I am a huge fan of this Kentucky Derby field. Last year’s problem was that it didn’t seem like there was a single horse worthy of winning the race. This year there are almost too many to choose from. This is a deep, impressive field.

There are at least a dozen horses in the 20-horse field with the potential to win it all, and just five that I will rule out entirely without being too nervous. From all that, though, there are six horses that stand out as the most serious 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders:

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Bodemeister

This is the most talented horse in this field. He’s stunningly fast, he has shown great versatility in his short career, and his win in the Arkansas Derby was by far the most impressive race by any horse so far this year.

On pure talent he stands alone.

There are some big questions, though. For one, no horse since 1882 has won the Derby without racing as a two year old, so Bodemeister has a lot of history to overcome. He’s also a horse who has only won in wire-to-wire fashion, and he’s going to be tested hard to get the lead early thanks to horses like Trinniberg, Hansen, and Take Charge Indy. I think he can win that duel, and he has the breeding to get the distance, but it would be a very impressive performance if he could hold on to win.

Despite everything working against him, though, I can’t overlook just how good he is.

Union Rags

He’s a very impressive horse with strong breeding and fine training. He has run six times and has won four of those races. It’s the other two, though, that are my concern.

In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile he moved up nicely, but couldn’t quite get past Hansen. Since then, though, we’ve seen enough of Hansen to think that Union Rags really should have been able to get past him.

The second loss was a third-place finish in the Florida Derby — his last race. There is no reason to believe that he couldn’t have won that race, but it was a flat performance from the start and he wound up an unthreatening third.

He had some excuses in both races, but there will be no shortage of excuses in the craziness of the Derby, so that doesn’t ease my mind. He’s absolutely talented enough to win. Is he hungry enough to do so?
 
Dullahan

There is one thing that stands out above all else when you look at this horse — his dam is Mining My Own, who is also the mother of Mine That Bird. This horse will come into the Derby at much lower odds, though, and many more people will bet on him than bet on his half-brother.

There is one big issue I have with this horse. He won the Blue Grass Stakes last time out. Since Keeneland switched to a synthetic surface the winners of that race have been very disappointing in the Derby.

Dullahan has run his best races off the dirt, so he needs to take a step forward here. By breeding alone, though, we know he can do it.

Creative Cause

There are a lot of reasons to like this horse. He’s been more tested against better horses than any other. His speed figures are excellent, he’s never finished out of the money, and he can run from several different places in the field, so he’s definitely not as vulnerable to different pace scenarios as some horses.

Two races back he also chased down Bodemeister to win by less than a length.

The biggest issue I have, though, is his attention span. His connections made the odd decision to run him without blinkers for the first time in the Santa Anita Derby. He looked distracted down the stretch in that race. Despite the fact that there is no race that could possibly be more distracting than the Derby they are again going without blinkers. Seems like an unnecessary risk to me.

Alpha

His Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was a disastrous 11th-place showing. Since then, though, he has looked great. He has won twice, and came up just short in a nice duel with Gemologist last time out. His breeding is flawless, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is very good, and he seems to be growing into himself. He has been training very well leading into the Derby, too.

The biggest concern is that he fought an infection after his last race that cost him four days of training. It appears that he is in form again, though. Another concern is the strange game played with jockeys here. Regular rider Ramon Dominguez chose to ride Hansen (the wrong move in my eyes), so the connections were in the market for a new rider. They settled on the talented Rajiv Maragh, but they didn’t officially designate him until entries were submitted, and openly said that they were keeping their options open. It seems like a very strange way to deal with such an important element of a Derby win.

Gemologist

It’s hard to find too much fault with a horse that has never lost. He’s run five times, and thanks to his breeding there is no question about his distance ability. He also has one of the best, and hottest, jockeys riding today aboard in Javier Castellano.

I’m concerned that his speed ratings aren’t quite as high as others, and I have a deep bias against Todd Pletcher horses, but he’ll provide excellent value at his likely price.

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