Many pro football handicappers use the NFL strength of schedule rankings to help them prepare for the football season. It's easy to calculate and it can be a nice tool to use for research purposes. However, it is not the absolute difference maker between a winning and a losing season, both for the bettor and for the team. It can, with a little digging, yield some valuable clues, though.

To figure the NFL strength of schedule, pick a team and simply add up all the wins and losses that their 2008 opponents had in 2007. Once those numbers are recorded, divide the number of wins by the sum of the wins and losses. For example, the Steelers 2008 opponents had 153 wins and 103 losses in 2007. So from here add the wins and losses (153 + 103 = 256) and divide the number of wins by that sum (153/256 = .598). The resulting .598 is the Steelers 2008 NFL strength of schedule percentage, which also happens to be the highest or most difficult percentage in the league.

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As stated before, it's not a given that a higher percentage will lead to a team having a worse record or that a lower percentage will lead to a team having a better record. That is far too simple a conclusion to draw and would quickly lead one down a path they probably do not want to tread. What I prefer to do is look for big swings in a team's record from one year to the next and then examine their performance in light of the strength of schedule.

As an example, we will take a look at the numbers from the last three NFL seasons. What you will notice is that teams typically fall back some after a good year (which we will define as 11 wins or more for this example) and rebound after a poor year (defined as five or fewer wins). In 2005 there were 10 teams that had 11 wins or more and nine of those teams had a worse record the next year. The results were not as drastic from 2006 to 2007, but of the five teams that had 11 or more wins in 2006, three of them had a worse record the next year. The same trend holds true at the opposite end of the spectrum. In 2005 10 teams had five or fewer wins on the season and seven of those teams had a better record in 2006. In 2006 six teams had five or fewer wins and all six of those teams improved in 2007.

So, how does all of this relate to NFL strength of schedule? Well, the data reveals that the biggest swings in team records from year to year are definitely affected by a change in the quality of one's opponents. I am going to show you a breakdown of six teams that I have identified as the biggest 'swingers' over the last three seasons and the results will reveal some distinct patterns as well as some anomalies.

New Orleans Saints: New Orleans finished the 2005 season at 3-13. The next season they jumped up to 10-6, a net increase of +7. Their strength of schedule for the 2006 season was the third most difficult in the league at .539, indicating their record should have shown marginal improvement at best. The Saints defied this assumption again last season. In 2007 they finished at 7-9, a net decrease of -3 from 2006, yet their strength of schedule was the 25th hardest in the NFL at .484. The makeup of the division might account for this discrepancy as almost the entire NFC South regressed while the Saints improved in 2006. Last year the Bucs rose to the top while the rest of the division faded.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers finished at 11-5 in 2005 and fell to 4-12 in 2006, a net decrease of -7. Their strength of schedule in 2006 was the fourth most difficult in the league at .539. Last year they rebounded to finish at 9-7, a net increase of +5. Their strength of schedule in 2007 was the 29th hardest at .473.

Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens, like the Saints, do not fit the formula but they illustrate another thing to be mindful of, which I will address in a minute. Baltimore finished the 2005 season at 6-10 and then jumped to 13-3 in 2006, a net increase of +7. Their strength of schedule in 2006 was the eighth most difficult at .523. Last season Baltimore dropped to 5-11, a net decrease of -8 from 2006. Their strength of schedule remained close to the same as the year before at .508. So here we have an example of a big swinger whose S.O.S. did not fluctuate that much but whose division regressed almost as a whole and then rebounded almost as a whole (exception: Bengals) from one season to the next.

Washington Redskins: The Redskins finished the 2005 season at 10-6 and then fell to 5-11 in 2006, a drop of -5. Their strength of schedule was the 12th most difficult in the league in 2006. Last year they finished at 9-7, a net increase of +4 from 2006. Their strength of schedule in 2007 was 20th at .500.

New York Jets: New York finished the 2005 season at 4-12. They leaped to 10-6 in 2007 on the legs of the league's 28th hardest schedule (.465), a net increase of +6 from 2005. Last season they came crashing back to earth, finishing at 4-12, a net decrease of -6 from 2006. Their strength of schedule was the seventh most difficult in the NFL in 2007 at .516.

Green Bay Packers: Green Bay finished the 2005 season at 4-12, but improved to 8-8 in 2006, a net increase of +4. The Packers had the easiest schedule in the league in 2006 at a percentage of .449. Green Bay improved again last season, going to 13-3, a net increase of +5. Green Bay, again, took advantage of an easy schedule (23rd at .492).

One interesting tidbit about these teams is that three of them had new coaches when they made their big jump (Saints, Jets, and Packers). This year's new coaches whose team's bombed last season: John Harbaugh (Baltimore), Mike Smith (Atlanta), and Tony Sparano (Miami). Draw your own conclusions there.

After looking at those clubs, it is evident that S.O.S can play a part in a big swing. With that in mind, here are some clubs to keep an eye on for the upcoming season:

Kansas City Chiefs: Last season KC had a net drop of -5 from the 2006 season. Their strength of schedule in 2007 was the sixth most difficult in the league. Their strength of schedule in 2008 is the 26th hardest in the league at .453. A rebound may be in order for Herm Edwards young squad.

Green Bay Packers: They Packers have improved two years n a row now and they took advantage of one of the leagues easiest schedules. This season they will draw some tougher competition with the 12th most difficult schedule in the NFL (.531). Are the Packers set to return to earth in 2008?

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New York Jets: The Jets fell big last year, as pointed out (-6). They could not keep up with the seventh most difficult schedule in football. They can breathe easier for two reasons this year: they have a Hall of Fame quarterback and the NFL's 25th hardest schedule at .457. Will Mangini get them back to the playoffs?

Cleveland Browns: Romeo Crennel's team surprised everyone last year by improving six games and finishing at 10-6. They may find the sledding a little tougher this year as their strength of schedule jumps from .508 to .547.