Welcome to Doc's Sports Service 5 Dimes Banner
spacer  
spacer spacer
Welcome to Doc's Sports Service spacer
Welcome to Doc's Sports Service Welcome to Doc's Sports Service
Welcome to Doc's Sports Service
Click Here to Purchase Doc's Picks
Basketball Picks   |   Hockey picks   |   NBA picks
Football Picks   |   NFL Picks   |   Breeders Cup
spacer



Live Lines and Odds NFL Odds
spacer
College Football Odds
spacer
NBA Odds
spacer
College
   Basketball Odds

spacer
MLB Odds
spacer
NHL Odds
spacer
WNBA Odds
spacer
CFL Odds
spacer
Boxing Odds
spacer
Golf Odds
spacer
Soccer Odds
spacer
Week 7 NFL Odds
spacer
Doc's Rotation
spacer

Free Picks by Sport Free NFL Picks
spacer
Free College Football Picks
spacer
Free MLB Picks
spacer
Free NASCAR Picks
spacer
Free NBA Picks
spacer
Free College Basketball Picks
spacer
Free NHL Picks
spacer
All Free Picks
spacer

Handicapping Matchup Reports NFL
spacer
NCAA Football
spacer
NBA
spacer
NCAA Basketball
spacer
MLB
spacer
NHL
spacer

Scores NFL
spacer
NCAA Football
spacer
NBA
spacer
NCAA Basketball
spacer
MLB
spacer
NHL
spacer

Schedules NFL Schedule
spacer
College Football Schedule
spacer
College Basketball Schedule
spacer
MLB Schedule
spacer
NBA Schedule
spacer
NHL Schedule
spacer
Monday Night Football Schedule
spacer

Upcomming Event Coverage Monday Night Football Picks and Predictions
spacer
2014 Heisman Trophy Odds
spacer
MLB Futures Odds
spacer




5Dimes Banner
spacer
spacer
Home
spacer
View Picks
spacer
Why Doc's Sports?
spacer
Our Betting System
spacer
Sports Betting Strategy
spacer
Message from the GM
spacer
Our Commitment
spacer
Customer Comments
spacer
Free Picks
spacer
Contact Doc's
spacer

The Advisory Board
Our Commitment
spacer
Doc's Sports
spacer
Robert Ferringo
spacer
Allen Eastman
spacer
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
spacer
Indian Cowboy
spacer
Jason Sharpe
spacer
Strike Point Sports
spacer
Mike Davis
spacer

Betting Systems
11th Hour Sports
spacer
The Prop Machine
spacer

Recomended Sportsbooks Bovada Sportsbook
spacer
5Dimes Sportsbook
spacer
BookMaker
spacer
Sportsbook
spacer
Carbon Sports
spacer
WagerWeb
spacer
BetOnline Sportsbook
spacer
GT Bets
spacer
SportsBettingOnline.ag
spacer
Sportsbook Bonus
spacer

Handicapping Resources
Mobile Website Directions
spacer
Weekly NFL Survivor Pool Picks
spacer
NFL Power Rankings 2014
spacer
NFL Office Pool Picks
spacer
Sports Betting Money Managment
spacer
Handicapping FAQ
spacer
Sports Betting 101
spacer
How To Betting Articles
spacer
Sports Betting Tips
spacer
Parlay Calculator
spacer
Sports Betting Systems
spacer
Parlay Cards
spacer
Gambling Terms
spacer
2014 Archives
spacer
2013 Archives
spacer
2012 Archives
spacer
2011 Archives
spacer
2010 Archives
spacer
Doc's Affiliate Program
spacer
Doc's Writer Bios
spacer
Doc's rss feedDoc's RSS feed



spacer
spacer

2014 Super Bowl Handicapping
by - 1/22/2014

Share |
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jermaine Kearse

After all this waiting, the Super Bowl is finally around the corner. We know who is playing, and now we can focus on 2014 Super Bowl handicapping. When embracing that monster of a task, there is one sentence to keep in mind more than any other if you want to succeed:

This is not just another game

If you can remember that then you will be in good shape. Sure, in a lot of ways it is just another game. The team that scores the most points will win, they will play for 60 minutes, and so on. In fact, it can be easy to dismiss the differences and convince yourself that this is just like any other game. While doing that is important from a betting perspective — you don’t want to be making betting decisions here that you wouldn’t make on another day — it is dangerous from a handicapping perspective.

Free $60 in Member Super Bowl Picks No Obligation Click Here

So, how is it different, and how does it matter for handicapping. Here are six ways:

Crowd: The crowd is large for the Super Bowl, but it is shockingly quiet. Only a small portion of the tickets are allocated to the fans of each team, and many of those are resold to brokers. The large majority of people attending don’t have a particular affiliation to either team, and many are there for corporate schmoozing, not hardcore cheering. Both Denver and Seattle benefit from very loud crowds at home, but neither is going to enjoy that here. This is every bit a neutral-site game.

Length of game: This game takes forever. Much longer than a usual game. The commercial breaks are longer. The pre-game ceremonies stretch out forever. The halftime is much longer than normal. It is much harder to maintain any rhythm in this game than most, and teams that like to play quickly can be particularly frustrated.

Pressure: This is the game that every kid who starts playing football dreams of winning one day. Combine that lifetime of anticipation with more public and media attention than any other game by a factor of 10 and you have incredible pressure on every player and coach in this game. Some players and coaches handle that pressure much better than others, but it is a factor for every guy.

Prep time: The teams get a week at home to get ready for this game before heading to the host city for a week. We know during the regular season how unpredictable teams can be after a bye week, and this is like a bye week on steroids.

Halftime: Halftime in the Super Bowl is much longer than in a regular game to accommodate the fancy show. That can have both positive and negative effects. Being longer, it can knock players out of their rhythm and cause them to tighten up and feel their bangs and bruises. On the other hand, though, the extra time gives the better coaching staff a distinct advantage. They have more time to plan and implement the adjustments that will make a difference in the second half. For this reason I give more weight to the quality of the coaching staff and their ability to adjust in this game more than in any other — and it’s a significant factor in my eyes at all times.

Public action: When the public bets on a game, crazy things can happen. This is the game on which the public bets much, much more than any other game all year. They bet a ton on the sides and totals, and they will pour money on prop bets as well. The books have a whole lot at stake for this game, so you can be certain that they will be doing everything they can to make a profit. That means that when they set lines and when they move them they are calculating what makes the most sense. It could be easy to make assumptions about what the public is doing and what it means. Those assumptions are dangerous, though, because they may not always be true. For example, the public typically likes the favorites, yet in the championship round they were on the underdogs quite heavily in both games — and lost both bets as a result.

Instead of basing your decisions on assumptions and generalizations, you need to learn everything you can about how the public is betting and what that means for the game. Early action came in very heavily on the Broncos, and the line swung by as much as five points initially before settling down as a result. It will be important to see if that kind of support continues or if the public has different ideas as they get more involved in betting on the game.

Get free picks from any Doc’s Sports handicapper – there is no obligation for this offer and no credit card required. Just sign up for an account, and you can use the $60 in free picks for any Doc’s Sports Advisory Board handicapper and any sport. Click here to get started now.

Read more articles by

Share |

Most Recent Super Bowl Betting Articles