite in a field like this.
6. Dylan Thomas, Breeders' Cup Turf (7/5) - This horse is as classy as any on this card, and I respect him immensely. I just can't get behind him at 7/5. He faces what seems to me to be an almost impossible task. On Oct. 7 he won the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe over soft turf in a tough battle. Now we're asking him to fly to an entirely different continent and race against the best turf horses here and several from Europe on another potentially soft track less than three weeks later. The last time he came over to this side of the pond he was disappointing, though that was on dirt. I will take my hat off to this horse if he can manage it, but at this price I am going to let him beat me.
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7. Midnight Lute, Breeders' Cup Sprint (2/1) - I don't have anything against this horse and I think that he is a contender, but not one worthy of 2/1. His race in the Forego, with a 124 Beyer, was massive. If he can replicate that he is virtually guaranteed to win. That number doesn't seem sustainable, and there are other horses to like just as much as this one at prices that are much more attractive. Like Dylan Thomas, I am pretty convinced that I am going to let this horse beat me if he can.
8. Indian Vale, Breeders' Cup Distaff (3/1) - Surprised that Indian Vale was made the favorite? You're not the only one. Todd Pletcher trains the horse, and he is on record saying he was surprised. Don't get me wrong, she's a nice horse. If this was 2005 she would be a very legitimate favorite. She missed most of last year with an injury, though, and has struggled to find the form she had before she was injured. She hasn't won a grade one yet this year, and she has faded in her last two efforts. She is a decent horse and she will be a factor here, but in a deep field like this she hardly represents a bargain at this price.