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Super Bowl MVP Odds and Predictions
by Robert Ferringo - 1/26/2012

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New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady.

Super Bowl MVP odds and predictions basically come down to two questions:

1) Who do you think is going to win the game?
2) Who is that team’s quarterback?

It is no secret that the NFL has become almost solely a quarterback-driven league. Signal callers have always stolen the show in the sport and been the sources of the majority of acclaim (and criticism). And with the new rules that advocate and endorse passing as well as the rules that overly protect quarterbacks,The Most Difficult Position In Sports has, in a lot of respects, gotten a lot easier over the past several years.

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Since neither quarterbacks nor receivers can be touched by the defense the entire NFL has become a glorified seven-on-seven drill. Scoring is up and quarterbacks are putting up astronomical statistical numbers that previously could only be found in the video game realm.

As such, Super Bowl MVP odds have gone from being one of the most debated topics leading up to The Big Game to essentially a coin flip contest. The discussion is now solely about which team is going to win the game with the assumption that the victorious quarterback will be given a trip to Disneyland to go along with the Lombardi Trophy.

Super Bowl 46 is no exception. The two leading men in The Big Game are New England quarterback Tom Brady and New York quarterback Eli Manning. The success or failure of their respective teams is believed by the bobblehead media to rest almost entirely on their broad shoulders.

As such, they are the two favorites to win the Super Bowl MVP. Brady is presently at +130 to win the award, which would be his third, while Eli Manning is a close second at +210 to claim the MP for a second time.

Aaron Rodgers won the Super Bowl MVP last season at +130 odds. He followed Drew Brees (+160) from the year prior and Rodgers marked the fourth time in five years that the MVP was a signal caller.

Quarterbacks have won the award an overwhelming majority (compared to any other position) of the time. Signal callers have been voted MVP in 24 of 45 Super Bowls. The next closest position is running back, with seven times.

While the award has become almost solely the property of the winning Super Bowl quarterback, there are still Super Bowl MVP odds available on about 30 individual players. And when you consider “The Field” is also a wager, every player that suits up for Super Sunday has a shot at winning the award and cashing a ticket for a daring gambler.

However, I never feel as if the odds are juicy enough for the random lot of players remaining in case a non-quarterback does take the hardware.

For instance, New England running back Danny Woodhead is presently +5000 (50-to-1) to win the Super Bowl MVP. That’s it? If it were +25000 (250-to-1) I would still hesitate. I mean, just think about what Woodhead would have to do to outshine Tom Brady. Basically, he would have to sing the “National Anthem”, run for about 140 yards, score at least two touchdowns, dump the Gatorade over Bill Belichick’s head and maybe kick an extra point or three for good measure.

If you are going to bet on the Super Bowl MVP odds you should simply bet on the quarterback of the team you think will win. But if you are a little more adventurous, below is a shortlist of Super Bowl MVP odds and predictions, with odds courtesy of Bovada, based on the value of several non-quarterback players that could surprise:

Rob Gronkowski (+750) – Gronkowski has become one of the most dominant offensive weapons in the league, registering 90 receptions for 1,327 yards and 18 touchdowns this season. “Gronk” has 23 catches for 360 yards and five touchdowns in his last three games and is a beast. If he goes off for a multiple touchdown game it is possible that he could usurp Brady’s award.

Ahmad Bradshaw (+2200) –As stated, running backs have won the Super Bowl MVP award the second-highest number of times. But the last to do it was Terrell Davis in 1998. The days of the workhorse back are over. But Bradshaw could log 25-30 touches in this game both running and passing. The problem with this wager is that if the Giants go to Brandon Jacobs at the goal line he could vulture Bradshaw’s touchdowns. And it would take at least two scores and 150 yards for a running back to break the quarterback stranglehold.

Victor Cruz (+1200) –The Giants have two extremely explosive receivers that should give New England’s shoddy secondary fits. Cruz is like a poor man’s Steve Smith (from Carolina), and he has had 140 or more receiving yards in four of his past nine games. Cruz caught 10 passes for 142 in the NFC Title game and he has had two touchdowns of 70 or more yards in the past five weeks.

Hakeem Nicks (+1400) – Nicks is not far behind Cruz in terms of his game-breaking ability. He has had four touchdown passes so far in three postseason games, even though he was shut out of the end zone in the title game. Nicks caught a game-turning touchdown in the Green Bay Divisional Round game, hauling in a Hail Mary pass just before the half. He has two games of 160 or more yards in his past seven and has notched three touchdowns of 60 or more yards in that span. These odds are still too low for my blood, but Nicks and Cruz are decent sleeper picks.

Wes Welker (+1500) – It would be extremely difficult for Welker to really outshine Brady, since “Tom Terrific” is the one delivering Welker the ball on those short hitches and slants that Welker is known for. But Welker has had three games this year where he caught 11 or more balls and one game with over 200 yards. A performance like that would definitely get him some consideration.

Jason Pierre-Paul (+3000) – Only two defensive ends have ever won the Super Bowl MVP and I think that the odds should be higher on Pierre-Paul and Osi Umenyiora (as low as 50-to-1 at some books). But Pierre-Paul or one of the Giants linemen could come out of nowhere to be named Super Bowl MVP if they were to record two or three sacks, as well as perhaps a fumble or even a defensive score. If the Giants win their front four will have to dominate. And if they do one of them could be singled out.

The Field (+2000) – Both kickers are listed at +10000 even though no kicker has ever won the award. Most of the defensive players are listed at +5000 as well, even though only eight have ever won the award and just two (Dexter Jackson and Ray Lewis) has won the Super Bowl MVP in the last 15 years. But The Field could be worth a bet. It is rare, but some players have come out of nowhere to win the MVP. Besides Jackson, other surprise winners have included Deion Branch in Super Bowl 39, Desmond Howard in Super Bowl 31 and Larry Brown in Super Bowl 30. 

Robert Ferringo has produced $4,000 in football profit for his clients since the end of November and has earned his backers over $16,000 in profit in all sports this fall and winter. He has posted a profit in four straight Super Bowls and six of seven and he will have a full compliment of selections available on Feb. 2. You can CLICK HERE for more info.

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