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Super Bowl Handicapping
by T.O. Whenham - 01/23/2009

Click Here for 2009 Super Bowl 43 information including Super Bowl Betting Odds, Super Bowl Picks, and Super Bowl Squares

Handicapping the Super Bowl is not like handicapping any other football game. There is far more betting volume than any other game, far more scrutiny, and many more factors in play. If you are going to be successful at playing the game then you need to adjust your approach to handicapping. It doesn't have to be dramatic changes, but a shift in your mindset is certainly required. Here's a look at four different areas that you should think about when doing your Super Bowl handicapping:

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1. The lines are different for this game - The betting volume is going to be dramatically higher for this game than for any other. There are many people that will make their only bet of the year on this game. On top of that, the nature of the game leads a lot of serious gamblers to keep their smart money in their pocket. That means that the lines for this game are constructed in a different way than most. In most games, oddsmakers set the lines to ensure that they can't be heavily exploited by smart money. In this game, they are forced to set the lines so that they are not exploitable by the public. That might not sound like a big change, but it is. Smart money handicaps the games based on what they anticipate happening in the game. They don't have biases. The public, on the other hand, is all about biases. For the most part they love the favorite and the over. In a big game like this, then, the line is likely to be inflated to compensate for that public bias.

The trick, of course, is not to overreact to this inflation. It can be tempting to look at the underdog and the under because they have more room to play than normal. That's not always a good idea, though. The favorites can win this game, and the game can and does still go over. if you had parlayed the favorite and the over in the last 26 Super Bowls you would have won 10 times and you'd be showing a profit of more than eight units.

The best way to deal with the lines in this game is to ignore them. Instead, you should set your own line. By looking at the game however you choose to you can come up with a number that seems reasonable to you. Once you have a number, you can then determine a range around that number that you would be comfortable with. For example, if you think that a fair number would be to have our team favored by a field goal, then you probably wouldn't be interested in betting -3.5. If, on the other hand, your fair number was five, then you might be just as comfortable with six or even 6.5. Once you have determined your range you can compare it to the actual line to see if you have a betting opportunity. This is a solid approach at any time, but especially here.

The most important thing to remember is that you are not trying to figure out who is going to win the game. You only need to figure out who is going to cover. That's an important distinction, and one that most of the public won't be making.

2. Look for odd betting patterns - By looking at where the public is laying their money you can see if there is anything unexpected going on. For example, despite the fact that the Steelers are the clear public favorite in terms of sentiment and media perception, more bets have been placed on the Cardinals so far. It's hard to know what that means, but it does tell us that the line isn't likely to become anymore inflated towards the Steelers than it already is. It's also possible that the line wasn't particularly inflated this year in anticipation of the public being seduced by Arizona's potent offense.

3. Bet the game for what it is - This is a much harder game to handicap than regular season games. There is almost certainly less value in this game than the regular season. It only stands to reason, then, that you probably shouldn't bet as much on this game as you would on a regular season game. You also need to remember that this is just one game. During the season, a smart bettor would pass on any game that doesn't offer them an edge. Why would that be any different this week when there is just one game?

I'm not naive enough to believe that most bettors will stay away from betting the Super Bowl just because it doesn't present itself as a good investment. At the very least, then, take the time to think about why you are betting on this game. If you are betting so that you have a rooting interest in the game, and so that you will be able to talk trash when you win, then that is probably different motivation than regular season betting, and should be dealt with differently.

After you finish this NFL article check out our NFL Season Win Total Predictions page. When it comes to betting NFL our NFL Schedule Strength feature is a must for any NFL fan. Doc's understand reading football odds resource is a must read for NFL wagering. For 35+ years the team at Doc's Sports Service has provided and insight on NFL handicapping.

4. Bet on the Super Bowl props - The range and creativity of the prop bets that are available for this game are totally unique. Spending the time to peruse the props to look for ones that seem attractive can be fun and occasionally profitable. You need to use good judgment when you play them, though. There are so many that you can easily spend far more money than you expected. Many of the props are no more attractive to bet than a rigged coin flip, too, so avoiding those is good for the wallet.