The Super Bowl is, from a betting perspective and every other one for that matter, an entirely different football game than every other one that is played each year. In fact, if it weren't for the fact that it's such a spectacle and that you're going to be watching it so you have to bet on it, it's the kind of game that you probably wouldn't go anywhere near as a bettor in normal circumstances. There are so many unique factors that affect the game, and so many reasons that players could play less than at their full potential, that the game is just an unpredictable mess.
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Because we can't pass on this game in good conscience it's important that we spend a little time thinking about how this game differs from regular games, and what that means to our handicapping. Here's a look at three things to consider:
1. These are not your typical lines - The betting volume for this game is going to be dramatically higher than it is for other games - many times higher than most games. That's because there is only one game to bet on, there are two weeks to prepare for the game, and there are all sorts of people who will bet on this game that wouldn't bet on any other game during the season. The large majority of the people who are betting on this game - the ones who don't normally bet - are far from seasoned bettors. The betting public is unpredictable and powerful at the best of times, but leading up to the Super Bowl their power to move and affect the line is massive. That means that, more than ever, the oddsmakers have to work to set a line that not only reflects what they think is going to happen in the game, but also how they think that the public is going to respond to their line. The public almost always likes the favorite and the ‘over’, so the line is almost certainly going to be pushed higher than it would be if the linesmakers were able to set the lines exclusive of the public's opinion.
It's not as easy as just thinking that you should take the ‘under’ and the underdog because the the public has forced the line higher than it probably should be - though I wish that it were that easy. If you had parlayed the ‘over’ and the favorite in each of the last 27 times then you would have won 10 times - enough to make a decent profit. Overreacting to the public bias in this game is just as dangerous as ignoring the impact of the public.
So, we can't trust the line, but we can't underestimate the movement, either. So what does that leave us with? The only real choice in a game like this in which there is so much uncertainty is to make a line of your own. Once you have figured out what the line should be in your eyes then you can compare your number to the numbers that are available. If your number differs significantly from the line then you have real value and you are in business. If your line and the posted line are in the same ballpark then there isn't value and you have to figure out a different strategy for making a Super Bowl pick - like which uniform you like better.
2. Look for strange line movement - Because there is so much odd pressure on the lines in this game, strange betting patterns can be even more significant here than in regular games. As soon as this year's line was posted, heavy action on the Colts moved the line up by two points. Since then it hasn't moved. Any movement from where it is now, then, would be significant. If it continued to rise then there would be continued support for the Colts - not surprising given that they are a public team with an MVP under center. If it doesn't move or even falls, though, then it would indicate that there is increasing support on the Saints as the game gets closer. That would be interesting and unexpected, and you would want to figure out why that is and what it means for your handicapping.
After you finish this NFL article check out our NFL Season Win Total Predictions page. When it comes to betting NFL our NFL Schedule Strength feature is a must for any NFL fan. Doc's understand reading football odds resource is a must read for NFL wagering. For 35+ years the team at Doc's Sports Service has provided and insight on NFL handicapping.
3. Bet the props - The most unique thing about the Super Bowl is the number and variety of prop bets that are available. They aren't available like this any other time of the year, so you might as well jump right into them. There are a couple of ways that you can approach the props. There are some that you can apply real logic to. With so many props set you can almost certainly study and do your research and find a few that offer a surprising amount of value. Then there are the props that are way to ridiculous to even make sense, but which are too fun to pass up on - the length of the anthem, the number of times the announcers will talk about food, the color of the Gatorade dumped on the wining coach, and so on. They are terrible bets - but only if you lose.
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