For bettors, the Super Bowl is easily the highlight of the year – like a kid going to Disney World for the first time. But in many ways, it’s almost too daunting. There are so many prop bets available that it’s easy to get a bit overwhelmed and stretched too thin.

I am guilty of this as I have looked over at least 1,500 prop options on a handful of the top books. Some are very clever, some very silly. But in large part players are going to stick to the major props, so those are the ones I will address in this predictions story.

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Most Valuable Player

Easily the most popular prop on the board every Super Bowl outside of betting the Super Bowl coin toss (I’m going AFC this year, by the way, to end the NFC’s incredible 14-game winning streak on the coin toss) is on the MVP winner. And pretty much every season now, the two starting quarterbacks are the favorites – this year New England’s Tom Brady is 7/5 followed by the Giants’ Eli Manning at 9/4. Quarterbacks have won the award by far and away the most times, 24 overall, including two straight and four of the past five.

And if you want more proof that the NFL has morphed offensively from a running league a passing one, know this: No running back has won MVP since Denver’s Terrell Davis in Super Bowl XXXII. Two defensive players have won it since then. And receivers are clearly getting more vital. Since XXXVIII when Brady won his second SB MVP award, the only position other than QB to win the award has been receiver – three times, with the last being Pittsburgh’s Santonio Holmes in XLIII. This Super Bowl is the first to match starting QBs who each have won a SB MVP award.

I am going to go outside of a QB on this pick, however. A signal-caller hasn’t won an MVP award three years in a row since Terry Bradshaw (twice), Jim Plunkett and Joe Montana made it four years in a row from the 1978-81 seasons. That seems like a trend. I like Giants WR Hakeem Nicks at 12/1. I’m sure Manning will have a good game, but I can see Nicks doing something like 165 yards and two scores – which were his numbers in the Divisional Round win over Green Bay. And the Pats aren’t familiar with Nicks as he missed the regular-season meeting.

First Score in Super Bowl

There are plenty of “first” props available for the game – I will focus on the first touchdown scored. Actually, check that, let’s go with first score overall initially. The odds on that are a touchdown at -180 and a field goal/safety at +150. And will the team that scores first win? ‘Yes’ is at -165 with ‘no’ at +135. Back in Super Bowl XLII between these two, the Giants did score first on a 32-yard first-quarter field goal by Lawrence Tynes and, of course, did win the game, 17-14.

In these playoffs, the Giants fell down 2-0 on a safety to Atlanta and 7-0 in the NFC title game in San Francisco but did take a 3-0 first-quarter lead on Green Bay. The Patriots have scored first in both games, a TD pass against Denver and a field goal against the Ravens.  In the regular-season meeting between New England and the Giants, New York scored first on a Tynes field goal in the third quarter (who would have guessed a scoreless first half?). And I think you simply have to believe it will be a field goal again here. Just on pure value and because both Brady and Manning are great in the fourth quarter, I am taking “no” on the team scoring first winning.

As for who scores the first touchdown overall, the favorite is New England tight end Rob Gronkowski at 6/1. That makes sense considering Gronk set an NFL record for his position with 17 regular-season scores and had three more against Denver. But he’s not going to be anywhere near 100 percent with the high-ankle sprain suffered in the AFC title game. So I don’t like him there. Plus, he hasn’t scored the Pats’ first touchdown since early December.

Obviously, it’s hard to know which team gets the ball first – whichever wins the coin toss no doubt will defer. But for New England, I like Wes Welker as the option to score first (8/1 to score first TD of game overall, 4/1 to score Pats’ first touchdown). Welker had a great game earlier against the Giants with nine catches for 136 yards but didn’t score. He did score the team’s first TD in the playoff opener with Denver. Welker is also the 5/2 favorite to have the Pats’ first reception – love that.

For the Giants, I like Brandon Jacobs at 12/1 to score the first TD overall and 6/1 to score the Giants’ first. He’s the goal-line back over Ahmad Bradshaw. Jacobs did score in the playoff win over Green Bay (although not first) and also had New England’s first TD in the earlier game in New England. Bradshaw didn’t play that day. You can double up on whether Jacobs scores a touchdown at any point, with yes at +215, and I will be doing so. I think Tom Coughlin will want to establish the run to keep Brady off the field.

By the way, New England’s last four Super Bowl have all been decided by three points. That’s also a prop, whether the game ends with a margin of exactly three. Yes at +325 might be great value there, especially after the craziness we saw on conference championship weekend. And on the odd/even overall point total, the last three Super Bowls overall and four of the past five have landed on even (+110 this time, with odd at -140).

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