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2009-10 Houston Texans Predictions
by Nicholas Tolomeo - 8/17/2009

Houston Texans running back Steve Slaton.

2008 Record: 8-8 (5-3 H, 4-4 R); third in AFC South
2008 Against the spread: 9-7 (5-3 H, 4-4 A); 10-5-1 vs. Total (5-3 H, 3-2-1 A)
2008 Rankings: 3rd offense (13th rush, 4th yard); 22nd defense (23rd rush, 17th pass)
2009 Odds: 40-1 Super Bowl Odds; 18-1 AFC Championship odds; 3-1 AFC North; 8 wins (O/U)

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Perhaps one of the most entertaining teams of 2008, the Texans were an ‘over’ bettor’s dream come true for the first 10 weeks of the season as they posted gaudy numbers but also allowed lots of points as well.

At their respective positions Andre Johnson and Steve Slaton are two of most exciting players in the league. However, there are major questions about the guy lining up under center. In 11 games of action last year Matt Schaub posted some impressive numbers but most were accumulated while his team was playing catch-up. For a team that allowed as many points as it did, his 15 touchdowns were not enough and his 10 interceptions AND 10 fumbles were way too many. The 20 turnovers by Schaub along with the six interceptions by departed backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels accounted for only half of the Texans’ 32 turnovers on the season, 29th worst in the league.

Still, with RB Slaton and a 1,268-yard season under his belt and WR Johnson fresh off a 115-reception season, I think the offense will be fine. However, the defense, with many new pieces to incorporate into the mix, will be the most scrutinized unit in Houston.

After a breakout year last year the sophomore campaign of Slaton, a West Virginia product, could define where his career is going. He entered the year last season with a role that was ever-changing from a third-string running back to third down back to finally the full-time starter, taking over for since departed Ahman Green.

Coming out of West Virginia two years ago Slaton’s speed has always been unquestionable, but his size did have scouts thinking twice. He did a lot to disprove that last season. However, without Green he will be in line for more carries and his durability will be put to the test.  The zone-blocking scheme implemented two years ago was derived from the Denver Broncos offense but it was also used at West Virginia and has been a big reason why Slaton has and potentially will continue to flourish.

Gary Kubiak is back for his fourth season but his defensive coordinators took the fall for last season’s defense that allowed more than 336 points per game. Out are defensive coordinator Richard Smith, defensive backs coach Jon Hoke, defensive line coach Jethro Franklin and in, along with the new coaches, are first-round NFL Draft pick OLB Brian Cushing, who was drafted 15th overall from USC and Connor Barwin the DE from Cincinnati taken in the second round.

Of course, drafting defenders in the first round is not a sure sign improvement is on the way as was the case when the Texans took Mario Williams first overall.

The struggling defense and the potent offense were a major reason why the Texans opened the season covering nine of their first 10 games. This team quickly became one of the most popular NFL picks. As the totals increased, though, the Texans finished the regular season on a 0-4-1 run covering the total.

2009-10 Houston Texans Predictions: With three seasons at the helm and only a 22-26 record to show for it with no playoff appearances Texans coach Kubiak may start to feel his seat warm up this season, especially if there is another slow start.

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With the pressure mounting, a new defensive coaching staff and youth in place, the Texans have the pieces to compete in the competitive AFC South. A playoff push is a possibility but post-season props are an extreme long shot. Taking the ‘over’ for season wins, eight, looks like a solid bet with a likely win or push.