I think that, for a surprising number of people, the single most overlooked aspect of the quality of a team in the NFL is the strength of the schedule that they are facing. A relatively easy schedule can make an average team look good and a good team look exceptional. On the other hand, there are many cases where a schedule filled with difficult opponents and rough trips has led to a disappointing result for a team that had higher hopes. Need proof? The Bears were the top team in the NFC. Their opponents had a pitiful .445 record the past season, the worst of any team. They succeeded in part because they were good, but were aided by the schedule makers. The Chargers topped the AFC, and their schedule was only a little tougher at .457. In 2005, the Chargers opponents were much tougher - .559 - and the team won five fewer games.

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In the last 10 seasons there have been 62 teams that have won four-plus games more in a season than they did in the previous year. Of those, 51 have had a schedule with opponents who combined to have a record below .500 in the previous season. Given that overwhelming connection (82 percent of significantly improved teams enjoyed a weak schedule), it seems unlikely that any single thing would be more of a contributing factor to the relative success of a team than their opponents.

The calculation of the NFL strength of schedule is a very simple thing. All you need to do is add together all of the wins of the 16 opponents on a team's schedule from the previous year, and then add together all of the losses. You are left with a single win-loss record, and dividing the number of wins by the sum of the wins and losses will give you the win percentage. Once you have it calculated (or you can always look for it on the Internet), you can use it both as a measure of the difficulties a team faces relative to other teams in its division, conference, or the league, or as a comparison between the schedule they face this year and what they faced last year.

There is one very important thing to remember about strength of schedule. Like all statistics it has its limitations. In this case, the biggest problem is that it deals with what the teams were like last year, and does nothing to account for how those teams have improved or gotten worse since last season. If a team added a quarterback or other significant player through free agency then they could be much better than their previous record would indicate, and vice versa if their roster was challenged by injuries, defections or retirements. Therein lies the challenge of the NFL strength of schedule, then - you can get in real trouble if you ignore it, but you can also get yourself in trouble if you rely on it too blindly. Nobody ever said that handicapping was easy.

Looking at the strength of schedule for 2007 brings up a number of interesting situations and possibilities. Here's a look at a few that have caught my eye:

1. Things could get really ugly for the Raiders. Last year they faced a .516 schedule, and they looked pretty awful, particularly offensively, against it. This year makes last year look like a cakewalk. Their .539 schedule is tied for the toughest in the league with Buffalo (another team that could be in trouble unless J.P. Losman suddenly discovers a new level of play). Oakland's quarterbacking situation has the potential to be a complete mess, and the rest of the skill positions on the offensive side of the ball aren't exactly dominant enough to overcome any challenges at pivot.

2. Jacksonville is another team that could have a rough road if they can't figure out which quarterback they are going to run with this year. The Jags have made it clear that they don't have a lot of faith in either of their starting options. One of the two had better step up given the .527 schedule that they face.

3. If New England finishes the season with 12 or more wins this year then they really will have accomplished something. They face a tough .535 schedule this season, which is the third hardest. On paper they are better than last year, but those improvements had better translate to reality, because they face a huge jump up from the .473 schedule against which they were 12-4 (10-6 ATS) last year. That is tied with division-mates Buffalo for the biggest increase of difficulty in the league.

4. If Arizona is ever going to improve and look like a real NFL team then this is the year to finally do it. They face the easiest schedule in the league at .461. That's a significant decrease in difficulty from the .500 of last year. San Francisco is another intriguing team that faces a potentially generous schedule - .469. If they can maintain and build upon the massive improvements they showed last year then it could playoff time in San Francisco for the first time in a while.

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5. The Bears must have embarrassing pictures of someone in the league office, because they got a gift again this year despite winning their conference last year. They move up from .445 to .465, but they still have the second easiest schedule in the league. Even Rex Grossman can look good against that pack of losers.

6. Tampa Bay may be a longshot to make the playoffs, but they certainly shouldn't end up at 4-12 again. Last year they had the third toughest schedule at .539, and they looked bad. This year they face a much more hospitable .473, and they have a significantly better quarterback to do it with.

7. The Saints looked great last year against a difficult .539 schedule, so they could really be special this year if they maintain their intensity and offensive explosiveness - they only face a .484 this year.