Let the Madness begin. Part of what makes the NCAA Tournament so great is the March Madness bracket. It seems like such a simple concept, but the bracket can lead to endless speculation, countless possibilities, and intense debate.

In the Tournament It seems like anything can happen. Some things, though, are far more likely than others. To help you decode what is likely to happen, what is possible, and what just won’t happen here are some March Madness seed statistics for the 2012 NCAA Tournament:

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No. 1 seeds

Last year it was hard to get too excited about the No. 1 seeds. They seemed to have issues heading into the tournament, and with their play they proved that to be true. Not a single No. 1 seed made the Final Four. In fact, only one — Kansas — was still standing in the Elite Eight. While that certainly made for an exciting and wide open tournament, it’s important to note that from a statistical perspective it was a total anomaly.

The NCAA Tournament expanded to a 64-team field in 1985. Last year was only the second year — along with 2006 — in which at least one No. 1 seed has not made the Final Four. It’s even less common, though, that all four top seeds win their region — that only happened in 2008. Two top seeds have only met in the championship game five times as well. That means that trends would suggest to us that while at least one No. 1 will make the Final Four it’s unlikely that two will survive the Saturday Final Four contests.

Kentucky is getting a lot of attention this year as the top overall seed. They deserve it — I’m not the only one who thinks that they are by far the class of the field. Their road is not an easy one, though. The top overall seed has only won the tournament four times in the 64-team era, and not since 1995. That means that the top seeds haven’t won at a more consistent rate than the other top seeds — No. 1s have won 16 of the 27 full-field tournaments.

The one thing you can remain confident in, though, is that the No. 1 seed is going to win their first-round game. They have never lost a first-round game, and only rarely come close. The last time a top seed only won their opener by single digits was back in 1997. Last year Pitt lost to eighth-seeded Butler in the second round, but even that only happens about 20 percent of the time. A No. 1 loses to a No. 9 far less often in the second round — it only occurs about five percent of the time.

Top Three Seeds

While last year seemed like a total mess of a tournament from a seeding perspective it actually fell within form thanks to UConn’s win. They were a No. 3 seed. That marked the 24th time in 27 years that a Top 3 team had cut down the nets. Only three higher seeds — a four, a six, and an eight — have won in that time. UConn was the fourth No. 3, and four No. 2s have won as well.

While any of the Top 3 seeds can clearly win if things work well for them, you can be reasonably confident, though, that things won’t go well for all of the Top 3 seeds — 2009 was the only year that all 12 teams among the top three seeds survived to the Sweet 16. If you add in the No. 4 seeds to the group then you can really be confident of first-round upsets — only four times in 27 years have the top four seeds all survived their first-round game.

Looking For Upsets

The No. 12 seeds are the ones that get so much attention because we have seen so many upsets in their first-round games that we have come to expect them. Only three times in the last 27 years have we had a second round without a 12 seed. In the last 11 years we have seen at least one 12 seed in the Sweet 16 eight times. Since 1985 only the 10 seed, with 20, has more Sweet 16 berths than the 19 from the 12 seeds. The only time that two lovable 12-seed underdogs have made the Sweet 16 in the same year, though, was in 2008. And the clock clearly strikes midnight after two wins — the 12s are a brutal 1-18 in the Sweet 16 and have never won an Elite Eight game.

The Elite Eight is not the exclusive domain of elite teams. There has been at least one team seeded sixth or lower among the last eight standing 22 times in the last 27 years. As last year showed us with Butler and VCU it’s not uncommon for there to be more than one, or for the teams to look pretty good once they get there.

I’ll leave you with a strange and amazing stat. In the round of 32 we have seen two teams seeded sixth or lower pull off first-round upsets and play each other 29 times. The higher-seeded team in those cases is incredibly dominant. They have won 26 of the 29 meetings, including each of the last 10 dating back to 1998.

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