We're getting into the meat of the baseball season. Several playoff races are wide open. On the individual side, the Cy Young races in both leagues are still open for several pitchers to win. Several pitchers are having good years, but no one is pulling away from the pack. Any time there is a race with more than one entry there is, of course, a chance to bet on it. Here's a look at how to capitalize on the Cy Young races (all odds are from Sportsbetting.com):
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American League
The favorite - Josh Beckett, Red Sox (2/1) - At this point in the season Beckett is clearly the leader, and if I had to pick one pitcher to win the award it would be Beckett, but I don't like him at these odds. He's only 3-3-1 in his last seven starts, and he has been giving up a lot of hits. His last outing against Roger Clemens and the Yankees was a disaster, with 13 hits in less than seven innings. There's a chance he could slip down the stretch, or that an injury could arise. At 4/1 I'd be all over it, but at this price I'm looking for value elsewhere.
Kelvim Escobar, Angels (3/1) - This is an intriguing choice. His E.R.A. is half a point better than Beckett's, and he's just one win behind at 15-6. He has three complete games and a shutout, which voters like (Beckett has just one complete game and no shutouts). The Angels have shifted into high gear and pulled away with the AL West in the last few weeks, and Escobar has done his job by going 4-0 over that time. He's allowed more than two runs just twice since the beginning of July and more than three runs only once. If the Angels stay strong, and especially if the Red Sox falter against the Yankees, Escobar could move into the conversation in a big way. He doesn't have the name recognition of Beckett, but he's a veteran who has put in his time, and the voters like that (Bartolo Colon, Pat Hentgen, Chris Carpenter).
Johan Santana, Twins (4/1) - The two-time winner will have several more before he is done, and he's getting some attention of late, but he just doesn't have the numbers to get it done this season. Fourteen wins is competitive, and his 3.06 E.R.A. is also competitive, but 10 losses at this point is just too many He has two knocks against him. First, he's not playing for a contender. That can be overcome, but the numbers have to be gaudy, and his clearly aren't. He also has managed to lose four times to the best team in his division, the Indians. That barely seems possible, and it won't help his case at all. At these odds he's a sucker bet.
Erik Bedard, Orioles (4/1) - As a Canadian I am thrilled for the success of my fellow countryman Bedard. He's 13-5 for a team that isn't very good, and he's leading the majors in strikeouts. He had a streak of nine wins without a loss from the middle of June until his last start. He has two problems, though. First, his team is in the tank after making a bit of a charge. Second he's missing at least one start with an injury. In his position he would have had to close very well down the stretch to get legitimate consideration. I'd be thinking about him at 8/1 or better, but this price is too low.
Dan Haren, A's (4/1) - Haren leads the league in E.R.A., and he's a nice 14-5. He has the problem of several of the others, though - he plays for a lousy team. He's also just 1-2 in his last five starts, and he's been giving up uncharacteristic numbers of runs and hits over that stretch. He'd have to stay ahead in E.R.A. and get a bunch more wins to pull it off. I'm not betting on that happening.
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National League
The favorite - Jake Peavy, Padres (3/2) - Peavy is very deservedly favored. He is second in the league in E.R.A. behind teammate Chris Young, and he leads the league in wins with 15. He's also the runaway leader in strikeouts, and opposing batters are hitting just .207 against him. He hasn't lost since July 22, and he has six wins since then. San Diego is on a tear, and Peavy is a big part of the reason. He's the solid choice, but 3/2 is not very good. Is there anyone else out there?
Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks (2/1) - Voters love repeat winners, but I don't see how Webb will get it done. He's 14-9, and he plays for a lousy team. He won last year at just 16-8, but there wasn't another, better choice. He's at the price he is because he went over a month without allowing an earned run. That's impressive, but the whole picture just isn't good enough. Even with that stretch his E.R.A. is only 2.83. Peavy is at 2.18. Webb would need to have a very good September to move ahead of Peavy, and the chances of that happening don't justify this price.
Brad Penny, Dodgers (7/2) - At the end of July I could have made a strong case for Penny, but August has been a disaster. He's 1-3 in seven starts. It has to be frustrating to him that most of his problems in August have been due to a lack of run support, but the fact remains that he doesn't have the record, and that will hurt. His E.R.A. is higher than Webb, he doesn't have a lot of strikeouts, and he's walked eight more batters than Peavy. Penny has had a good year, but it increasingly looks like this is Peavy's race to lose.