Houston Texans Predictions for Playoffs and Best Bets with Super Bowl Odds
The Houston Texans took down the AFC South for the first time since 2019, with a 10-7 record. After going a combined 11-38-1 over the last 3 seasons, a double-digit win campaign for the Texans was unexpected. CJ Stroud injected life into this lifeless Texans squad, as the rookie signal caller not only guided Houston to a division title but carved up one of the best defenses in the league in the Wild Card Round. Houston will have to leave the comfort of home and head to Baltimore for a tough playoff matchup. However, after beating the Browns 45-14, they will feel confident they can keep the Ravens game close, and possibly emerge with an unlikely victory. The odds are juicy for Houston’s playoff progression. But are they long enough to justify a hail mary bet on them? Let’s dive in.
Odds to win the Divisional round: +325
Odds to win the AFC: +1400
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +3300
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Team Breakdown
CJ Stroud has put together one of the best rookie campaigns for a quarterback in recent memory, dragging the Texans out of the basement and into the second round of the postseason. He spearheaded the 7th ranked passing offense in the league. And even when Tank Dell went down with injury, his production remained consistent. He finished 8th in the league in passing yards despite missing 2 games with injury, as his poise in the pocket, combined with laser like accuracy, has resulted in several explosive plays throughout the season. In Dell’s absence, Nico Collins has been heavily relied on down the sideline. In the ‘win and in’ game against the Colts in Week 18, Collins went for 195 yards, hitting triple digits for the 5th time this season. He was a big reason as to why Houston is in the postseason, and he kept his momentum going with a 96-yard game against the Browns, scoring a touchdown. While Stroud and Collins may steal the spotlight, a solid offensive line has been a critical difference for Houston. Tackle Laremy Tunsil was named as a starter in the Pro Bowl, and the Texans line has kept Stroud safe and allowed him to make the bigtime throws needed to succeed. Devin Singletary and Dameon Pierce won’t be getting any MVP votes in the backfield, but a solid run game has kept defenses honest. However, it’s very clear that the Texans will need to keep the ball in Stroud’s hands as much as possible if they want to succeed, as the young signal caller has gotten them this far, and the length of their postseason journey will be firmly dependent on his play.
On defense, Houston has been good but not great. It all starts with the defensive line for the Texans. Houston made headlines when they traded up to select Will Anderson Jr. with the third overall selection, and that decision has paid off. Anderson Jr’s 7 sacks is nothing to scoff at, but his run stopping ability has been the real difference-maker for the Texans. Anderson Jr., along with Jonathan Greenard, who recorded the 10th most sacks in the league with 12.5, were both named as Pro Bowl alternates thanks to their dominant play in both the passing and rushing game. They allowed Houston to hold teams to the 6th fewest rushing yards. And against a team built like the Ravens, their ability to stop the run will be crucial. In the secondary, Derek Stingley Jr. was named to the Pro Bowl as an alternate thanks to his 5 interceptions, but he will need to be careful not to get over aggressive with a double move down the sideline. The Texans have gotten caught over the top on numerous occasions this season, and Stingley and the rest of the secondary will need to mind their P’s and Q’s to avoid any game changing plays against them. Overall, the Texans have a mediocre defense that will need to step up at key moments and let their offense do what they’ve done all season long and outscore any defensive issues.
Path to the Super Bowl
A home game to kick off the postseason was a nice treat for Houston, but a pair of road games against the Ravens, and the victor of Bills vs Chiefs, will be tough sledding for the Texans. Baltimore has sat atop the AFC standings for the last 3 months. And in their first playoff game of the season, they will be fully rested and riding the energy of the home crowd. If by some miracle the Texans pick apart the Ravens top-rated defense, and limit their MVP quarterback, the opposition will not get any easier, as the perennial contender Bills, or the defending champion Chiefs, will be waiting for them. The Bills are one of the scariest teams in the league right now, as Josh Allen is willing to sacrifice his body to pick up extra yards, and their stout defense has withstood their injury issues. While the Chiefs may not be the high-flying team they once were, they are suddenly a defensive juggernaut, with Patrick Mahomes at the reins on offense. The Texans have an uphill battle to reach the Super Bowl. And in a crowded AFC, they will struggle to prevail.
Best Bets
In all honesty, the odds are not long enough to warrant a bet on the Texans. The Ravens, Chiefs, and Bills are all capable of dominating Houston at home, and expecting a pair of road playoff wins against the best teams in the league from Houston is a tall task. The growth and development from their young core led to a home playoff win against the Browns, and that tangible success will be celebrated. However, even at +325 to beat the Ravens, or +1400 to win the AFC, the odds aren’t long enough to take a shot. Baltimore has a dominant defensive unit that will show Houston how far off they really are from challenging for the Super Bowl. Houston will get bounced in the divisional round, and there is really no money to be made on their progression. Some underdogs are worth a shot, and some are just simply equivalent to setting your money on fire. Sometimes, the best bet to make is to wait for a better opportunity, and the Texans aren’t worth a penny of your hard-earned cash.
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