2008 Record: 12-4 (6-2 H, 6-2 R); second in AFC South
2008 Against the spread: 7-9 (3-5 H, 4-4 R); 8-8 vs. Total (3-5 H, 5-3 R)
2008 Rankings: 15th offense (31st rush, 5th pass); 11th defense (23rd rush, 5th pass)
2009 Odds: 14-1 Super Bowl Odds; +650 AFC Championship odds; +140 NFC West; 10 wins (O/U)

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If it’s not broke don’t fix it, unless of course you are the Indianapolis Colts. After making playoff appearances in nine out of the last 10 seasons and going 85-27 in their last seven seasons the Colts coaching staff has undergone a complete and total overhaul.

Obviously not all was by choice as Tony Dungy retired but new coach Jim Caldwell completely overhauled a staff that has seen unprecedented success over the last decade, including a Super Bowl win.

The players are the ones playing the game on the field but drastic changes to the sideline personnel demands a closer look. Offensive coordinator Tom Moore and offensive line coach Howard Mudd both were a part of the organization for the last 11 seasons each and each announced his retirement after last year.

That is in addition to Caldwell firing both defensive coordinator Ron Meeks and special teams coach Russ Purnell. If the first-year coach is under turmoil he will have no veteran coordinator to turn to, just first-year coaches like himself.

Of course, some of the offensive coaching can be a moot point considering Peyton Manning acts as his own coach on the football field. But for the first time in his career Manning will be without the franchise’s greatest receiver, Marvin Harrison. Also, no matter what Peyton does he is still dealing with a rushing offense that ranked 31st in the league last season only mustering 79 yards per game.

That rushing attack may or may not get a boost from the drafting of Donald Brown out of UConn. The first-round pick (No. 27 overall) will be implemented in the same two-back system that the Colts have tried year in year out. He will start behind Joseph Addai and take over for departed free agent Dominic Rhodes. The running attack will almost certainly be an improvement from the abysmal attack last year that was mainly a result of a battered offensive line, which appears to be healthy heading into the season.

Defensively the rushing defense was almost as bad as the rushing offense. There was a major reason why an 8-8 San Diego Chargers team ended the season of the Colts (who were the hottest team in football at the time, having won nine in a row) in the first round of the playoffs. The Chargers were able to stop the run (like every other team did against the Colts) and run the ball. The Colts allowed 123 yards per game on the ground, 23rd in the NFL.

The defense should be improved as Bob Sanders should be back in the lineup on a regular basis after being hampered with injuries last season. Veterans Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis and Raheem Brock will be playing alongside new additions Fili Moala (second round from USC) and Terrance Taylor (fourth round from Michigan).

2009-10 Indianapolis Colts Predictions: The pieces to win are there but there are a lot of “what ifs”. To make a football prediction for the Colts to go over 10 wins as Las Vegas projects, a bettor has to count on linemen Jeff Saturday and Ryan Lijia to stay healthy, safety Bob Sanders to return to his 2007 form and Reggie Wayne to take over as the go-to guy for good with no more Marvin Harrison.

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All that on top of counting on an extreme makeover coaching staff to continue the job Tony Dungy had been doing. That is too many questions and what ifs. The smart football pick here is Colts under 10 wins this season.