On Feb. 5 the latest edition of the biggest sporting event on the planet will take place in Indianapolis. Super Bowl XLVI lacks the biggest names of this season thanks to an odd ride through the NFC Playoffs, but the game still promises to be a great one thanks to some nice storylines.
For bettors, the spectacle of the Super Bowl is unlike any other game. Teams are worn down after 18 or 19 games, they have two weeks to sit around and think about what is ahead of them, and the pressure and scrutiny on this game dwarfs all others. All the attention on the game means that betting volume is massive, and a large majority of the bettors are unsophisticated and thinking with their hearts rather than their heads.
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It is obviously very possible to successfully handicap the Super Bowl. To give yourself the best possible chance of doing so, though, you need to really think about what makes this game unique, and what that means for your betting. Here are three important tips for 2012 Super Bowl handicapping:
This is not your normal game
There is no sport more popular to bet on than the NFL, and no game that is even remotely as popular to bet on in the NFL than the Super Bowl. The numbers are massive — more than $100 million is wagered on the game in Las Vegas, and many times that amount is bet legally and illegally throughout the world. Throw in office pools and Super Bowl squares, and the betting handle is massive.
Many serious handicappers will make a bet on this game. The large majority of bets, though, will be made by public bettors. Many of those bettors don’t regularly bet on the NFL, and they aren’t likely to make bets based on sophisticated analysis or carefully considered insights.
Luckily, the public bettors tend to have predictable preferences. They tend to bet on the favorite, and because they love offense they typically bet on the ‘over’. Oddsmakers know this well, and they tend to set lines with the public preferences in mind. That means that as a general rule the lines in this game will tend to be inflated towards the favorite and the over.
It might seem that since the public is so predictable the smart move may be to bet the underdog and the ‘under’. It’s not that simple, though. Over the last 29 years you could have made a very nice profit by parlaying the over and the favorite. That means that it is very important to be aware of the heavy public action in this game, but you absolutely must avoid making big assumptions while doing so.
Avoiding assumptions will be especially important this year. New England has been installed as the favorite, but a solid majority of the action — more than 60 percent — has been on the underdog Giants so far. Early media coverage has steered the public towards the Giants so far as well. That early action stands to make this Super Bowl even tougher to predict than normal, and makes it especially important to pay attention to the betting action and the impact it is having on the game.
Tune out the hype
It is absolutely crucial for bettors to tune out all the hype surrounding the game when they are trying to pick a winner.
The media scrutiny around this game is like no other. That leads to a couple of problems. First of all, in the desire to create stories to interest their listeners or readers, media outlets will report any story that comes up whether it is ultimately significant or not. If you spend too much time listening to the reporting you are all but certain to hear things that aren’t true, or that just don’t matter. Second, there are a lot of ‘experts’ that emerge during the lead-up to the Super Bowl that don’t cover the league the rest of the year and who don’t really know much about the league. They will offer insight and analysis that might sound good, but you can’t be sure which advice is good and which should be ignored.
Successful bettors don’t rely on media coverage during the regular season. They look at statistics, matchups, motivation, and the real factors that impact the game. This is a bigger and more important game than all others, but it doesn’t make sense to move away from what works in those other games.
Look to the Super Bowl props
There are a huge number of prop bets offered on the Super Bowl, and more are offered every year.
Oddsmakers get very creative when posting props. Some of them — probably the majority — are sucker bets that you really shouldn’t be betting. If you spend your time looking closely at the prop bets, though, then you’ll quite possibly find a couple that offer very nice value — perhaps more value than you could find in the standard Super Bowl odds.
All you need to do is figure out what the prop bet is actually about, what the odds should be, and how that compares to what the odds actually are. It takes patience, creativity, and determination, but it’s certainly worth the effort.
Doc’s Sports is your one-stop destination for all things Super Bowl betting. Doc’s NFL handicappers are the best in the business and they will offer their expert Super Bowl picks for only $25. Their NFL picks for the big game will include props and a pick on the side or total. Also check Doc’s Sports for other Super Bowl betting features like printable Super Bowl squares, handicapping articles like betting on the Super Bowl coin toss and Super Bowl props betting tips.