2023 Oklahoma City Thunder Predictions with Futures Odds and Expert NBA Picks
The Oklahoma City Thunder got an extra year of tanking thanks to the absence of Chet Holmgren for the entirety of last season, and they are poised to make a big leap, and feature in the postseason. An extremely talented young core led by sudden MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will look to bring the Oklahoma City Thunder their first playoff series win since they had Kevin Durant back in 2016.
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Oklahoma City Thunder Offseason Recap
The Thunder were very quiet in the offseason, electing to see what their plethora of young talent can do. The loss of the 2022 second overall pick Holmgren prevented the Thunder from taking the leap they expected, but the fantastic play of Gilgeous-Alexander was enough to have them feature in the play-in tournament. Holmgren is fully healthy and ready to give Victor Wembanyama competition for the Rookie of the Year honors. He will help the Thunder continue to climb up the Western Conference standings in the process.
The lone meaningful pickup they made was Victor Oladipo via free agency. Oladipo has struggled to stay healthy but the 31-year-old sharp shooter has the ability to heat up from deep in an instant. It remains to be seen how much playing time he will get, as the franchise may prioritize developing their young talent. However, if he can stay healthy, Oladipo can be impactful. They also locked up Carson Wallace to a rookie scale deal, but otherwise the Thunder’s offseason was very uneventful.
Oklahoma City Thunder Season Expectations
The Thunder will be able to compete with anyone on any given night, thanks to their bursting overflow of young talent. Gilgeous-Alexander is the star and leader of this team, exploding for 31.4 PPG on 51% from the floor last season. It was unquestionably the best season of the 25-year-old’s career, and his massive wingspan combined with lightning quick explosiveness makes him a valuable asset on both ends of the floor.
The franchise was forced to wait an extra year to see what Holmgren is capable of. However, considering the leaps they took last season, if he can live up to anywhere close to his potential, this team will be playing meaningful April basketball. His stature has been called into question, but his aggressiveness in the paint and solid footwork still makes him a tough man to get past, and on the other end of the floor, to stop from scoring. His free throws and 3 pointers are poor, but I don’t expect to find him strolling behind the arc very often, as the Thunder have no shortage of sharpshooters. The talent doesn’t end there, as 21-year-old Josh Giddey was very productive last season, putting up a team high 6.2 Assists, 7.9 Rebounds, and was second in scoring behind Gilgeous-Alexander with 16.6 PPG. A starting lineup rounded out by Luguentz Dort, who had a very productive FIBA World Cup with Canada, and Jalen Williams, will be able to cause damage in The Association.
The Thunder have a win total of 44.5 Wins, which, if achieved, would be their highest mark since 2018. There is a rightful sense of buzz in Oklahoma City, as the franchise welcomes in the next generation for the league and has legitimate aspirations of their first title since 1979 in the coming years.
Oklahoma City Thunder Schedule Breakdown
The Thunder open up the season with a pair of road games against the Bulls and Cavaliers, before treating the Thunder faithful to 6 straight home games to show off their flashy new toys. This will give their young team a chance to settle back in for the season in a familiar atmosphere and could allow them to get off to a hot start. A tough set of games follows their homestand, as they play 5 road games in a 6-game span, including road games against the Suns, Kings, and a pair against the Warriors. The 82-game season is grueling, but the young nature of the team will allow them to hopefully avoid the injury bug.
Oklahoma City Thunder Odds
The Thunder are pegged to have a solid regular season, with a win total of 44.5, but their inexperience has them sitting at a whopping +7000 to win the championship. Teams with similar win totals like the Mavericks (44.5), Heat (45.5), and Clippers (45.5) all have much better championship odds with +1800, +2000, and +1600 odds attached to their respective championships. This implies oddsmakers expect the Thunder to have a successful regular season but fail to make any significant postseason waves. It’s hard to argue with this, as the aforementioned teams all have proven championship caliber players, while the Thunder still have plenty to prove. Their young bodies are much more likely to be able to stay healthy throughout the entirety of the regular season, and it’s reflected in these odds.
While they may not go deep, the Thunder are a chalky -150 to qualify for the postseason for the first time since 2020, which will be a relief to the Thunder faithful. Even if they cannot win the title, acquiring valuable playoff experience for their team of youngsters will go a long way in setting them up to compete in future seasons.
Oklahoma City Thunder 2023-24 Season Predictions
If I could bet on the 2025-26 Championship now, the Thunder would be a great pick. They have an incredible amount of talent on their roster, but it’s difficult to imagine a world where the Thunder are competing this season. Gilgeous-Alexander will attempt to keep up his form from last season, and there are a wide range of breakout candidates on the team. Holmgren is a real wildcard for the Thunder, but I expect him to have a solid rookie campaign and challenge for the ROY title at +325 odds.
In the regular season, the Thunder will be able to stay healthy, which is becoming increasingly more of a concern in the NBA, and surpass their win total with a record of 47-35. In the in-season tournament, they find themselves behind the 8 ball, wedged in a group with the Warriors, Kings, Timberwolves, and Spurs. It’s unlikely they’ll be able to advance, but that won’t deter them from putting wins on the board. I’ll be sprinkling a few dollars on their title odds as the +7000 price is so appealing, and these odds will inevitably shrink when they live up to expectations. The best bet for OKC is on their win total, and we can sit back and watch this exciting Thunder team get a few upsets and use their speed and energy to shock a few of the heavyweights throughout the season.
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