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Wednesday afternoon saw the annual spectacle that is the Kentucky Derby post position draw. It's one of the more unique pre-event happenings in sports, and the results are annually heavily debated between when the field is set and the race starts. The post positions are, in my view, also one of the more overrated and over-considered factors leading up to the Derby.
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Some post positions have unquestionably been more successful than others, but the size of the field and the wild number of factors that affect the outcome of this race make post positions less important in this race than in many smaller, more traditional races. The distance of the race and of the stretch before the first turn also make the start less important than it has been in any race these horses have run to date. At the very least, other factors like the pace scenario, running styles of key contenders, jockeys and their aggressiveness, and others are more important than the slot from which the horses break.
Post positions obviously won't be at the top of my list of concerns, but they are still interesting to consider - every detail is at least somewhat interesting leading up to this race. Here is a look at some trivia and insight about Kentucky Derby post positions:
The selection process is actually a two-step affair. First, pills representing each of the 20 entered horses are drawn from a barrel to determine the order of selection. The first horse drawn then has the first chance to pick a post position, and so on. This year, Join in the Dance was drawn first from the barrel - the only contest he is likely to win this week. His connections chose the No. 9 spot in the starting gate. West Side Bernie was the last to choose, and was stuck on the rail - where he is likely to get trapped and crowded by the mass of horses moving in to run the shortest possible distance.
For several years now, the commonly held rule was that a horse couldn't win outside of the No. 16 post. It had only happened once in 51 years leading up to last season. Big Brown showed that anything can happen, though - he won convincingly last year from the far outside No. 20 position. He also showed the relative insignificance of post positions for horses of certain styles - his connections had the option of picking the prime No. 2 spot, but instead choose the 20 so that there was no chance of a horse boxing him in from the outside. Desert Party in the No. 19 spot is the only legitimate contender this year starting from way outside. While his chances aren't as good as they would be if he was in a more prime position, he still clearly can win if all goes well.
Statistically, the prime spot over the last half-century or so is the No. 10 position. There, horses are close enough to the inside to get a shot at a rail position, and inside of enough horses to avoid some trouble. Seven of the last 52 winners have come from that post position. Regal Ransom has that position this time around.
Historically, the No. 2 position has been the best all-time slot, with 29 winners in 135 tries. That spot belongs to Musket Man this year - a decidedly under-appreciated horse at 20/1. His accomplishments this year and the position could combine to make him a bargain.
Over the last 10 years, two post positions have won twice - the No. 5 and the No. 16. Charismatic in 1999 and Monarchos in 2001 won out of the No. 16 spot, while War Emblem and Funny Cide were back-to-back winner out of the No. 5 starting in 2002. Based purely on numbers it would seem unlikely that those posts would win yet again, but Hold Me Back inside and Pioneerof The Nile outside will be hoping that the post positions don't matter much.
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One of the more interesting post positions in the Derby is the No. 15. The standard starting gate at Churchill Downs only holds 14 horses. That means that an auxiliary gate is used for the last six horses in the field. The 15 slot is obviously the first in the smaller gate, and there is a larger than normal gap between the 14 and 15 spot because of how the two starting gates connect. That means that the 15 horse has more room on his inside than every other horse, and therefore has more room to move without the risk of contact. Some trainers think this is a big advantage and will seek out the spot. Todd Pletcher did just that with Dunkirk this year. That horse is raw and inexperienced, so the extra room could make a significant difference.