Betting on who is going to be the Super Bowl MVP might be the least interesting wager that you make this year.
It’s gotta be Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, right? With a total of 57.5 and two of the best offenses of the last 10 years on the field the winner of the Lombardi Trophy will be the triggerman of whichever attack puts up the most points next Sunday in Miami. It’s as if the entire bloody sport has been reduced to a game of Skee-Ball.
The problem is that the odds on Manning and Brees aren’t all that appealing. Manning is the obvious choice. He is one of the greatest quarterbacks in history and the insinuation is that, since his team is favored and expected to win, there isn’t really a competition here. As a result, Manning is listed at -250. Maybe its easy money or maybe it’s a sucker bet. But I know this: those odds don’t scream “value” to me.
Brees is currently at +300. That seems juicy enough but, again, you can only be willing to make that play if you think that New Orleans won’t pee down its own leg and that they actually have a chance at winning this game. And if that’s the case betting on Brees may seem like a better wager than just a straight New Orleans money line play (value: +175) because, as I mentioned, his team will have to win for the quarterback to be the MVP.
So there you have it. Heads (Manning) is at -250 and Tails (Brees) is at +300. In my opinion it really is that simple. The quarterback has been named the MVP in two of the last three years and in 10 of the last 20 Super Bowls. And with two such high-powered signal callers at the helm this year the rest of the Super Bowl MVP odds seem to be there simply to bait and taunt.
However the Super Bowl is still about surprises. And guys like Desmond Howard, Deion Branch, Dexter Jackson and Larry Brown have shown that lightning can strike. Those four players, unlikely as they may seem, have each won the Super Bowl MVP in the last 15 years. And even Santonio Holmes last year was a high-odds wager at the start of the night. So it is possible to cash in on someone other than the quarterbacks. So, for those that love a longshot, below is a look at some players who just might come out of nowhere and put forth an effort worth of adulation and award.
Here are Super Bowl MVP odds at some Super Bowl MVP predictions for players to take home a ring and a take a trip to Disney World:
Darren Sharper (+4000) – As you can see, two of the “surprise” Super Bowl MVP winners have been defensive backs. Sharper is the “quarterback” of the New Orleans secondary from his safety position and he will be the one matching wits with Manning and Indianapolis’ high-powered offense. Sharper has been one of the biggest playmakers in NFL history from the safety position. He has 63 interceptions and 11 touchdowns in his 13-year career, including nine INTs and three touchdowns this year alone. If he makes one or two picks or takes one to The House he could be a great payday at these odds.
Reggie Bush (+1400) – This one seems rather obvious as well and is kind of a sucker bet. But it could be worth a look. Bush is going to get as many touches as New Orleans can afford as a runner, receiver and kick returner. He has been one of the most overrated players in the NFL since he entered the league. But I have to admit that he’s been running hard and with purpose lately. If he runs a kick back and manages another score, or if he ends up with 20 total touches and a lot of screen time, he might be able to sucker this award out of the voters. Running backs never seem like a bad choice but one hasn’t earned the award in more than 11 years and only three backs – Terrell Davis, Emmitt Smith and O.J. Anderson – have been the MVP in the last 25 years.
Dallas Clark (+1500) – You don’t really want to have your money down on a tight end in a Super Bowl that boasts so many weapons. But Clark is Manning’s security blanket and could cause a lot of matchup issues for the Saints. He caught 100 passes this year and Manning has proven is that if he gets a mismatch on Clark he will go to him and go to him and go to him. The problem with any Colts receiver – I would not bet on any of them with their Super Bowl MVP odds – is that even if one of them has a monster game (like 10 catches, 180 yards and two touchdowns) that credit is going to go to Manning first and the wideout second.
Marques Colston (+1200) – Colston has been quiet lately but he is still Brees’ go-to guy. And if any single receiver is going to have a monster day I would think that it will be one of the top wideouts in the league. You’re going to have the same problem betting on Saints receivers to win the MVP – Brees is going to get the credit – but Colston is the type of talent that can single-handedly have a monster game.
Robert Mathis (+5000) – With Dwight Freeney likely out of this game now all of the attention will be shifted to Mathis. However, the speedy sack specialist can be exceptional at times. He only had 9.5 sacks this year but because the Saints will be throwing the ball so much he’ll have ample opportunity to get to Brees and make some big plays. And because Freeney won’t be on the other side he’ll likely get even more credit for any achievements. Only three defensive players have won the award since Richard Dent took the hardware in 1986 so banking on a D-End is about as big of a gamble as you can get.
Field (+1000) – One of the great things about the Super Bowl is that you just never know who is going to come out of nowhere and have a big impact on the game. This field includes Antoine Bethea, the Colts stud safety, who could also produce some INTs as well as all of the cornerbacks on either defense. And with a significant amount of passes expected those guys will have a lot of opportunities to be either a hero or a goat. Also, Robert Meachem, who can be explosive for the Saints, is included in the Field. Finally, the Field includes the kickers. And you never know when someone is going to step up and bang four or five field goals, including a game-winner from almost 50 yards or something. I mean, it happens.
Here are the Super Bowl MVP odds:
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Austin Collie +2000
Dallas Clark +1500
Darren Sharper +4000
Devery Henderson +2500
Donald Brown +3300
Drew Brees +300
Dwight Freeney
Gary Brackett +5000
Jeremy Shockey +2800
Jonathan Vilma +4000
Joseph Addai +800
Marques Colston +1200
Peyton Manning -250
Pierre Garcon +1500
Pierre Thomas +1000
Reggie Bush +1400
Reggie Wayne +1000
Robert Mathis +5000
Will Smith +5000
Field +1000
Bodog Sportsbook •
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